FOMC Day is here. Check back after Powell's presser for a recap. Yesterday's JOLTS showed an increase in openings, but subdued quits is seen as a sign of some loosening in the job market. Consumer confidence remained solid and while stocks were relatively flat, after hour earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft were viewed as weaker than expected. Yields fell a few bps with the 2Y at 4.32% and the 10Y at 4.02%. Overseas China's economy and the two wars are still a mess.
Ahead of the Fed we get ADP Employment, Employment Cost Index, and the Treasury Refunding Announcement.
XTOD: The economy is so hot companies have to make layoff announcements every day.
XTOD: Never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware
XTOD: New money wants a Lambo, old money wants a tax shelter.
XTOD: Billionaire Barry Sternlicht sees more than $1 trillion of losses for office real estate, calling the properties “one asset class that never recovered” from the pandemic. Once a $3 trillion asset class, offices now are “probably worth $1.8 trillion,” said Sternlicht, chief executive officer of Starwood Capital Group. “There’s $1.2 trillion of losses spread somewhere, and nobody knows exactly where it all is.” “We’re in the business of getting loans,” he said. The banks “don’t show up, they’re not even playing. So the alternatives are the debt funds, which are having a field day.”
XTOD: Just Months After "Massive Labor Deal," UPS Announces Massive Layoffs
XTOD: Quits and hires rate are now a notable step below 2019 levels. Quits does better predicting labor market conditions and there's an increasing trend in job openings across the 21C. So, at this critical moment, worth weighing quits more when we are watching labor market. /1
XTOD: By now, everyone knows Taylor Swift is a government psyop and this is exactly why Corporate Media is having a meltdown about it:
-4 years ago, the Pentagon Psychological Operations Unit pitched NATO about turning Taylor Swift into a “social influence” asset
-In 2019, George Soros bought her entire music catalog
-In 2020, she came out as a raging liberal Joe Biden supporter, after previously being politically neutral
-In 2023, her Eras Tour raked in higher revenue than the GDP of 50 countries
-In 2023, she helped register over 35k new voters with a single Instagram post
-And now she’s dating a Pfizer & Bud Light agent in the NFL, the most watched live sport in America
-Even the NYT wrote a story on how Biden is courting her for an endorsement and how he wants to appear on stage with her
You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to put it all together, you just have to be paying attention
XTOD: This guy’s hilarious
XTOD: Did you know syphilis can kill? As US cases soar, here's everything you need to know, from symptoms to treatment
https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1752428035809202625?s=20
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1752455348106166598?s=20
https://x.com/morganhousel/status/1752411694855577898?s=20
https://x.com/danjmcnamara/status/1752404746680594693?s=20
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1752351998597357886?s=20
https://x.com/mtkonczal/status/1752349448653476004?s=20
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1752492009682505752?s=20
https://x.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1752510522220589190?s=20
https://x.com/business/status/1752510349524213880?s=20
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