Edward Quince’s Wisdom Bites: Finding Your Fixed Point in a Volatile World

We talk a lot about volatility here. We measure it with the VIX, we stress about it during earnings season, and we pay expensive fees to hedge funds promising to dampen it. But rarely do we talk about the internal mechanism required to survive it.

Today’s wisdom comes from Myron Scholes. Yes, that Scholes—the Nobel laureate of Black-Scholes fame. While his mathematical models attempted to price risk and options, his philosophical take on the relationship between volatility and time offers a profound lesson for the individual investor trying to navigate a chaotic world.

The Wisdom Bite:

"Everything in life is volatility times time. As volatility increases, time compresses. But what we care about is the validity of the fixed point. If we lose it, everything in the past becomes meaningless."

When Time Compresses

"As volatility increases, time compresses." Anyone who lived through the GFC in 2008, the Covid crash of 2020, or even a sudden flash crash knows this feeling viscerally. During a market panic, a day feels like a month. A week feels like a decade. You check your portfolio at 9:30 AM, and by 10:00 AM you have aged five years.

In these moments of compressed time, our biological wiring goes haywire. We are programmed for survival, which means "fight or flight." In finance, that translates to "sell everything" or "buy the top" in a FOMO frenzy. We lose our ability to think about the long term because the short term has become so loud, so violent, and so consuming. The "long run" suddenly shrinks to the next five minutes.

The Necessity of the Fixed Point

Scholes mentions the "validity of the fixed point." For an investor, this "fixed point" is your Investment Policy Statement (IPS), your core philosophy, or your "North Star." It is the pre-commitment you made when the skies were clear and your heart rate was resting.

If you don't have a fixed point—if you don't know why you own what you own, or what your time horizon actually is—volatility will wash you away. You will become the "six-foot-tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average." You drown because you panic in the deep spot, losing your footing because you forgot where you were trying to go.

The Financial Takeaway

If you lose your fixed point, "everything in the past becomes meaningless." All the years of disciplined saving, all the dividends reinvested, all the prudent decisions—they are vaporized in one moment of panic-selling at the bottom.

You cannot predict the storm. We’ve established that forecasting is a "fool's errand." But you can build an anchor. Before the next crisis hits (and it will), define your fixed point. Is it a specific retirement date? Is it a commitment to own high-quality businesses forever? Write it down. When time compresses and the noise becomes deafening, look at the fixed point, not the ticker tape.

Edward Quince’s Wisdom Bites: We Are The Market

Missed posting last week, whoops! I won't make it up to you. 

We spend an inordinate amount of time discussing "the market" or "the economy" as if they are weather patterns—external forces that happen to us, completely outside our control. We check the CPI print like we check the rain forecast. We talk about a "vibecession" as if it’s a flu bug going around.

But today’s wisdom comes from a source far removed from Wall Street, yet perhaps more relevant to our current malaise than any Fed governor. Writing in the 5th century, Saint Augustine of Hippo offered a perspective on "hard times" that cuts through the noise of modern financial fatalism.

The Wisdom Bite:

“Bad times, hard times, this is what people keep saying; but let us live well, and times shall be good. We are the times: Such as we are, such are the times.”

The Myth of the External Market

In finance, we often fall into the trap of thinking the market is a distinct entity. But Augustine’s logic reminds us of a fundamental truth: We are the market.

The economy is not a machine; it is a complex adaptive system made up of the aggregate decisions of millions of individuals. When we collectively hoard cash out of fear, we create the recession we dread. When we collectively chase speculative assets like meme coins or the latest AI hype because of envy, we create the bubbles that eventually burst. The "times" are not imposed upon us; they are a reflection of our collective character, prudence, and fortitude.

Reflexivity and Responsibility

George Soros famously coined the term "reflexivity" to describe how market participants' views influence the market, which in turn influences the participants' views. Augustine was essentially preaching reflexivity 1,500 years before Soros.

If you are constantly doom-scrolling, sharing pessimistic takes on X (formerly Twitter), and making investment decisions based on fear, you are actively contributing to the "bad times." Conversely, if you act with prudence, focusing on value and long-term compounding, you contribute to a stable, functioning capital market.

The Financial Takeaway

Stop waiting for the Fed to make the times "good" again. Stop waiting for a particular election result to fix your portfolio. As Augustine suggests, the quality of the times depends on the quality of our actions.

If you want a healthier market, be a healthier investor. Do you want a market that values substance over hype? Then stop buying hype. Do you want an economy that rewards long-term thinking? Then stop trading on short-term noise. We cannot control the geopolitical winds or the supply chains, but we can control our contribution to the aggregate. If you invest with integrity and discipline, you are—in a small but non-zero way—improving the "times" for everyone.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: Low Ego

Nas closes his masterclass with a lesson on temperament: “The liquidity is high, but the ego is low / Light years ahead of where the paper used to go”.

This is the definition of the "Inverse Degen" trader. High liquidity usually breeds high ego, leading to leverage, overconfidence, and eventual ruin. Nas treats his liquidity as optionality—dry powder waiting for an opportunity—rather than a scorecard to flash. He creates a "Margin of Safety" by keeping his ego small while his bankroll grows.

This "low ego" approach is the exact opposite of the "six-foot-tall man who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average". High ego investors assume they can navigate any volatility, so they leverage up. But as Howard Marks reminds us, leverage doesn't add value; it only magnifies outcomes and reduces survivability. Nas keeps his liquidity high so he never has to sell at the bottom to meet a margin call. He understands that in a market of "forced sellers" and "noise," the person holding the cash (liquidity) and the patience (low ego) holds all the cards when the cycle turns.

The Financial Takeaway: Markets punish overconfidence—slowly, then all at once. If your strategy requires constant public validation or "flashing" your wins, you are fragile. The ultimate financial flex is having the liquidity to act, but the discipline (and low ego) to wait.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: Amplifiers

 On Shine Together, Nas frames venture capital not as finance, but as recognition: “Angel investing in the angels that the world forgot / Turning a humble vision into a billion-dollar lot”.

This aligns with a core tenet of humanistic capitalism: capital doesn't create greatness, it amplifies it. However, the lesson here is about incentives. Nas didn't just throw money at charity cases; he invested where incentives were aligned, focusing on founders rather than fads. He understands that capital placed without alignment distorts, but capital placed with conviction compounds trust.

This approach stands in stark contrast to the "Idiot Lender" chronicles we’ve reviewed, where capital is deployed based on the foolish assumption that rates will always drop or that trends will last forever. Nas avoids the "blind capital" that Bagehot warned about—the money that seeks someone to devour it in a speculative frenzy. Instead, he looks for "asymmetric upside" in overlooked sectors. By investing in "the angels the world forgot," he is practicing a form of contrarianism, avoiding the crowded trades where "too much money chases too few deals" and securing a margin of safety through valuation and character.

The Financial Takeaway: Don't confuse "doing good" with "doing well." The best investments do both, but only when the incentives are clean. Look for the "angels the world forgot"—the undervalued assets with high character—rather than the hype the world is chasing.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: Exit Strategies

 Retail investors obsess over entry points (buying the dip); professionals obsess over exits (liquidity events). On My Story Your Story, Nas clarifies the endgame: “The exit strategy was always the goal / Now the equity’s a story that never gets old”.

Why is the equity story timeless? Because it provides detachment from the daily grind of inflation. Nas notes, “Inflation hitting the bodega, the price of the hero rose / But the value of the verses, only God knows”. This is a profound macro observation: Inflation destroys cash flow and purchasing power at the bodega, but it rewards scarce assets like intellectual property and equity.

Nas is essentially describing the difference between "nominal" and "real" assets. As we explored in the "Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," when government debts exceed the faith in repayment, you get inflation. In that environment, the "bodega" owner gets squeezed by rising input costs and a consumer with less purchasing power. However, the owner of intellectual property (the "verses") possesses an asset with infinite pricing power and zero marginal cost of reproduction. This is the ultimate hedge against the "debasement of currency". You want to own things that re-price upward when the Fed prints money, not things that require you to work harder just to stay in the same place.

The Financial Takeaway: Wealth that survives cycles must outlast narratives and retain pricing power independent of the CPI print. If you don't have an exit strategy—a way to eventually detach your lifestyle from your labor—you don't have an investment; you have a job.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: Teach The Kids The Index

Nas has always understood a truth that Wall Street often forgets during bubble cycles: ignorance is the most expensive tax you will ever pay. On Sons (Young Kings), he offers a curriculum change: “Teach ’em ’bout compound interest and the S&P / Before you teach ’em ’bout the streets and the vanity”.

The "vanity" of the streets is no different than the vanity of the "Degen" trader chasing meme coins; both are games of speed that punish late arrivals. Nas argues for the dull, relentless math of the S&P 500 over the adrenaline of the hustle. He extends this to the AI revolution as well, rapping, “AI creating the ghost, but the soul is mine / I'm investing in the code while I'm writing the line”. This is the ultimate hedge: don't fight productivity shocks, own the underlying code.

This advice is the antidote to the "noise addiction" prevalent in modern markets. As we saw with the "Hawk Tuah meme coin crash" and the endless parade of speculative "bonanzas" described in our 2024 retrospective, the hustle is often just a mechanism to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient. The "streets" and the "casino" both rely on the "Greater Fool Theory"—buying something solely in the hopes that a bigger idiot will pay more later. By focusing on the Index, Nas advocates for the "Nomad Investment" approach: recognizing that the only exponential factor in the wealth equation is time (n), not the velocity of your trading.

The Financial Takeaway: Hustle burns calories; compounding burns time. If your strategy relies on being smarter or faster than the market every day, you are fighting gravity. Teach yourself the index before you attempt the illusion of stock picking.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: The Plot Thickens

 Welcome back to the digital saloon. In looking at the evolution of Nasir Jones, we find the ultimate case study in moving from labor to capital. On NY State of Mind Pt. 3, Nas delivers a line that serves as a condensed MBA for the uninitiated: “From seed rounds to the skyscraper, the plot thickens / I’m still the same Nasir, just the cap table is different”.

This isn't just a rhyme; it is a recognition of the most important structural shift in finance: the move from the Income Statement to the Balance Sheet. Early hip-hop culture obsessed over liquidity: cash, cars, jewelry, because liquidity is the currency of survival. But Nas realized that liquidity is fleeting, while equity compounds. By pivoting into the "cap table"—owning pieces of Ring, Coinbase, and Dropbox—he stopped trading time for money and started trading capital for optionality.

The "cap table" represents a detachment from the daily grind of trading hours for dollars. It moves you from being a vendor of services to a compounder of value. When you are on the cap table, you are no longer fighting for a slice of the pie; you own the kitchen.

The Financial Takeaway: Check the cap table of your own life. If you don't own the asset, you are the asset, and someone else controls your payout curve. Real wealth isn't about the flash of income; it's about the "boring" silence of equity compounding in the background.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: Portfolio Mental Models

 If you’ve made it this far, you may be disappointed by the conclusion.

There is no grand unified theory of markets waiting at the end of this series. No single indicator. No master forecast. No cheat code for 2026.

That’s the point.

Markets are not solved with answers. They are navigated with judgment — and judgment is built from a portfolio of mental models, not a single idea held with religious conviction.

This series was never about predictions. It was about orientation.

Start With Humility, Not Forecasts

We began with the most uncomfortable truth in finance: you don’t know what will happen next.

Forecasting feels productive, but it mostly satisfies emotional needs — the need for certainty, narrative, and control. The smarter move is to accept radical uncertainty and build portfolios that can endure a range of outcomes.

Admitting “I don’t know” is not intellectual surrender. It is the foundation of intelligent risk management.

You prepare. You don’t predict.

Price Matters Because the Future Is Fragile

Whether we talked about CAPE ratios, bubbles, private credit, or speculative assets dressed up as investments, the message was consistent:

Price is the shock absorber between today and tomorrow.

High prices assume perfection. Low prices forgive disappointment. Everything in between is a wager on how wrong you’re willing to be.

Margin of safety is not about pessimism — it’s about respect for ignorance.

Cycles Are Not Optional

Every “new era” eventually meets the business cycle.
Every credit boom eventually meets the balance sheet.
Every stability regime eventually breeds instability.

The cycle doesn’t care about innovation, narratives, or good intentions. It only cares about cash flows, leverage, and time.

If you are betting against mean reversion, you may be right — but you must demand extraordinary evidence, and even more extraordinary pricing.

Liquidity Is Not Comfort — It Is Optionality

One of the quiet themes running through this series was liquidity — not as a market feature, but as a personal discipline.

Liquidity doesn’t exist to make portfolios feel safe. It exists to prevent forced behavior when conditions deteriorate.

Illiquidity is tolerable until it isn’t. When stress arrives, the inability to act becomes risk itself.

Liquidity is what allows patience to survive volatility.

Beware Stability That Comes From Opacity

Private credit, smooth returns, low volatility, and “defensive” assets all share a common danger:
they can confuse absence of information with absence of risk.

If the primary appeal of an asset is that it doesn’t move, ask whether it doesn’t move — or simply isn’t observed.

Volatility doesn’t create risk. It reveals it.

Policy Is Political, Always

Central banks are not physics engines. They are institutions staffed by humans, operating under political constraints, reputational risk, and fiscal reality.

The Fed reacts not only to inflation and employment, but to elections, debt sustainability, and credibility. Fiscal dominance, financial repression, and policy inconsistency are not tail risks — they are features of the environment.

Assume incentives matter. They always do.

Labor, Housing, and Capital Don’t Always Behave the Way Textbooks Say

A frozen housing market.
A labor market where no one quits or gets fired.
Capital cycles distorted by policy and narrative.

These are not signs of equilibrium — they are signs of friction.

When movement slows, pressure builds elsewhere. And pressure eventually escapes.

Static systems break suddenly.

Gold, Bonds, and “Safe” Assets Are Contextual

Gold is insurance, not yield.
Bonds are not always ballast.
Equities can sometimes behave like bonds — until they don’t.

No asset is permanently defensive. Correlations are regime-dependent. Protection must be diversified, imperfect, and constantly reassessed.

There is no single hedge — only trade-offs.

So What Is Wisdom in Markets?

Wisdom is not knowing what will happen next.

Wisdom is:

• Knowing what matters

• Knowing what doesn’t

• Knowing what you can control

• And knowing which mistakes are fatal versus survivable

Wisdom is resisting the urge to over-optimize for a single outcome and instead building resilience across many.

In other words, wisdom is portfolio construction — applied not just to assets, but to ideas.

The Final Lesson

If there is one thread tying these posts together, it is this:

The goal of investing is not brilliance.
It is durability.

Durability of capital.
Durability of temperament.
Durability of decision-making under pressure.

The investor who survives confusion, avoids ruin, and remains flexible will outlast the one chasing certainty, narratives, or perfection.

The future will not reward those who were the most confident.
It will reward those who were the least fragile.

That is the quiet advantage of wisdom.

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XTOD:
"It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results." — Warren Buffett