"I survived the Hawk Tuah meme coin crash of 2024". If you're interested in a T-shirt, feel free to post a comment.
Will Buffett and Munger's critiques of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies which they variously described as "rat poison squared", comparing them to "some venereal disease" and "trading turds" while lamenting that the whole industry is "disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization", prove valid? I guess time will tell, but I'm pretty confident Hawk Tuah's coin won't be the last collapse (fraud???) we'll see this cycle.
Friday's Payrolls headline was +227k, with October and September both revised higher. The unemployment rose to 4.2% largely driven by new entrants to the labor force. Average hourly earnings rose and remained robust at 4.5%. Debate still exists around the impact of immigration and the birth and death of businesses in the data. Nonetheless the data seemed solid. Away from jobs data, the UofM was very strong with a surge in the current conditions component along with some increasing in inflation expectations.
With labor data out of the way the focus will move to this week's inflation data as the Fed enters blackout before their meeting next week.
Away from economics, the Tik Tok ban was currently upheld creating some uncertainty for the future of ownership of the platform and operations in the U.S. by mid January. As of the time of this writing the shooter of the United Healthcare CEO remained at large with search shifting to Atlanta due to tips. In geopolitics, Syrian President Assad resigned and fled the country. Trump has urged the U.S. to stay out of Syrian affairs. You generally know the other major geopolitical and political topics, so no need to rehash.
On the week ahead the highlights are:
Mon: Inventories, RBA rate decision
Tue: Small business optimism and productivity
Wed: CPI, Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Thur: ECB Rate decision, PPI, jobless claims
Fri: Import Prices
XTOD: Bottom line: another unclear report w/ strength in one survey & weakness in the other. I would make wage growth the tie breaker and it has unambiguously been strong. Some may be catch up from poor performance earlier but also bolsters case for last mile / no landing scenario....Back to the big picture, employment and jobs remain well above pre-pandemic forecasts. This is mostly the inflow of immigrants.
XTOD: The almost 400k decline in household survey employment came from private sector. The 785k boost in government employment from September which we trace to election has not yet reversed. That is to come.
XTOD: Weekly hot takes:
1. Whoever was short mid cap SaaS got blown out
2. Risk is mispriced -> I was really close with Eric Sheridan when he was at UBS and no one knew him. We use to have a “hot tub scale”. How many people were in the hot tub? I can firmly say … this markets hot tub is completely full
3. We are no where near prior cycle highs in Bitcoin vs MAG7. Something to watch. Different this time?
4. AI continues to split into subsections. AI Datacenter. AI Energy. Now… AI Agenttech factor needs to be added to risk models
5. APP is now $150bn cap
6. ACHR is up +140% in 20 days
7. ARKK smoked Value
8. People ignored all FED talk this week
9. I got pitched degenerate meme coins in the gym by some anon (to be fair they didn’t know what I did) which makes even funnier
10. Levered ETFs are at historical high inflows and capital while puts and skew at 100 yr lows
XTOD: Former Milwaukee Bucks owner Marc Lasry says he is actively trying to buy college football and basketball teams. Lasry says certain colleges could sell a 51% stake in their teams at a $500M to $750M valuation and then use that money for NIL and facility upgrades. Crazy times.
XTOD: Bitcoin was also created out of thin air. Here's an old post (also created out of thin air): https://andolfatto.blogspot.com/2011/03/out-of-thin-air.html
https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1865371947682377847
https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1865068925689491565
https://x.com/JaredKubin/status/1865374025918083171
https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/1865184030259376526
https://x.com/dandolfa/status/1865471788450279572
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