Daily Economic Update: February 2, 2024

Jobs Day in 'merica!  Consensus is for +185K headline, but the whisper number seems higher. Weather is cited as factor that could detract from the headline number.  Average Hourly Earnings are expected to be ~4.1% annualized and will likely be heavily scrutinized.

Jobless claims rose slightly more than expected at 224K, Q4 Productivity beat expectations with unit labor cost coming below estimates at 0.5% vs. 1.3% est.

BoE was on pause and it sounds like they are going to be potentially even more cautious than the Fed as they revised higher growth estimates. 

The market liked META and AMZN earnings and the META dividend.  The 2Y is ~4.20 and the 10Y ~3.88% as the 2s10s un-inversion watch has hit a pause.....

AND for all the rate cut talks Atlanta Fed GDPnow is now at 4.2% for 1Q2024.

XTOD (Taleb): Explaining the debt/death spiral. Some of my comments were spreading on social media (they was a a discussion in Congress).  Debt servicing = 40% of the past deficit. Next year we will pay interest on that. Debt servicing will reach 70% ,80%, displacing other expenditures.  On top of the fragility, there is an intergenerational transfer of liability, highly immoral (h/t Spitznagel). 

Note/Errata: total deficit north of 30 Trillion is the accumulated deficit. (I mistakenly used the same word to describe current and accumulated).

XTOD (Prof. Steve Keen): Do the accounting Taleb. The deficit creates the funds used to buy government bonds. There's no borrowing involved so long as you're financing bonds in your own currency.  You visibly don't get that government bonds aren't competing for "loanable funds", but creating money on the bank liability side, and funds on the asset side that enable banks & primary dealers to buy the bonds. You're falling for an obsolete model of banking.

XTOD (Taleb):  What you showed does not deny the presence of a debt spiral and there is no such thing as "obsolete" banking.  So you are saying that a debt spiral is good?  If what tou are saying is invariant to scaling then let's abolish taxation and just spend like crazy while printing bonds.

XTOD (some random reply): MMT told me everything will be fine, though. Sure, history disagrees with them, but it's a very convenient theory to justify living for today, tomorrow be damned.

XTOD (unrelated to the Taleb thread):  Essentially, if the US has moved to a secular growth regime higher than pre-pandemic then the path to 0.5% real-FF will end up being expansionary....So while we are debating whether or not 3 or 4 or 7 cuts this year makes sense, we are in effect implicitly debating what neutral is, due to a general assumption there isn't an upside risk to inflation.  This is why i jokingly say the Fed either needs to hike or a recession has to happen soon....This is why I think we continue to see the market trade in a violent range this year, particularly in the first half as we consume incoming data and determine the clearing price not just for bonds, or stocks or whatever you trade, but for the economy itself.

XTOD: A Few Thoughts on Spending Money https://collabfund.com/blog/a-few-thoughts-on-spending-money/

Daily Economic Update: February 1, 2024

Yesterday's FOMC left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%.  The statement included many changes including that the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target rate until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent.  Powell continued to assert the need to get inflation back to 2% and noted that the policy rate is likely at its peak.  The Fed will be data dependent.  They want to see continued good inflation prints, the 6 months of "good" inflation prints doesn't seem to be enough to give the FOMC full confidence to declare victory yet. Powell described themselves as being in a "risk management mode".  Powell seemed to indicate that a March rate cut is out of the question, but we'll see.  And deep fakes of Powell pressers are a thing (and pretty funny depending on your taste)

Powell still had an easier day than Zuckerberg.

ECI and ADP data both were lower than expected with ECI below 4% (annualized), theoretically easing some risk of wage price spirals.  In other news, New York Community Bancorp shares fell greater than 30% after cutting their dividend following posting a loss and building up reserves (especially for office loans) as concerns about regional banks regained some attention.  

Yields fell with the 10Y below 4% and stocks fell as well.

On the day ahead it's BOE Rate Decision, jobless claims, nonfarm productivity and ISM mfg.

XTOD: Today wasn't about QRA it was Fed pushing back on easing, bad reaction to decent earnings and guidance, and NYCB.  But the headwind from QRA stepped up as 519BN Net new money from coupon sales will be absorbed and -317BN of Bills will result in RRP stabilizing and delay QT Taper

XTOD: Not one question for Powell on NYCB or the BTFP

XTOD: which acronym will replace BTFP and how many trillions will it inject?

XTOD: I get that no one should  mechanically follow Taylor rules. But it's interesting that all three versions tracked here by the Atlanta Fed say you're too tight.

FOMC Recap: What did the man in the orange hat say today?

 

What did the man in the orange hat say today?  

Is the correct answer, “I don’t know, and I don’t care”?

On a long enough horizon, how many times the Fed cuts rates in 2024 is just a bump on the long, unmapped road that investors need to navigate, a road that is filled with plenty of uncertainty.  A road where the only certainty is that there will be some unexpected twists and turns along the way.  Those that can navigate the unforeseen and the short-term setbacks on this journey are likely to reach their destination, those that attempt shortcuts and are reckless may not.  We all know that the game of predicting the future is a tough one, filled with many losers, so speeding down the road in search of returns based on prediction alone may not always end well.  We have plenty of recent experience to know that the biggest shocks to the economic system tend to come without warning.

Speaking of uncertainties, 2024 is an election year.  Appointed to lead the Fed in 1979, Paul Volcker was no stranger to election years.  In his memoir, Keeping At It, Volcker recounts the story of a meeting in the summer of 1984, an election year, where he was summoned to the White House to meet with President Reagan.  The message from Reagan’s Chief of Staff, Jim Baker, was “The president is ordering you not to raise interest rates before the election.”  Volcker laments that he wasn’t planning on tightening policy at the time and the dilemma he faced in deciding whether to report the incident (he didn’t), stating, “How could I explain that I was ordered not to do something that at the time I had no intention of doing.”  Volcker describes the whole incident as a “striking reminder about the pressure that politics can exert on the Fed as elections approach”.

The Powell Fed may find themselves in a similarly tricky political position.  The Fed may believe that cutting rates is the correct policy but potentially worry that cutting rates later this year may look to be politically motivated, or vice versa.  In navigating the politics of an election year, Powell would be wise to heed some advice from Volcker’s memoir, specifically the importance of credibility in restoring price stability and guarding against the “real danger [that] comes from encouraging or inadvertently tolerating rising inflation and its close cousin of extreme speculation and risk taking…”

So much attention is focused on predicting what the Fed will do next, but what really matters for navigating the long road to investment returns is the institutional credibility of the Fed, ultimately earned not by words, but by actions.  Actions that ultimately create a stable environment for businesses to do their job of solving the world’s most difficult problems.  Actions that at times mean changing interest rates and at other times finding creative solutions to keep the banking system from imploding.

In maintaining the independence and power of the Fed that ultimately backs its institutional credibility, which is necessary to foster a trusting and stable business environment, my advice to Powell is to revisit Robert Greene’s book The 48 Laws of Power with specific consideration to the following of Greene’s laws:

              Law 4: Always Say Less Than Necessary: When you speak, always say as little as possible. The more you speak, the more likely you are to say something foolish.

              Law 5: So Much Depends on Reputation – Guard It With your Life: Reputation is the cornerstone of power. You can influence more people and gain more opportunities with a solid reputation. Therefore, it is essential to protect it fiercely.

              Law 9: Win through your Actions, Never through Argument:  Winning an argument gives you momentary advantage but winning through actions gives you lasting power. Actions demonstrate competence and create value, whereas words, often in arguments, lead to negative emotions and resentment.

               Law 20: Do Not Commit to Anyone: It is the fool who always rushes to take sides. Do not commit to any side or cause but yourself.  By maintaining your independence, you become the master of others.

Following these laws, over the long run, the Fed can maintain its reputation for fostering sound money and financial stability. For all the criticism, controversy, mistakes, and triumphs attributed to the Federal Reserve, as an institutional system, it has served the country well.  In Volcker’s words “…it remains a precious asset for the country in troubled times.”

Daily Economic Update: January 31, 2024

FOMC Day is here. Check back after Powell's presser for a recap.  Yesterday's JOLTS showed an increase in openings, but subdued quits is seen as a sign of some loosening in the job market.  Consumer confidence remained solid and while stocks were relatively flat, after hour earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft were viewed as weaker than expected.  Yields fell a few bps with the 2Y at 4.32% and the 10Y at 4.02%.  Overseas China's economy and the two wars are still a mess.

Ahead of the Fed we get ADP Employment, Employment Cost Index, and the Treasury Refunding Announcement. 

XTOD: The economy is so hot companies have to make layoff announcements every day.

XTOD: Never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware

XTOD: New money wants a Lambo, old money wants a tax shelter.

XTOD: Billionaire Barry Sternlicht sees more than $1 trillion of losses for office real estate, calling the properties “one asset class that never recovered” from the pandemic.  Once a $3 trillion asset class, offices now are “probably worth $1.8 trillion,” said Sternlicht, chief executive officer of Starwood Capital Group. “There’s $1.2 trillion of losses spread somewhere, and nobody knows exactly where it all is.”  “We’re in the business of getting loans,” he said. The banks “don’t show up, they’re not even playing. So the alternatives are the debt funds, which are having a field day.”

XTOD: Just Months After "Massive Labor Deal," UPS Announces Massive Layoffs

XTOD: Quits and hires rate are now a notable step below 2019 levels.  Quits does better predicting labor market conditions and there's an increasing trend in job openings across the 21C. So, at this critical moment, worth weighing quits more when we are watching labor market. /1

XTOD: By now, everyone knows Taylor Swift is a government psyop and this is exactly why Corporate Media is having a meltdown about it:

-4 years ago, the Pentagon Psychological Operations Unit pitched NATO about turning Taylor Swift into a “social influence” asset

-In 2019, George Soros bought her entire music catalog

-In 2020, she came out as a raging liberal Joe Biden supporter, after previously being politically neutral

-In 2023, her Eras Tour raked in higher revenue than the GDP of 50 countries

-In 2023, she helped register over 35k new voters with a single Instagram post

-And now she’s dating a Pfizer & Bud Light agent in the NFL, the most watched live sport in America

-Even the NYT wrote a story on how Biden is courting her for an endorsement and how he wants to appear on stage with her

You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to put it all together, you just have to be paying attention

XTOD: This guy’s hilarious

XTOD: Did you know syphilis can kill? As US cases soar, here's everything you need to know, from symptoms to treatment

Daily Economic Update: January 30, 2024

S&P (new ATH) and Nasdaq continued to rise as we await tech earnings and the deluge of data and central bank speak yet to come.  The 2Y is 4.32% and the 10Y is 4.08% with yields falling slightly following the Treasury's announcement that they expect to borrow less than market expected, we'll know more about the mix of bills and notes come Wednesday. 

Yesterday, we finally learned that China's Evergrande is indeed bankrupt, something I think everyone has known for like at least 2+ years.  Maybe Elizabeth Warren can fix China's property sector?  It's simple, the solution to every problem is to cut rates. If housing market sucks and prices are falling, cut rates, if the housing market has rising prices, cut rates.  There is literally nothing rate cuts can't cure.

In fairness to Senator Warren and the 3 other Senators who sent the letter to Jay Powell, they make some valid points.  Indeed, higher borrowing cost do make it more expensive to buy a home and higher interest cost can make it more expensive to bring on new housing supply online, all good points. However, in my opinion, they missed an opportunity to really hit the Fed on all the MBS they bought through QE and how that possibly led to existing homeowners refinancing at ridiculously low rates which likely discourage them from putting their home on the market.  There are likely a myriad of other factors creating supply and demand mismatches including zoning policies, WFH policies (less need to move for a job), increased boomer wealth (less need to sell, downsize, as they already have 2nd homes), as well as some of the other policy distortions that have come out of the pandemic......who knows.

Call me crazy, but it's weird that it seems like home prices were rising the fastest when rates were near zero and they've started to level off now that the Fed has hiked rates...

On the day ahead it's JOLTS as the highlight.

XTOD: Market summary:  Janet Yellen launched another drone attack on bears.

XTOD: Buffett held up stacks of paper and said, “Read 500 pages like this every day. That’s how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest.  All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it.  - The Joys of Compounding

XTOD: 1/ What is a compounder?  "High quality, franchise businesses, ideally with recurring revenues, dominant & durable intangible assets, pricing power and low capital intensity. We focus on franchise quality, durability, financial strength, industry position, & management quality"..... Key characteristics:

• High ROIC • High margins • Recurring revenues • Low capital intensity• Innovation-driven • Pricing power • No excess debt • Quality management • Low cyclicality • Resilient in downturns • High barriers to entry • Organic growth potential...Avoid traps like:  • Fading companies • Highly acquisitive companies - where mgmt are not disciplined • Poor or greedy mgmt • Overdependence on single product • Cuts to R&D, marketing, development • Mgmt with short-term focus   https://t.co/I8y4BGcAA4

XTOD: American men are stuck in what’s been dubbed a friendship recession, with 20% of single men now saying they don’t have any close friends, an all time high, per PBS.

XTOD: Working on becoming a combination of Erlich from Silicon Valley, Walter from The Big Lebowski, and Phil Connors from Groundhog Day

Daily Economic Update: January 29, 2024 (finfluencers, civilization and an FOMC preview?)

FOMC week is upon us, with the Fed rate decision on Wednesday.  A central question will be how Powell reacts to the number of rate cuts currently priced in for 2024 and perhaps more specifically how he addresses the possibility of a March rate cut.  Friday's PCE report, while showing a higher MoM index reading than the month prior, painted a picture of strong consumer spending with continued disinflation. 

On the week ahead: Tuesday: JOLTS, Wed: ADP, ECI and FOMC, Thur: Jobless claims, ISM mfg, Friday: Jobs Day in 'merica

As we wait on the Fed, so much of what the Fed seems to do today is verbal suasion, they try to influence with words and ultimately if they follow through they are said to be "credible" (this is important - see below). 

While what Powell and the Fed says might matter, recent CFA research reminds me that what Powell says might be less important than what "finfluencers" on social media say about what what Powell says.  Per the research report:

Social media influencers are becoming a key vehicle to promote products and services, including in the financial services sector. This development has given rise to the neologism “finfluencer” (financial influencer).  Finfluencers represent a new intermediary between

financial institutions and consumers. They provide general investment information, promote investment products, offer guidance, and, in some instances, make investment recommendations. It is often unclear whether finfluencers are authorised to conduct regulated activities; however, they have become an important source for young investors—particularly those aged 18–25, who are part of Generation Z—to access investment information.

While social media is definitely a relatively new phenomenon, the challenges of poor information, disinformation, etc. is anything but new.  In fact you could argue it is an inevitability of becoming "civilized", at least economist and philosopher John Stuart Mill considered this inevitability to be the case all the way back in 1836 in his essay titled "Civilization".   Mill defined "civilized society" by contrast to barbaric or rude society; 

"We accordingly call a people civilized, where the arrangements of society, for protecting the persons and property of its members, are sufficiently perfect to maintain peace among them; i.e. to induce the bulk of the community to rely for their security mainly upon social arrangements, and renounce for the most part, and in ordinary circumstances, the vindication of their interests (whether in the way of aggression or of defence) by their individual strength or courage."

Mill argues that the attainment or advancement to a civilized state requires a diffusion of property and knowledge, combined with the power of cooperation.  However, Mill recognized some consequences that come from obtaining and growing civilized society, including that "the importance of the individual, as compared to the masses, sink into greater and greater insignificance."  [Side bar: Professor and author Dr. Michael Muthukrishna in discussing his book, A Theory of Everyone, posits that one of the pivotal moments towards what he calls "the securitization of trust" necessary in fostering the diffusion of property and knowledge was the Catholic Church banning cousin marriage.  He sees this as largely ending kinship based tribalism, which further leads to humans learning to cooperate and build trust beyond the familial structure.]

What does any of this have to do with "finfluencers" and the Fed?  Well, Mill understood that "When the masses become powerful, an individual, or a small band of individuals, can accomplish nothing considerable except by influencing the masses; and to do this becomes daily more difficult, from the constantly increasing number of those who are vying with one another to attract the public attention."  Consequences of which included in Mill's words:

• The individual becomes so lost in the crowd, that though he depends more and more upon opinion, he is apt to depend less and less upon well-grounded opinion; upon the opinion of those who know him.
• There has been much complaint of late years, of the growth, both- in the world of trade and in that of intellect, of quackery, and especially of puffing: but nobody seems to have remarked, that these are the inevitable fruits of immense competition; of a state of society where any voice, not pitched in an exaggerated key, is lost in the hubbub. Success, in so crowded a field, depends not upon what a person is, but upon what he seems: mere marketable qualities become the object instead of substantial ones, and a man's labour and capital are expended less in doing anything, than in persuading other people that he has done it
• It is our own age which has seen the honest dealer driven to quackery, by hard necessity, and the certainty of being undersold by the dishonest. For the first time, arts for attracting public attention form a necessary part of the qualifications even of the deserving: and skill in these goes farther than any other quality towards ensuring success
•  It corrupts the very fountain of the improvement of public opinion itself; it corrupts public teaching; it weakens the influence of the more cultivated few over the many
• The world reads too much and too quickly to read well
• when almost every person who can spell, can and will write, what is to be done? It is difficult to know what to read, except by reading everything; and so much of the world's business is now transacted through the press, that it is necessary to know what is printed, if we desire to know what is going on. Opinion weighs with so vast a weight in the balance of events, that ideas of no value in themselves are of importance from the mere circumstance that they are ideas, and have a bonâ fide existence as such anywhere out of Bedlam

While Mill expressed concerns over civilization causing a loss of individual energy (loss of courage, work ethic, patience, etc.) and a weakening of the influence of superior minds, he believed that the answer wasn't to limit diffusion of knowledge, but to establish counter-tendencies by further perfecting means of cooperation and reforming education and politics.  

The problems of Mill's 1836, seem quite similar to some of the problems of our current day and some of the reforms he discusses seem eerily similar to some debates around higher education today.

So what's the lesson?  Perhaps it is that when listening to Powell this week, take a longer view.  The Fed is part of a fabric of institutions that have been developed over time to help "securitize trust" and foster societal cooperation.  If you believe that societal cooperation solves problems and makes a better world, then what the Fed does with 25 or 100 basis points here or there over the next month or year is likely far less relevant than whether you believe that in the long-run, institutions like the Fed, remain somewhat credible in fostering a stable environment for businesses to solve problems.  If you think that over time our ability to remain civilized holds, then it's a case for optimism, a topic I mentioned here.  

XTOD: Doing less meaningless work, so that you can focus on things of greater personal importance, is NOT laziness. This is hard for most to accept, because our culture tends to reward personal sacrifice instead of personal productivity.  Let’s define “laziness” anew—to endure a non-ideal existence, to let circumstance or others decide life for you, or to amass a fortune while passing through life like a spectator from an office window. The size of your bank account doesn’t change this, nor does the number of hours you log in handling unimportant e-mail or minutiae.   Focus on being productive instead of busy.

XTOD: the spouses of the very rich are the dark matter of american politics

XTOD: Taylor Swift performs in Japan the night before the Super Bowl. It will end around 10pm Tokyo time (5 am Las Vegas time). The flight from Tokyo to Vegas takes 12 hours, meaning Swift can arrive at 5pm local on the day before the Super Bowl, 25 hours, 35 mins before kickoff.

Daily Economic Update: January 26, 2024

In a big day of data, the U.S. GDP 4Q advance reading was well above consensus coming in at 3.3% vs. 2.0% est. while the GDP Price Index data was below estimates, showing signs of cooling inflation.  The GDP data of the last two quarters coupled with further signs of disinflation is continued fuel for the soft landing narrative.   Jobless claims were above 200K for what feels like the first time in a while. Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales were also solid.  The ECB was on hold as expected with LaGarde trying to push back on rate cuts, while hitting on the fact that they are waiting to see wage growth stabilize or slow, but the continued weakness in soft data such as PMI's has markets continuing to price in fairly aggressive cuts.   Overall the S&P was up, EUR:USD was weaker as markets focus on U.S. growth and U.S. bonds closed lower and the 7Y auction was better than the ugly 5Y auction from Wednesday.   2Y ~4.30% and 10% ~4.12%

If you missed it the other night, the Fed ended the BTFP arb as they wind down the BTFP facility in March as well.  If you were unfamiliar with the arb, banks could borrow from the BTFP and deposit those funds with the Fed and earn IORB, in other words you could borrow from the Fed and earn a positive spread on those funds from the Fed.  

In geopolitics, headlines indicate that Putin might be open to talks on Ukraine.  On the day ahead it's PCE as the main course.

XTOD: Q4 GDP:  3.3% vs 2.0% exp.   The best GDP report a half a trillion dollar deficit in one quarter can buy!

XTOD: The airport is nowhere in sight. H4L baby.

XTOD: the 'strengths of monetary policy transmission' is code for 'who knows?'.

XTOD: I dread disagreeing w/ Claudia, but the fact that there has been a soft landing does not itself mean the inflation was transitory.  A soft landing was possible, w/ the help of Fed rate hikes, even if it was partly due to excess AD growth. Indeed, the belief that there can’t be a soft-landing from a situation of unwanted demand-driven (hence, non self-reversing) inflation itself reflects Philips-Curve thinking. 

(I’m going to go put my suit of armor on now.)

XTOD: I've put together a list of 5 key areas to watch this year. Yes, volatility can surprise businesses and financial markets any year. What makes 2024 different is the exponential impact volatility could have in the economy. I hope you'll give them a read. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/five-flashpoints-2024-nomi-prins-a9gce/

XTOD: Let's not forget: The inflation was premeditated & intentionally created by the central planners, as they implemented the Blackrock plan to cause inflation via my QE2 proposal that I designed for a deflationary shrinking economy -when supply was restricted https://t.co/PCzsDTf2Mv

XTOD: The best way to gauge the quality of someone’s ideas isn’t to listen to them talking. It’s to read their writing.  Compelling speakers can mask weak logic with strong charisma. Putting key points on a page exposes flawed reasoning.  Compelling writing requires clear thinking.

XTOD: Surprising new data on religious affiliation and the rise of None:  

None 28%

Evangelical Protestants 24%.

Catholics 23% 

In 2007, "None" made up just 16% of Americans

Daily Economic Update: January 25, 2024

New all-time highs on the S&P as tech/nasdaq stocks lead the way.  The S&P PMI's exceeded expectations and showed service sector expansion.  IBM beat and Tesla missed and DuPont shares were ugly. Yields were higher after a 5Y Note auction that tailed 2bps.  The 2Y is ~4.38% and the 10Y is ~4.17%

I recently wrote about the "cruel irony of investing" and Ben Graham's ideas around the difference in investing on the basis of projection vs. protection here, and that might sound like a call to avoid optimism...it's not.  I recently enjoyed a post by Joachim Klement titled When Optimism Becomes a Dirty Word .  In the article Klement fleshes out an argument that pessimism and doom and gloom hold back societies by decreasing entrepreneurship and productivity over time, he might be right.

Simon Sinek is definitely an optimist.  He defines optimism as "the undying belief that the future is bright"  while also providing that it is not blind positivity or ignoring difficult circumstances.

I don't find optimism incongruent with concepts like "margin of safety".  In fact I think it's quite congruent with the wisdom of Graham and his protege Warren Buffett.  In Buffett's words, "In order to succeed, you must first survive."  For anyone who is familiar with the basics of compounding, you have a growth rate on the bottom and an exponent. While you can get really large outcome by having a high growth rate, for those who study the best compounders they find that it's the exponent that matters the most.  That exponent is time and you can't enjoy compounding if you or your portfolio aren't around.

Author Morgan Housel likes to say "save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist"  meaning you can only be an optimist in the long run if you can survive all the short-run setbacks.  Housel has also recently written about Optimism it's worth a read.  In a talk Housel gave when discussing optimism and his first book, The Psychology of Money, Housel provided:

 Real optimists don’t believe that everything will be great. That’s complacency. Optimism is a belief that the odds of a good outcome are in your favor over time, even when there will be setbacks along the way. 

,,,,But the most powerful and important book should be called “Shut Up And Wait.” It’s just one page with a long-term chart of economic growth.  Physicist Albert Bartlett put it: “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”

One thing that can risk interrupting compounding unnecessarily and not allowing you to achieve the long-term optimism is excessive leverage.  "It pushes routine risks into something capable of producing ruin."   We've talked about leverage recently...go back to January 10th post on Howard Mark's "Easy Money" memo. 

On the day ahead it's the Q4 GDP Advance, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, 7Y Note auction. ECB expected to hold, we’ll see how hard they push back against rate cuts priced in.

XTOD: I'm finding the idea that the US experienced a series of small, sector-specific recessions in 2022-2023 more and more compelling. If so, that would lower the odds of the economy generally losing momentum now.

XTOD:  "Profit: While we continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing and operations, over time, we expect our hardware-related profits to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI, software and fleet-based profits." - TSLA

XTOD: Sobering chart on commercial real estate and the Fed's tightening cycle. This  time is different! https://imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/17/us-commercial-real-estate-remains-a-risk-despite-investor-hopes-for-soft-landing

XTOD: Berkshire Hathaway spikes to record highs on news of the upcoming release of ChatBRK which will be “trained” on Buffett and Munger letters and interviews. Berkshire will also change the URL of its website to brk dot ai and will unveil a new nft logo.