Another Friday, Jobs Day is here. The consensus estimate is 200 to 215K depending on where you look, but the whisper number seems a little higher following this week's ISM manufacturing and Powell's comments on immigration. It seems no one believes that the number will come close to the 275K printed in the March headline. As usual average hourly earnings and unemployment rate will both be closely watched. No matter what the number you'll easily be able to find someone to tell you that it was due to the weather or that all of this data is of low quality these days due to survey responses falling.
Yesterday saw jobless claims rise slightly but still tracking historically low levels. In Fedspeak, Kashkari said the quiet part out loud, that the Fed might not cut this year (if inflation stalls...which it kind of has). Oil spiking probably doesn't help the inflation fight either. Stocks fell and yields actually fell slightly as well. Heading into Jobs day it's a 2Y at 4.65% and a 10Y at 4.31%.
XTOD: A lot of people seem to have a necessary level of stress, and when their life is going well they make up imaginary problems to fill the void.
XTOD: Am I heading back to H4L island
Definitely not. That is consensus now. I am sailing the economic slowdown sea and the sirens of soft landing island are beckoning and I am lashed to the mast and heading toward recession island which is deserted.
Dead
CDX protection buyers
Vol buyers
Equity shorts
KRE shorts
STIR buyers
Litter the shores of recession island not a sole alive
XTOD: “Wasting your time doubting whether you’re going to be successful is pointless.” ~ Kobe Bryant
XTOD: Essay: In trying to manage my ever growing list of passwords, I often find myself daydreaming about simpler times, when one could simply call a doctor’s office and speak to a short-tempered human to schedule an appointment https://on.wsj.com/3TK5cZK
XTOD: Re: 4 Day Work Week: This is inevitable & so incredibly bullish for US economy. Everyone is insane workaholic but also everyone is doing at least a day's worth of busywork AI can do. And no one has any chill so what will they do with that extra day? Shop and buy things to fill the void
https://x.com/morganhousel/status/1775970750295589341
https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1775829202094207170
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1775702575913820330
https://x.com/WSJ/status/1775992174062002595
https://x.com/AdamSinger/status/1775873912460529812
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