Sometimes the market feels like a finely choreographed dance, a bewildering beat remixing everything from scandal to commerce. Other days... well, other days it feels like the choreographer went on vacation and left the dancers standing around scratching their heads.
Yesterday felt a bit like that second scenario. After all the hullabaloo we often discuss: tariffs, Fed tea leaves, or the latest twists in the AI saga – today was... quiet.
We closed the day with the S&P little changed, just sitting there at 5,892. Yields on the 2Y and 10Y Treasuries continued on their recent climb, ending at 4.06% and 4.54% respectively. No major data bombs dropped. No headline shocks from Pennsylvania Avenue or Beijing. Just... stillness.
For those of us who spend our days swimming in the "daily madness of Mr. Market," a quiet day can almost feel unsettling. We're so used to the relentless stream of "news" and the temptation to abstract securities into flashing lights on a screen. But maybe, just maybe, a boring day is a gift.
It forces us to pause and remember that equities represent ownership in actual businesses, and bonds are promises from those businesses. It gives us a moment to step back from the noise and reflect on things that don't expire faster than a Bloomberg notification – you know, the timeless stuff.
In times like these, the "I Don't Know" mentality feels particularly apt. We don't know when the next burst of market "excitement" will arrive, or what will trigger it. Will it be the today’s PPI print, Powell, or yet another tariff update? Nobody knows.
But perhaps, on a boring day, we don't need to know. We can embrace the uncertainty with humility and focus on the virtues: patience, discipline, and the ability to not be driven crazy by either success or the lack thereof. Time, after all, is often the best filter.
So, as we await whatever the future brings – maybe more data to ignore, maybe more tariff talk – let's appreciate the quiet. It's a rare commodity in this market.
After all it was Blaise Pascal who said “All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone."
XTOD’s:
XTOD: The fiscal irresponsibility continues even as bond markets start to punish U.S.
XTOD: The two ways to get a great job in finance nowadays From Matt Levine’s Money Stuff https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gq200SKWQAARqdZ?format=jpg&name=medium
XTOD: Empower sill start offering private assets its retirement portfolios, working with Apollo and Franklin, the push to 'democratize' or dump (you could look at it either way) privates to retail grows.. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gq7UbdFXYAAx1e5?format=png&name=small
XTOD: Everyone knows about GLP-1s now, but what about SGLT2 inhibitors? They may be a miracle cure for kidney disease – but also for liver disease, dementia, respiratory diseases and even, very possibly, for old age.
XTOD: The Holy See is willing to help enemies meet, so they may look each other in the eye and so people may be given back the dignity they deserve: the dignity of peace. With heart in hand, I say to the leaders of nations: let us meet; let us dialogue; let us negotiate!
https://x.com/ProfJAParker/status/1922743635918852336
https://x.com/BoringBiz_/status/1922391432431653104
https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1922708130720342517
https://x.com/s8mb/status/1922669629958148098
https://x.com/Pontifex/status/1922656143312076879
It's not that there's nothing happening. It's that the economic news is relatively good. And you listen to liberal sources. So they are not going to be talking about it. Because bad news has more news coverage and because it's under Trump you do not have much coverage of it in your sources. I don't need to know read a list of your sources to know that I can read your content. I can then realize where you're getting it from. I am not saying that you necessarily watch CNN and MSNBC for your economic news. But I am saying that there has been such a skew to the liberal left socially and economically and the last 60 years that even the right leaning sources you are going to are not even right of center in absolute terms. The problem is the people you are listening to are educated by the liberal institutions. But if you were self-taught or your sources were self-taught you would actually have a better grip on what is going on around you economically. This is not an attack. This is an observation. I hope you are not offended I hope you are not angered or hurt. Although a broken clock is correct twice a day I wouldn't run to it to find out what time it is. And you seem to use sources that are a few steps behind or wrong often.
ReplyDeleteInteresting take. I would appreciate a deeper education in what is going on economically, so feel free to reply with the proper education. As for "liberal" while the blog might touch upon topics that appear in political discourse, most days it stays close to its stated purpose, core themes (uncertainty, risk, patience), exploration of diverse economic ideas, critiques of both government/Fed actions and corporate behavior, and explicit inclusion of free-market perspectives provide a strong basis to argue that it does not fit neatly into a simple "liberal" label and instead seeks to offer a more nuanced, critical, and pragmatic view focused on understanding the complex economic and financial landscape....oh and there is a lot of humor and satire on here.
DeleteBut sure, put the topic of The Fiscal Theory of The Price Level as part of the liberal education...and the takedowns of MMT as liberal education as well.
Then why did you think that the sky was falling when Trump put in tarrifs?
DeleteI suggest a re-read of all the April posts.
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