Is Morgan Stanely's Mike Wilson switching from market bear to bull a sign of the top or should we just give the guy some credit for being able to change views? After all, "“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?” ― John Maynard Keynes
What do people do when there is no inflation, employment or growth data to obsess over? I guess they listen to Dimon express pessimism despite his stock price being up pretty massively the last 2 years or they catch up on Matt Levine's writing about Red Lobster's BKO, or they hear Loretta Mester and Bostic imply higher for longer.
Tuesday's is another light day for economic data, so you'll have to read about copper, gold, shrimp, cybersecurity, whoever announces something involving AI (see AI PC's), wars, hear the same Fedspeak, etc.
XTOD: Jamie Dimon: "We do know the consumers are running out of excess money. Small businesses are running out of excess money. We don't know when it's going to end, but it looks like sometimes early next year..."
XTOD: A record 55% of fund managers surveyed this month by Bank of America say global fiscal policy is too stimulative. Easier monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy could be positive for US 30-year Treasuries: BofA's Michael Hartnett
XTOD: Details from Red Lobster’s bankruptcy filing are wild and so much mismanagement:
▫️$1B in debt, $30m in cash ▫️Previous PE owner sold land and leased it back to Red Lobster at “above market rates” ▫️$20 Endless Shrimp cost it $11m but the interesting part is that one of the chain’s owners is Thai seafood firm Thai Union (which also owns Chicken By The Sea) and it may have used Endless shrimp to dump its own shrimp supply through the 578 restaurants in North America - Thai Union became the only Red Lobster shrimp vendor, overcharging for shrimp and skipping quality reviews (Thai Union has written off its $500m+ investment) ▫️Red Lobster has had 5 CEO in the last 5 years (!!!)
▫️Sales down 30% since 2019
XTOD: BofA: The bar for hikes is high, but cuts are still a way off... Also, we reject the "stagflation" narrative that has resurfaced recently. The consumer spending outlook is solid.
XTOD (If you want a long thread on shipping...I don't): Global containerized ocean freight prices are surging to levels not seen since the pandemic supply chain crunch. Some key trade lane rates are up 140% since mid-December and increasing by the week. What’s happening, why, and what it means for businesses needing products moved?
XTOD: The fact that inflation is mostly in services means that these disruptions probably haven't added to inflation yet. Which is why they're so worrying -- it means a supply shock is coming and hasn't been felt yet.
XTOD: What is the cost of inaction? What is your status quo costing you, and how can you make the pain painful enough to drive you forward?
XTOD: You just have to be willing to look like an idiot while you figure it out.
Because once you figure it out, everyone else looks like an idiot for doubting you.
https://x.com/lesliepicker/status/1792588211224506533?s=46&t=D2AESCsaw42dAEzgmjXHQA
https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1792501033836425512
https://x.com/TrungTPhan/status/1792580920106467425
https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1792527132674945154
https://x.com/typesfast/status/1792572653850747158
https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/1792599805736460458
https://x.com/tferriss/status/1792604784718922183?s=46&t=D2AESCsaw42dAEzgmjXHQA
https://x.com/alexhormozi/status/1792587042808816043?s=46&t=D2AESCsaw42dAEzgmjXHQA
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