FOMC week starts with the major indexes on a losing streak and bond yields having recently crept back a little higher off their lows. Nonetheless the cake is baked for a 25bp cut this Wednesday. We'll get BoE and BoJ in the mix as well to make this week truly a holiday treat. In less of a holiday treat, S. Korea impeached their president following the recent attempted maritial law debacle.
Of course investors are still excited about a deregulatory push, low taxes, and generally pro business policies, along with a Fed that is likely to have their back in 2025. There is seemingly less concern about "frothy valuations" despite valuation metrics putting the current market on par with other "bubbles" in hisotry. Time will tell.
Beyond that drones and nobody watches the NBA this year.
On the week ahead:
Monday: S&P PMI's
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, 20Y Auction
Wednesday: Building Permits, Housing Starts and FOMC
Thursday: BoE, 3Q GDP Final read, Jobless Claims, New Home Sales
Friday: PCE, UofM
XTOD: Michael Saylor's $MSTR is added to the Nasdaq on December 23rd. Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers CEO is warning about a massive margin call on Bitcoin loans... This is the perfect storm.
XTOD: ZIRP and “passive flows” are I think the two most overrated phenomena of the last 15 years. I think basically any story about markets since the GFC has to start (and probably end) with the extraordinary realized earnings growth of a handful of gigantic tech companies.
XTOD: Starting a company is awesome if you want to feel like a piece of shit one day and king of the universe next day and just keep alternating back and forth forever and ever
XTOD: In any case, the idea that spreads matter more than levels seems like an important idea. Same idea holds for the yield curve. A Friedman rule for the yield curve would likely argue for a flat yield curve most of the time.
XTOD: Love this insight from John Bragg on keeping costs low. "It’s a fact that a low-cost producer can become a great marketer. The easiest profits come on the cost side. A dollar saved in expenses goes directly to the bottom line. We have a saying that goes like this: “You cannot sell your way to prosperity.” By this I mean—don’t try to fix the problems by sales alone. Get the operations fixed and then work on sales." My episode on The Knowledge Project Podcast with Bragg is one of the most listened to in 2024!
XTOD: “When you go through life with preferences but don’t let your happiness depend on any one of them, then you’re awake.” — Anthony de Mello
https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1867831656188444772
https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1868381088428728601
https://x.com/growing_daniel/status/1867429866658050430
https://x.com/dandolfa/status/1867687971400692108
https://x.com/ShaneAParrish/status/1867575042516615514
https://x.com/tferriss/status/1868010506713199053
No comments:
Post a Comment