Daily Economic Update: May 24, 2024

Yesterday was a tough day for equities despite the previous evenings NVIDIA earnings.  The stronger than expected flash PMI's seemed to be part of the culprit as the hotter than expected reading likely pared with yesterday's "hawkish" FOMC Minutes led to higher yields.  The 10Y creeps back towards 4.50% off a local low of ~4.35% and the 2Y creeps back towards 5% off a local low of ~4.80%.

As for PMI's both manufacturing and services beat expectations and hitting fastest in 2 years, with services leading.  The concern for bond yields was that the input price readings rose sharply in May, "the rate of inflation accelerating to register the second-largest monthly increase seen over the past eight months" and in commentary provided by S&P: " What’s interesting is that the main inflationary impetus is now coming from manufacturing rather than services, meaning rates of inflation for costs and selling prices are now somewhat elevated by pre-pandemic standards in both sectors to suggest that the final mile down to the Fed’s 2% target still seems elusive.”

On the day ahead it's durable goods orders, UofM sentiment and Fed speak.  Ok, you can go back to AI, tariffs, elections, data-center power usage, deficits, MMT, the Yen, the Yuan, wars, and whatever else is on your mind.

XTOD: First loss on an AAA-rated slice of a CMBS deal since 2008 right here - backed by 1740 Broadway in NYC.  https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/cmbs-buyers-suffer-first-loss-on-aaa-debt-since-financial-crisis by @ArroyoNieto  &  @natalexisw

XTOD: I’m always amazed that mainstream ratings agencies are able to hand out AAA ratings to single-asset loan CMBS (given that diversification is the supposed to be the bedrock of securitisation)

XTOD: We did it everyone, magnificent 1!

XTOD (See DARK MATTER): "Economics profession, they've been - they've been confident in various formulas, but economics is not physics. The same formula that works in one decade doesn't work in the next. Economics is a difficult subject."  Charlie Munger

XTOD: US to China: We raise tariffs on you. China to US: we lower yuan.

XTOD: From the DOJ complaint: “Ticketmaster Tax” "Whatever the name of the fee and however the fees are packaged and collected, they are essentially a “Ticketmaster Tax” that ultimately raise the price fans pay."

XTOD: "If you are not enthusiastic about your job, one-third of your life goes to waste." —Ingvar Kamprad (founder of IKEA)

Daily Economic Update: May 23, 2024

Stocks fell (in the normal trading, but NVIDIA reported after hours), yields rose as FOMC Minutes (meeting ended May 1, 2024), skewed hawkish, see bullets below, but the TLDR is perhaps best summarized by these two statements: (1) "many participants commented on their uncertainty about the degree of restrictiveness. These participants saw this uncertainty as coming from the possibility that high interest rates may be having smaller effects than in the past, that longer-run equilibrium interest rates may be higher than previously thought, or that the level of potential output may be lower than estimated and (2) Various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.

And did anyone else think that the fact that the Staff expects inflation to fall back to 2% by 2026 to be a bit of a long timeline?

NVIDIA beat across the board and announced a 10 for 1 stock split effective June 7th.  Snowflake earnings appeared to be really good too.  AI continues to appear to be an unstoppable force or something. 

Across the pond PM Sunak is calling for elections July 4th.  

Add Bird Flu to 'risk to your outlook'.

On the day ahead it's jobless claims and flash PMI's.

FOMC Minutes Recap - probably worth skipping to XTOD's

• Financial Markets and OMO:
• data pointed to inflation being more persistent than previously expected 
• the rise in longer term yields appeared to be due to higher real rates and higher risk premium
• short-term inflation expectations rose, but longer-term inflation expectations were well anchored
• reserves remained abundant
• Staff Review of Economic Situation
• good growth, slowing inflation and better balance in labor markets
• Staff Review of Financial Situation
• recapped market data, mentioned geopolitical situations
• credit remained available despite some tightening of conditions but noted that credit standards continued to tighten for CRE
• the Staff characterized the vulnerabilities of the financial system due to high asset prices as 'elevated'
• Staff Economic Outlook
• The economy was expected to maintain its high rate of resource utilization over the next few years, with projected output growth roughly similar to the staff's estimate of potential growth. The unemployment rate was expected to edge down slightly over 2024 as labor market functioning improved further, and to remain roughly steady thereafter.
• PCE inflation was expected to be close to 2% by 2026
• The Staff cited upside risk to inflation and downside risk to growth
• Participants Views 
• some debate over the impact of seasonal patterns and the impact of volatile categories had outsized impact on inflation readings vs. the view that inflation increases had been broad based
• attuned to inflation risks and still expect that inflation would return to 2% over the medium term, taking longer than previously thought
• some discussion of new leases at lower rents ultimately passing through to lower inflation
• despite participants noting some positive factors that could lower inflation, 'Several participants commented that growth of aggregate demand would likely have to slow from its strong pace in recent quarters for inflation to move sustainably toward the Committee's goal'
• Discussion of the impact of immigration on wages and growth
• Discussion/disagreement on productivity, with some believing recent productivity growth will not persist, while others believing it will be sustained in light of things like AI
• Noted the dichotomy of how lower income households were being hit hard by higher rates while wealthy households appeared to be benefiting from easy financial conditions
• Overall attuned to how higher rates could impact financial stability, but believed that other tools should be used to combat financial stability risky without impact policy rates
• many participants commented on their uncertainty about the degree of restrictiveness. These participants saw this uncertainty as coming from the possibility that high interest rates may be having smaller effects than in the past, that longer-run equilibrium interest rates may be higher than previously thought, or that the level of potential output may be lower than estimated.
• Various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate. Committee Policy Actions

XTOD: The minutes not only made mention of "various" participants willing to consider hikes, they also removed the sentence below about rates being at their peak.

XTOD: Great work Mike Wilson

XTOD: Imagine believing you're running a restrictive monetary with stock markets liquidity goosed up to 188% market cap to GDP.

XTOD: "Commodities protect against structurally higher inflation and diversify better than bonds. A portfolio with 40% exposure to commodities outperformed a traditional 60/40 mix with less downside risk."  - BofA

XTOD: Question: What if I don’t want to wait for the monthly CPI release to see what inflation’s up to? Answer: Look at the price changes specifically for sugar and sweets, which are closely correlated with overall CPI https://ow.ly/l43H50RPoyv

XTOD: Investing in yourself is the key to achieving financial freedom.  Whether it's learning new skills, starting a side hustle, or taking care of your physical and mental health, investing in yourself has the highest ROI.

Daily Economic Update: May 22, 2024

S&P 500 hits a new record.  Yields were down slightly, but overall it was another quiet day.  Gov. Waller says that in the absence in higher unemployment, he needs to see several more good inflation prints before cutting rates.  He did seem to downplay the need to raise rates further and the easing of financial conditions.  Waller joins a chorus of Fedspeak that all seem to say they need to see more data before being willing to cut rates will also holding a view that policy is restrictive and just needs more time.  We’ll see what FOMC Minutes, though now stale, have to provide that might be of any interest.

Away from Fedspeak is always and everywhere AI.  The latest buzz in AI news seems to be the threatened lawsuit by Scarlett Johansson against OpenAI where she asserts that after she turned down providing OpenAI permission to use her voice they essentially trained an AI personal assistant to sound just like her.

You'll get to hear plenty about AI today with Nvidia earnings on the come today.

And away from AI you have Biden planning to release another million barrels from the SPR to help ease gas prices ahead of the 4th of July.  Some might argue this doesn't quite get at the heart of the high price problem, but others could argue that the administration has been a pretty good oil and gas trading firm.

On the day ahead we get FOMC Minutes and new home sales along with Nvidia earnings.

XTOD: Some more fallout from the Freddie multifamily probe: The agency has placed valuation & appraisal firm BBG Real Estate under review, and says it will not accept any deals where BBG's Jon DiPietra is involved. See screenshots attached...In November, Freddie rocked the MF world when news broke that had placed Ralph Herzka's Meridian under investigation over an allegedly dodgy loan deal. There's been a lot of turmoil since, w sister agency Fannie blackballing title firms (riverside,Madison)

XTOD: This Craigslist ad for a 1999 Toyota Corolla is a masterclass in copywriting.  https://x.com/amandanat/status/1792943756951584929

XTOD: The Fed survey of economic well-being is out; some changes at the margin, but the basic story remains that Americans say they're doing mostly OK, their local economy isn't too bad, but the national economy is terrible 1

XTOD: Bill Miller on the value of simplicity:  “For every company, there are a few key investment variables. The rest of the stuff is noise.”   “Are things getting better or worse? If they’re getting better, then I want to understand what’s going on.”

XTOD: It makes relatively little difference whether the Fed targets 2%, or 3%, or 0%, inflation. The bigger difference is that between any inflation target and an aggregate spending (e.g., NGDP) target, which lets the inflation rate vary with aggregate supply innovations...Some of the Fed's biggest errors have stemmed from its failure to stabilize spending when supply innovations made doing so inconsistent with inflation targeting. It would be a shame if it missed yet another opportunity to take the stable spending alternative seriously.

Daily Economic Update: May 21, 2024

Is Morgan Stanely's Mike Wilson switching from market bear to bull a sign of the top or should we just give the guy some credit for being able to change views?  After all, "“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?” ― John Maynard Keynes

What do people do when there is no inflation, employment or growth data to obsess over?  I guess they listen to Dimon express pessimism despite his stock price being up pretty massively the last 2 years or they catch up on Matt Levine's writing about Red Lobster's BKO, or they hear Loretta Mester and Bostic imply higher for longer.

Tuesday's is another light day for economic data, so you'll have to read about copper, gold, shrimp, cybersecurity, whoever announces something involving AI (see AI PC's), wars, hear the same Fedspeak, etc.

XTOD: Jamie Dimon: "We do know the consumers are running out of excess money.  Small businesses are running out of excess money. We don't know when it's going to end, but it looks like sometimes early next year..."

XTOD: A record 55% of fund managers surveyed this month by Bank of America say global fiscal policy is too stimulative. Easier monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy could be positive for US 30-year Treasuries: BofA's Michael Hartnett

XTOD: Details from Red Lobster’s bankruptcy filing are wild and so much mismanagement:

▫️$1B in debt, $30m in cash   ▫️Previous PE owner sold land and leased it back to Red Lobster at “above market rates” ▫️$20 Endless Shrimp cost it $11m but the interesting part is that one of the chain’s owners is Thai seafood firm Thai Union (which also owns Chicken By The Sea) and it may have used Endless shrimp to dump its own shrimp supply through the 578 restaurants in North America  - Thai Union became the only Red Lobster shrimp vendor, overcharging for shrimp and skipping quality reviews (Thai Union has written off its $500m+ investment) ▫️Red Lobster has had 5 CEO in the last 5 years (!!!)

▫️Sales down 30% since 2019

XTOD: BofA: The bar for hikes is high, but cuts are still a way off... Also, we reject the "stagflation" narrative that has resurfaced recently. The consumer spending outlook is solid.

XTOD (If you want a long thread on shipping...I don't): Global containerized ocean freight prices are surging to levels not seen since the pandemic supply chain crunch. Some key trade lane rates are up 140% since mid-December and increasing by the week. What’s happening, why, and what it means for businesses needing products moved? 

XTOD: The fact that inflation is mostly in services means that these disruptions probably haven't added to inflation yet. Which is why they're so worrying -- it means a supply shock is coming and hasn't been felt yet.

XTOD: What is the cost of inaction? What is your status quo costing you, and how can you make the pain painful enough to drive you forward?

XTOD: You just have to be willing to look like an idiot while you figure it out.

Because once you figure it out, everyone else looks like an idiot for doubting you.

Daily Economic Update: May 20, 2024

Are my daily economic updates best read from the bottom up?  

Friday featured the Chinese property market bailout. It's been a good month for equities.  The week ahead is light on economic data so Fedspeak and the Minutes of the FOMC meeting will likely be the highlights as will Nvidia earnings.

Mentioned in Friday's post, the recent Blanchard and Bernanke paper on the last mile of inflation seemed to advocate a very Phillip's Curve dominate mentality, that unemployment will have to rise before inflation can return to target.  I thought this post from NGDP Targeting proponent Marcus Nunes, citing comments from economist George Selgin, laid out some interesting thoughts in retort to Blanchard and Bernanke.  You be the judge of the merits of the arguments.

4.83% on 2s and 4.42% on 10s is where we start the week in fixed income. 

On the week ahead:

Monday & Tuesday: Fedspeak

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes

Thursday:  Jobless Claims, flash PMI's, New home sales

Friday: Durable Goods, consumer sentiment and Waller

XTOD: 1. Tweet triggered by some of the discussion following the publication of my new paper with Ben Bernanke. To clarify an important point. Finding that pre-pandemic era inflation was mostly due to relative price movements, especially the relative price of commodities, and that the labor market played a limited role, does not settle the issue of the role of aggregate demand and monetary policy in generating the inflation.  2. It may well be that part of the increase in commodity prices reflected higher world demand for commodities, triggered in part by lose monetary and fiscal policy, in particular but not only US fiscal policy. 3. Indeed, if one believes that individual commodity prices reflect a common aggregate demand component together with largely commodity specific supply shocks, one can use a principal component analysis to extract this common aggregate demand component. We did this in Bernanke Blanchard 2023. https://shorturl.at/s9IGs , Figure 5.  The conclusion that it indeed played an important role, at least until the end of 2022.

XTOD: GOLDMAN'S PASQUARIELLO: ".. a handful of the biggest money managers I know have recently made strong arguments for ongoing durability in the US economy.  if there’s a common thread across them, it’s the momentum behind spending on AI, infrastructure, onshoring and defense.  I agree with the broad thesis and will register that GS is calling for Q2 GDP growth of 3.2%, while the 

@AtlantaFed  is predicting 3.6% .. it stands in contrast to the ongoing pessimism I see in the press and hear on the street (specifically regarding the consumer, which I don’t agree with)."

XTOD: 7/7  When the Fed starts cutting rates at an all-time high, the stock market is signaling that the Fed is not restrictive and/or inflation is not a problem. If the market thought the Fed was restrictive and/or inflation was a problem, it would not be at a new high. So, when easier money comes, stocks boom.  But when stocks are not at an all-time high, the market signals a problem. Easy money is either not a fix or contributes to that problem, like spurring inflation. In this case, stocks struggle to break even.  Finally, if the Fed cuts a year before a recession, the signs of a recession were most likely evident, like an inverted yield curve in 2019, crashing housing prices in 2007, or the tech stocks deflating in 2001.   In this case, the Fed cut attempts to reverse this trend (read: panicking to stop the recession), and it is unsuccessful.   Conclusion  The problem with thinking rate cuts would produce lower spending is rooted in the belief that rate cuts are like candy raining down from the sky. Rate cuts only produce pleasure and never pain. So, cut rates, watch inflation fall, and stocks can boom.  It is not that simple. If markets do not believe interest rates are a problem, cutting them could produce an adverse outcome. In this case, stocks might boom and supercharge inflation via a demand-driven wealth effect. Right now, the markets do not yet see inflation as completely stamped out. Cutting rates could spur fears of more inflation and drive interest rates higher.

XTOD: It takes a special kind of elite intelligentsia to suggest that rate cuts would ease inflation. 

An out-of-control externally funded fiscal deficit drove inflation skyward, inflation is now becoming embedded in expectations, and the “contrarian” position is that the central bank should be dovish to — tame inflation.  Spiking interest payments that jack the Gini coefficient and raise inequality because the 0.1% collect rates while peasants pay them is not inflation. It’s Brazilification.  You know how I have mentioned over and over on recent podcasts that the US asset mgmt industry has absolutely zero knowledge or concept of EM-ification and what this means for assets? Consider this clip Exhibit A. 

Behold your financial leaders in action, ladies and gentlemen….the CIO of fixed income at the world’s largest asset manager. FIXED INCOME! 

Rieder has zero concept what he is signing up for. If he is indeed representative of intelligent financial leadership in America, I know *exactly* what to do with all this, and I’m here for it.

XTOD: "Margin of safety—you can also call it room for error or redundancy—is the only effective way to safely navigate a world that is governed by odds, not certainties. And almost everything related to money exists in that kind of world."  — Morgan Housel

XTOD: There are 4 types of wealth: 

1. Financial wealth (money)

2. Social wealth (status)

3. Time wealth (freedom)

4. Physical wealth (health)

Be wary of jobs that lure you in with 1 and 2, but rob you of 3 and 4.

XTOD: “Sometimes when I reflect on all the beer I drink, I feel ashamed. Then I look into the glass and think about the workers in the brewery & all of their hopes and dreams. If I didn't drink this beer, they might be out of work and their dreams would be shattered"

Babe Ruth

Daily Economic Update: May 17, 2024

Dow ~40K, risk assets doing well, people apparently ordering $1,000 Beef Cases in Vegas nightclubs, all against a backdrop where Fed officials stress higher for longer and as some people worry about the consumer.  Macro is hard.  

"There are better things to be doing than watching the ticker all day, swinging from bull to bear, obsessing over stuff no ne will remember in five years.  Lester Freeman said it best on The Wire: "A life, Jimmy, you know what that is? It's what happens while you're waiting for moments that never come." - Joshua Brown (Ritholtz Wealth Management)

Speaking of The Wire, remember that last October I started every post with a quote from The Wire?  Those quotes were probably contain more wisdom and value than any commentary on the most recent CPI data. 

In data, which data didn't seem to matter, jobless claims were low and perhaps under-looked was the rise in import prices which seems weird given dollar strength, but I didn't investigate.  Away from the data in Fedspeak Barkin said it will take more time for inflation to come back to target and Mester echoed much of the same citing the fact that the economy is strong and the Fed risk little by keeping rates higher for longer.  Bernanke and Blanchard basically came out and said people need to lose jobs for inflation to come down, kind of what Powell said when he said "there will be pain" in the fight to get inflation back down.

Jamie Dimon believes there are a 'lot of inflationary forces in front of us' but that he believes the markets are failing to properly price risks to a soft landing, including that of higher rates due to higher inflation.

Dimon isn't in the business of predicting rates per se, when he does, he's often wrong, but I do believe he has a track record as a prudent risk manager.  When it comes to risk management, remember, 'The price of long term stock market returns is uncertainty and volatility.' - Morgan Housel.   And I think what you can learn from everyone wiser than me is what the late great Peter Bernstein said: "survival is the only road to riches. Let me say that again: Survival is the only road to riches. You should try to maximize return only if losses would not threaten your survival and if you have a compelling future need for the extra gains you might earn."

On the day ahead, it's Friday.  Maybe re-read the quotes above.  The leading indicators and Gov. Waller can wait.

XTOD (this doesn't sound fun): 2. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tighter labor markets, and the resulting rises in nominal wages, have become relatively more important sources of the remaining inflation in many countries. What happens in labor markets will largely determine the cost of the “last mile”. In several countries, including the United States, curbing wage inflation, and returning price inflation to target may require a period of modestly higher unemployment

XTOD: If you don’t eat, don’t have a home and don’t have a car, inflation is gone  The homeless are seeing deflation here! Time to cut rates  The homeless can jet from tent village to tent village with a pretty decent discount though! Happy days

XTOD: Compounding is great, except when it comes to inflation...

▪ Inflation hasn't fallen in a single month since Jan 2021

▪ YoY inflation hasn't dipped below 3% in 37 consecutive months

▪ Prices are up 19.5% in less than 4 years, wiping out 1/5th of the Dollar's purchasing power 

Welcome to compounding inflation

XTOD: Starwood’s $10bn property fund taps credit line as investors pull money via ⁦ @FT

⁩ #CMBS https://www.ft.com/content/1b0ce791-e387-4ea4-852a-14d59b3ced1f?sharetype=blocked

XTOD: Show me a person who has never failed, and I will show you a failure of a person. What we learn from failure, and what we do with that knowledge, is what matters –– and it's what makes us who we are.

Daily Economic Update: May 16, 2024

CPI downside surprise allows risk assets to reach new record highs (I'm working on my poetic prowess).  Taking stock of stocks S&P at 5,308 with records for Nasdaq and Dow as well.  Does one CPI print coming in lower than estimate after 3 straight higher than expected prints really mark a new trend? Does it matter Powell says no hikes ever again or something like that and he’s never pivoted, right? (Remember “we’re along way from neutral” in 2018? )

Headline CPI came in at at 3.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM vs. consensus of 3.4% and 0.4%. The MoM Core reading at 0.3% v. the 0.4% est and prior seemed to be what caused the market to rejoice. Slowing primary and owners equivalent rents, declining car prices were highlighted but there still seem to be some persistent inflation in personal services, healthcare and car insurance

Retail sales were unchanged coming in below consensus and showed a decline in the control group.

Still lots of chatter expressing concerns about labor market and loan delinquencies, guess time will tell.

Yields fell 10bps with markets pricing in about 2 rate cuts, with some pulling forward their forecast for the first cut to come in July.  The 2Y is 4.73% and 10Y is 4.34%.

On the day ahead it is jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilization on the data front and Fed's Williams as the highlight of Fedspeak.

You can start looking forward to a Presidential debate in June.

XTOD: Forecasters got this month exactly right. Monthly core CPI inflation rate eased off a little from the last few months but still high.

Annual rates:

1 month: 3.6%

3 months: 4.1%

6 months: 4.0%

12 months: 3.6%

Bottom line: A relatively dull report that won't change anything. Inflation is still too high. A tiny bit of easing but no surprise there--there never was any reason to believe underlying inflation was anything like the 4.5% pace we had been seeing in recent months.

XTOD: Ed Yardeni: “If the Fed does start to lower interest rates that could create a meltup” on the S&P 500, meaning “we’d blow right through 5,400 in a heartbeat, and we could very well get to my target of 6,000 for the end of next year by the end of this year.”

XTOD: BMO: “.. it has become clear to us that we underestimated the strength of the market momentum .. As such, we are increasing our 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,600, which currently represents the highest forecast based on the latest Bloomberg strategist survey. .. the market is behaving in a similar fashion to 2021 and 2023 – years where we did not give enough credit to the strength of market momentum, something we are trying to avoid this time around.” [Belski.

XTOD: The bull case for stocks for year end.  It's a magical place where term premiums stay at zero. 30 yr bonds yield 4% AND earnings grow 11% a year this year and next. That level is 6350 or a 19% return.  It would require earnings growth AND multiple increases from 21.2 to 23.5 $SPY

XTOD: At my hedge fund, I pay an analyst to walk around parks in Austin, SF, and NY and ask these people who are tanning at 2pm on a Tuesday where they work.  We then short the stock.We’re up 728% this year.

Daily Economic Update: May 15, 2024

CPI Day is here, the anticipation is palpable. Unless you care more about meme stocks, anything involving AI, crypto meme coins, longer term ramifications of geopolitics, tariffs, the 2024 election, sports, your family, etc. (hopefully not in that order)...this is the day you've been waiting for all week.

PPI came in hot, maybe those consumer and business inflation surveys mentioned yesterday were onto something. Headline PPI was up +0.5% MoM above the 0.3% est. with services up 0.6%.  A lot of attention seems to have landed on the 3.9% increase in the cost of portfolio management.  Markets going up, leads to portfolio management fees go up and that is in PPI.  That gives a new sense of how/why "financial conditions" matter.  Remember when the Fed said they were relying upon financial conditions tightening to do some of the work for them, has that happened?  Even yesterday Powell said that he thinks about monetary policy through its "effect on financial conditions more broadly and on the economy".  Judging by PPI, I guess the answer to whether financial conditions are tightening is found by asking your financial advisor, after all they are likely making more money because your assets are up.

In other Fed news, both NY Fed and STL Fed had reports out that express some concern in rising credit card delinquencies, something to add to your list of things to keep an eye on.

Powell kept the script on being data dependent as it relates to "higher for longer" and that he isn't ready to prejudge whether inflation will remain persistent going forward.

On the day ahead it's CPI, Retail Sales and moar Fedspeak.

I guess I'll get back to drawing pictures to animate and Tweet out in an effort to cause certain stocks to moon, I'll report back when complete.

XTOD: The market is beyond satire, you can’t make it up

XTOD: Here's   what should be done to address inflation: cut government spending, lower overnight rates, and remove the excess liquidity that's still sitting in the RRP facility.

XTOD: I just imposed a series of tariffs on goods made in China:  25% on steel and aluminum,  50% on semiconductors,  100% on EVs,  And 50% on solar panels.  China is determined to dominate these industries. I'm determined to ensure America leads the world in them.

XTOD: And are lumber tariffs next? This is not the path to a healthier economy!

XTOD: Don't understand how "protecting/hiding" our companies from the global competitive reality helps America "lead." In contrast, it will make our companies weaker by limiting their fitness. It will also drive further inflation.  Certainly the lobbyists in DC are happy w/ outcome.

XTOD: People talking abt election odds should be paying attention to the fact that the (actuarial) probability of at least one of the 2 main presidential candidate dying over the next year is ~12%**plus or minus adjustment for current health.

XTOD: Time is the greatest ally of compounding and confers exponential powers upon those who think and act long term.   n is the only element in the compound interest equation that exists in the exponent and is the numeric that the entire expression is raised to the power of.