Dow ~40K, risk assets doing well, people apparently ordering $1,000 Beef Cases in Vegas nightclubs, all against a backdrop where Fed officials stress higher for longer and as some people worry about the consumer. Macro is hard.
"There are better things to be doing than watching the ticker all day, swinging from bull to bear, obsessing over stuff no ne will remember in five years. Lester Freeman said it best on The Wire: "A life, Jimmy, you know what that is? It's what happens while you're waiting for moments that never come." - Joshua Brown (Ritholtz Wealth Management)
Speaking of The Wire, remember that last October I started every post with a quote from The Wire? Those quotes were probably contain more wisdom and value than any commentary on the most recent CPI data.
In data, which data didn't seem to matter, jobless claims were low and perhaps under-looked was the rise in import prices which seems weird given dollar strength, but I didn't investigate. Away from the data in Fedspeak Barkin said it will take more time for inflation to come back to target and Mester echoed much of the same citing the fact that the economy is strong and the Fed risk little by keeping rates higher for longer. Bernanke and Blanchard basically came out and said people need to lose jobs for inflation to come down, kind of what Powell said when he said "there will be pain" in the fight to get inflation back down.
Jamie Dimon believes there are a 'lot of inflationary forces in front of us' but that he believes the markets are failing to properly price risks to a soft landing, including that of higher rates due to higher inflation.
Dimon isn't in the business of predicting rates per se, when he does, he's often wrong, but I do believe he has a track record as a prudent risk manager. When it comes to risk management, remember, 'The price of long term stock market returns is uncertainty and volatility.' - Morgan Housel. And I think what you can learn from everyone wiser than me is what the late great Peter Bernstein said: "survival is the only road to riches. Let me say that again: Survival is the only road to riches. You should try to maximize return only if losses would not threaten your survival and if you have a compelling future need for the extra gains you might earn."
On the day ahead, it's Friday. Maybe re-read the quotes above. The leading indicators and Gov. Waller can wait.
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