Apollo's Slok warns of higher rates in 2025 and the risk that 2025 will be a repeat of 2022 where both stocks and bonds performed poorly. Not everyone agrees obviously, after all differences of opinions make a market.
Yesterday's Empire Mfg survey, which is always volatile in my opinion, was weaker than expected with falling new orders, shipments and employment. In S&P PMI data the services sector looked good and manufacturing weaker...I think the U.S. is described as a service based economy, so I guess this is good.
Stocks mostly up, at least the techy ones that matter, market breadth is terrible and the Dow is on an eight day losing streak. Yields were up too. The 2Y is 4.26% and the 10Y is 4.40%.
What does the data matter anyway when Bitcoin is around $110K and Microstrategy is you know doing some arb (or con?). China's economy seems broken, or broke, I'm not sure. Brazil appears to be in bad shape too. Does anyone even temember BRICs anyway (it was coined by Goldman in 2001) ? And we still don't know much about these drones, are they sniffing for nuclear material, who knows. Drones aren't stopping Masa Son from reportedly looking to invest $100 billion in the U.S. over the next 4 years.
On the day ahead it's Retail Sales, Industrial Production, 20Y Auction.
XTOD: Powell is (again) trying to find the right gear for monetary policy amid signs the labor market is less wobbly and inflation is a touch firmer than they appeared in September. He faces misgivings from some colleagues over continuing to cut and less conviction from others who strongly backed those first two moves. Given current market expectations of a cut, the path of least resistance would be to cut by a quarter point, and then use new economic projections to strongly hint that the central bank is ready to go more slowly on the reductions. Full story (no paywall in the link) has more details on the delicate steps officials took to arrive at this point: https://wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-outlook-2025-657e718a?st=U6AjWz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
XTOD: The way I like to put it is that my job is to say the same few things 50-100 times a year, but do so without either my editors or my readers noticing that I’m repeating myself. It’s harder to do than it sounds, though.
XTOD: You must understand the following: In order to master a field, you must love the subject and feel a profound connection to it. Your interest must transcend the field itself and border on the religious.
https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1868656588921217341
https://x.com/jasonzweigwsj/status/1868629695971066066
https://x.com/RobertGreene/status/1868340248385933367
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