If you don't like this blog, feel free to call me so the Chinese can have a record of your disapproval, or at least have all the metadata associated with your disapproval. I'm pretty confident that there is nothing more important to the Salt Typhoon hacking group. Oh, you didn't know about the hacking of 8 U.S. telecom providers? I wonder if any market related information has been acted on as a result of this hack?
More record highs hit on the bing card again today. Tech led by Salesforce won the day. Following data, Powell and Beige book, the 2Y ended at 4.13% and the 10Y at 4.19%.
Powell was the main event yesterday. His comment that the Fed can "afford to be a little more cautious as we try to find neutral" was one that made headlines and appeared a little less dovish than the comments from Waller early in the weak. He also said that "The economy is strong, and it's stronger than we thought it was going to be in September." Aside from his comments around the economy, his comments about Bitcoin as a competitor to gold, not the dollar made probably the most headlines on social media.
The lowlights were the apparent assassination of United Healthcare's CEO in Midtown Manhattan, just horrific, and the collapse of the French government. There is no resolution to whether or not S. Korea President will be impeached. Cuba barely has power. Syria is a mess. I think that covers most of the negative bases for the day.
In data, ADP was largely in line (depending on what estimates you looked at) at +146k. Services hiring and hiring by large firms led the way while manufacturing lagged overall despite what looked like a decent construction increase. The data also showed a 4.8% YoY increase in wages. Friday's jobs report will likely have more effects from people returning from strikes and hurricanes, but we'll see.
The ISM Services index declined by more than forecast with weaker than expected business activity, new orders and employment readings. Prices paid rose. The commentary indicated overall positive tone with some concerns around the impact of tariffs on the forward looking picture.
The Fed's Beige Book showed slow, but accelerating economic activity and expectations for continued growth in business activity in 2025. Tariff concerns were noted but overall the use of the word "slowness" declined materially in the report.
On the day ahead it's jobless claims as the highlight as markets position for Jobs Day on Friday.
XTOD: Cubans woke up to darkness as the Caribbean island's electrical grid collapsed, the latest in a string of nationwide blackouts https://reut.rs/3D14jYb
XTOD: Quick Syria Update:
- On Monday, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. General Pat Ryder announced that the U.S.-Russian military-to-military deconfliction hotline was used to prevent a future miscalculation. The tempo of both U.S. and Russian operations has increased significantly in the past week.
- The Russian base in the Tartus region of Syria comes under significant threat from advancing opposition forces. As of late yesterday, opposition forces, led by HTS, were just ~20 km from the Latakia Naval Base. Most recently, repeated explosions have been reported in the local region.
- It’s become increasingly clear that opposition forces are seeking to isolate the city of Hama in order to make the position of the SAA forces tasked with its defense untenable. A number of key heights and ground lines of communication (GLOC) on the outskirts of the city have been taken. Such successes will only serve to potentiate opposition efforts to isolate the city. Fighting has already been reported within the city limits.
XTOD: We now live in a World where the CEO of a Dow Jones component ( $UNH) is gunned down in Broad Daylight in NYC and the stock goes Up... Just another sign post along the way
XTOD: Saw mainstream news coverage about the killing of the CEO of United Healthcare on TikTok and I think political and industry leaders might want to read the comments and think hard about them
XTOD: “I have every possession I want. I have a lot of friends who have a lot more possessions. But in some cases, I feel the possession possesses them, rather than the other way around.” — Warren Buffett
XTOD: Don’t feel qualified? Nobody does. You can only be qualified to do that which you have already accomplished or trained for. Anything new is accomplished by unqualified people.
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1864431989111079128
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1864432703283642632
https://x.com/AlderLaneEggs/status/1864411213532139775
https://x.com/tobitac/status/1864340665976393908
https://x.com/InvestingCanons/status/1864172478320312414
https://x.com/JamesClear/status/1864354263054344634
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