Happy last day before we start the 4th quarter. On Friday, PCE data was waeker than expected in the MoM core at 0.13%, yet the YoY rate increased to 2.7%. I'm not sure it mattered as markets seem much more focused on Chinese stimulus and labor markets for the moment, where the focus will shift to this Friday's job's report.
We ended the week with Atlanta Fed's GDPnow estimate for 3Q2024 revised up to 3.1%. The NY Fed nowcast is in general agreement at 2.99%. Stocks in general agreement that things aren't bad (or maybe they just believe in the Fed put). The 2Y is 3.57% and the 10Y at 3.75%.
Away from markets you have historic flooding as a result of Helene and continued dismantlement of Hezbollah leadership by Israel. Not top of mind for many is the fact that Oct.1 starts the resumption of normal collections, late fees, reporting to credit agencies, etc. for student loans.
On an unrealted note, if you're looking for a perhaps under the radar podcast on AI, I thought this podcast with Edward Chancellor and Marathon Asset Management was interesting https://shows.acast.com/66acfe26e65b9fd5b02a0fcd/66b22e2fec20c36e8ebf8542
6-month annualized rate: 2.4% (lowest since Dec)
3-month annualized rate: 2.1%
XTOD: I think about this often, living in a tech transplant-centric area On a given weekday, I see moms and dads shopping together, at the gym for 9 am yoga, walking dogs at 10 am, picking up kids from school at 3 pm…etc Part of me celebrates that we’ve unlocked this level of work/life balance It’s an enormous quality of life booster for working parents with kids But part of me also fears this is “too good to be true” Perhaps a number of these jobs are disposable, or at the very least, transferable overseas Perhaps some of these couples are semi-retired, living off a wealth effect that may dwindle away in a stock market correction, or if inflation relentlessly drives cost of living higher Time will tell.
XTOD: Google breached the mindshare moat w a spartan web page that was fast - and an AOL deal that raised awareness - kids started “googling”. And then it was over. Technology is required but not sufficient - mindshare is lightening in a bottle that triggers network effects. 💥
XTOD: And these foreign interests trying to cash in on big city real estate development are just following the example set by our own home-grown developers who've been bribing mayors, inspectors, and local politicians for decades to build "luxury" developments that charge obscene rents
XTOD: Modern life rewards distraction and consumption. But fulfillment comes from focus and simplicity. Reclaim your time. Reclaim your health. Reclaim your life.
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