Jobs Day in 'merica. Markets estimate 214K increase in the headline number, but the end of strikes and waning imapct of hurricanes seem to be justifying a higher "whisper number".
BTC 100K is all the rage. Remember when about two months ago the HBO's documentary "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" was going to unveil Satoshi and change the world? Maybe it did. Anyway it still feels somewhat incongruent to me that people measure Bitcoin wealth in Dollars and still largely go through large intermediaries to transact and exchange their Bitcoin back to spendable currency. I don't know if I'm correct, but when it comes to crypto I find it paradoxical that so much of crypto is reliant on systems it allegedly seeks to disrupt, including large intermediaries, even moreso now with crypto ETFs. We also tend to overlook the fundamental reliance cryptocurrencies have on stable electrical grids, internet and much of the modern technology infrastructure, including compute. Human behavior seems be largely timeless, greed, fear, etc. and it will be interesting to see if crypto can defy the odds that prevail in history, such as the fact that when large institutions start to profit massively from something, that tends to led to centralization, rarely decentralizing. Time will tell if this time will be different and the original aspirations of Bitcoin can come to fruition.
In data, jobless claims rose, but remain benign. Away from data we got a new post from Roaring Kitty on X, with some fake Time Magazine cover picture that some speculate might be related to Google. Major stock indexes fell and bond yields were little changed. We head into Jobs with a 2Y at 4.15% and a 10Y at 4.18%
In international news, Macron faces calls for resignation, as the government collapses, but he vows to stay in office and name a new PM soon. However, with both ends of the political spectrum largely aligned against Macron is likely to make for an interesting next several days and weeks. We also still don't know what happens next in S. Korea.
Closer to home we had an offshore earthquake that originally sparked short-lived tsunami warnings for parts of northern Cali and Oregon, there were no initial reports of major damage. As of the time of this writing, the assassain of United Healthcare's CEO remains at large, with the police providing that shell casings contained the words “deny,” “defend” and “depose” which are phrases associated with criticism of the health insurance industry's reputation of denying services and payment.
On the day ahead it's all about J.O.B's.
XTOD: “Hawk Tuah girl released a shitcoin and scammed her audience? That could never be me, I’ve got my money in low cost mutual funds and T-bills earning a stable coupon”
XTOD: JOHN WALSH: "I don't think the shooter was a pro. I never came across a really good pro, because if they were a good pro, you wouldn't know. A real pro would have worn sunglasses. His gun was half-assed probably built off of YouTube. Someone may have paid him, but you never know when people are hurting. This company hurt a lot of people, so it may be someone out of control who knows someone who died."
XTOD: There ain't no such thing as a free Strategic Bitcoin Reserve free lunch: the BITCOIN Act's plan for financing such a reserve will actually add _more_ to our nation's debt burden than if the Treasury financed the purchase through outright borrowing.
XTOD: Jeff Bezos: “Thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy”
Bezos is asked where he gets the confidence to even attempt to build companies of such massive scale, like Amazon and Blue Origin.
He responds: “I think it’s generally human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity. And so I think entrepreneurs in general would be well-advised to try and bias against that. The risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive… You say it’s confidence, but maybe I’m just accepting that human bias and trying to compensate against it. The second thing I would point out is that thinking small is a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Video source: @nytimesevents (2024)
https://x.com/litcapital/status/1864783009255190905
https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1864487345896214973
https://x.com/GeorgeSelgin/status/1864713604613763384
https://x.com/StartupArchive_/status/1864653025920602255
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