S&P 500 hits a new record. Yields were down slightly, but overall it was another quiet day. Gov. Waller says that in the absence in higher unemployment, he needs to see several more good inflation prints before cutting rates. He did seem to downplay the need to raise rates further and the easing of financial conditions. Waller joins a chorus of Fedspeak that all seem to say they need to see more data before being willing to cut rates will also holding a view that policy is restrictive and just needs more time. We’ll see what FOMC Minutes, though now stale, have to provide that might be of any interest.
Away from Fedspeak is always and everywhere AI. The latest buzz in AI news seems to be the threatened lawsuit by Scarlett Johansson against OpenAI where she asserts that after she turned down providing OpenAI permission to use her voice they essentially trained an AI personal assistant to sound just like her.
You'll get to hear plenty about AI today with Nvidia earnings on the come today.
And away from AI you have Biden planning to release another million barrels from the SPR to help ease gas prices ahead of the 4th of July. Some might argue this doesn't quite get at the heart of the high price problem, but others could argue that the administration has been a pretty good oil and gas trading firm.
On the day ahead we get FOMC Minutes and new home sales along with Nvidia earnings.
XTOD: Some more fallout from the Freddie multifamily probe: The agency has placed valuation & appraisal firm BBG Real Estate under review, and says it will not accept any deals where BBG's Jon DiPietra is involved. See screenshots attached...In November, Freddie rocked the MF world when news broke that had placed Ralph Herzka's Meridian under investigation over an allegedly dodgy loan deal. There's been a lot of turmoil since, w sister agency Fannie blackballing title firms (riverside,Madison)
XTOD: This Craigslist ad for a 1999 Toyota Corolla is a masterclass in copywriting. https://x.com/amandanat/status/1792943756951584929
XTOD: The Fed survey of economic well-being is out; some changes at the margin, but the basic story remains that Americans say they're doing mostly OK, their local economy isn't too bad, but the national economy is terrible 1
XTOD: Bill Miller on the value of simplicity: “For every company, there are a few key investment variables. The rest of the stuff is noise.” “Are things getting better or worse? If they’re getting better, then I want to understand what’s going on.”
XTOD: It makes relatively little difference whether the Fed targets 2%, or 3%, or 0%, inflation. The bigger difference is that between any inflation target and an aggregate spending (e.g., NGDP) target, which lets the inflation rate vary with aggregate supply innovations...Some of the Fed's biggest errors have stemmed from its failure to stabilize spending when supply innovations made doing so inconsistent with inflation targeting. It would be a shame if it missed yet another opportunity to take the stable spending alternative seriously.
https://x.com/hitsamty/status/1793004379609673873
https://x.com/amandanat/status/1792943756951584929
https://x.com/paulkrugman/status/1793006535771119755
https://x.com/NeckarValue/status/1792578146522321070
https://x.com/GeorgeSelgin/status/1792974867156865090
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