Saturday, July 29, 2023

Daily Economic Update: July 31, 2023

Month end is here. 2Y is at 4.88% (MTD down 2bps, YTD up 45bps) and 10Y up a bp to 3.96% (MTD up 12bps, YTD up 9bps). China continues to talk about stimulus and the BoJ did an unscheduled bond purchase to keep rates from rising too fast, USD-JPY weakens out to 142.19. The under the radar story has been the rise in commodities and in particular oil over the last month and whether/how that will impact inflation. On the week ahead we'll get JOLTS and ISM manufacturing on Tuesday and it's Job's day in 'merica on Friday. In between there will be plenty of Fedspeak.

Today: Chicago PMI, SLOOS, fedspeak (already had Kashkari over the weekend talking data dependent)
Tue: JOLTS, construction spending, ISM Mfg
Wed: ADP employment
Thur: Jobless claims, nonfarm productivity, durable goods, ISM services
Friday: Jobs day

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