FOMC day is here, what presents will Powell come bearing to the markets? Whatever the Fed does, it won't stop Fartcoin.
Dow losing streak is now the longest since the 70’s and that’s despite Nvidia being a Dow member and despite a strong retail sales print. Speaking of the Dow does anyone remember the “Dogs of the Dow” investment strategy? I wonder if that would work these days. Value stocks generally have been taking it on the chin.
In terms of retail sales data, core retail sales rose 0.4% while headline sales rose 0.7% with auto sales being strong. The industrial production and manufacturing data came in weaker than expected apparently due to declines related to aircraft. The ATL Fed lowered their GDP estimate from 3.3% to 3.1%.
In yield land things were little changed despite a relatively poor 20Y auction. The 2Y is 4.25% and the 10Y is 4.40%. Kind of hard to believe UK 10Y Gilts are up at 4.50%, even higher than when the head of lettuce was on YouTube. In dollar land the dollar remains strong.
In politics, the Canadian govt. in apparently in turmoil as a result of Trump's planned tariffs, which I guess means they are joining the ranks of Germany and France as developed countries where leadership is in doubt.
XTOD: Please stop using hashtags. The system doesn’t need them anymore and they look ugly.
XTOD: Hedge fund managers will raise billions and hire teams of Ivy League grads just to underperform degen 14 year olds trading Fartcoin in their mom’s basements
XTOD: The 2025 outlook for the Fed will hinge on two defining debates: 1) What's a neutral rate for the post-pandemic economy? 2) How do policy changes (trade, tax, immigation, regulation) change the inflation forecast and the risks around it?
XTOD: “I don’t know how to predict the stock market, I don’t know how to predict interest rates, I don’t know how to predict business. All I know is if I buy the right kind of business at the right price with the right people I’ll do well over time.” — Warren Buffett
XTOD: The ideal form of work feels like play, but still accomplishes something useful and valuable.
Joyful for you. Helpful to others.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869070358210572306
https://x.com/litcapital/status/1869099493171548666
https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1869020786532798805
https://x.com/InvestingCanons/status/1868883229341560947
https://x.com/JamesClear/status/1869099752421306538
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