China continues with stimulus. AI stocks (sans Supermicro Computer) continue to have legs and overall everything is perceived as bullish for equities. Powell didn't say anything about monetary policy, so that was that.
On the data front, you still can't get fired with jobless claims at a 4 month low, this despite constant headlines about layoffs (so maybe they'll make it to claims eventually). Pending home sales slightly higher than expected, Durable Goods orders held up and 2Q GDP was confirmed at 3% and most of the revisions to previously reported growth estimates were positive. The 7Y auction solid.
Away from data there is still war, there is the threat of East coast port strikes next week and Mayor Adams was indicted (if he goes to jail will he be in the same jail as Diddy and SBF?)
On the day ahead it's PCE Day!
XTOD: These BEA revisions seem material. A common recession narrative has been GDP would "catch down" to weaker GDI, and that low savings rate indicated consumer stress. But today it was GDI revised significantly higher due to greater interest income, leading to higher savings rate.
XTOD: Revised GDP for Q2, the more interesting news is in the revisions which go back the last five years. Notably: Remember the debate over whether there was a recession in 2022 because of two quarters in a row of negative growth? Well, one of those quarters was revised to positive. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYZ446XbIAAi_3S?format=png&name=small
XTOD: The $NVDA bull & bear case summarized in 2 minutes by Zuck. It is that simple. https://x.com/i/status/1839304406938038624
XTOD: The game of football is officially broken. NIL, transfer portal, 6th year seniors, high school kids being offered money to play college ball or transferring 2-3 times between freshmen - senior year in high school, youth select travel teams, personal trainers making more money than Bill Gates from training 9 year olds how to run routes. We are just chasing after the wind. Good luck catching it.
Football was once built on the foundation of commitment, grit, finish what you start no matter the cost.
We should apologize now to future employers, wives, and children for the young men that are learning to quit or leave when things are difficult or times get tough.
XTOD (READ the full thread if interested) : A #Refinance Solicitation: True story from a client call yesterday. "They told me I'd save about $300 per month and it would only cost me $1,219. Sounds like a good deal to me! Can you tell me what you can offer before I proceed with them?" The Devil is in the details! https://x.com/AdvisorJohn/status/1839347434612498864
XTOD: Clarity comes from subtraction, not addition. Remove the noise, the distractions, and the unnecessary. What truly matters will emerge.
https://x.com/negitrage/status/1839323465662575055
https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/1839290674207936568
https://x.com/RihardJarc/status/1839304406938038624
https://x.com/jimshapiro/status/1838910560521572497
https://x.com/AdvisorJohn/status/1839347434612498864
https://x.com/GregoryMcKeown/status/1839099944692519249
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