Eclipse Monday.
"I'm not the only one staring at the sun" ???
or "Black hole won't you come and wash away the rain" ???
or "And everything under the sun is in tune But the sun is eclipsed by the moon"
or "And everything under the sun is in tune But the sun is eclipsed by the moon"
Strong job data causes equities to bounce, setting off east coast earthquake on Friday…or something like that. Correlation is not causation. Now we have Eclipse Monday...
Jobs +303K, well above consensus with unemployment rate at 3.8% and average hourly earnings holding in there at a solid 0.35%. Rate cuts? We're talking about rate cuts?
We start the week with coming off a losing week for equities and with the 2Y yield sitting 4.76% and 10Y yield sitting at 4.40%.
Your goal for the week: think about such elusive concepts as R*, measuring productivity, and equity risk premium. Good luck.
Another CPI report and PPI on the come.....just consider for a moment some thoughts from Nassim Taleb on what he calls the "Noise Bottleneck"....
"In business and economic decision-making, data causes severe side effects —data is now plentiful thanks to connectivity; and the share of spuriousness in the data increases as one gets more immersed into it. A not well discussed property of data: it is toxic in large quantities —even in moderate quantities....The more frequently you look at data, the more noise you are disproportionally likely to get (rather than the valuable part called the signal); hence the higher the noise to signal ratio....To conclude, the best way to mitigate interventionism is to ration the supply of information, as naturalistically as possible. This is hard to accept in the age of the internet. It has been very hard for me to explain that the more data you get, the less you know what’s going on, and the more iatrogenics you will cause."
Monday: Try not to get blinded by the eclipse
Tuesday: NFIB optimism
Wednesday: CPI
Thursday: PPI, Jobless Claims
Friday: Import Prices, Consumer Sentiment
XTOD: “Knowledge compounds almost in the same way that your money compounds. In fact, only when your knowledge compounds at a faster pace, your money is safe. To me, that is a very fascinating journey and rewarding life.” — Li Lu
XTOD: “The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays.” — Morgan Housel
XTOD: Financial institutions operate by a kind of reverse Occam's razor.
They have a large incentive to favor the complex and costly over the simple and cheap, quite the opposite of what most investors need and ought to want. - Jack Bogle
XTOD: 46% of people take less Paid Time Off than offered. I would’ve guessed the number is 80% tbh. It’s a big problem for Americans either way. “Feel badly about co-workers taking on additional work.”
XTOD: Israel bombing Iranian embassy in Syria and now Ecuador invading (!) Mexican Embassy in Quito—feels like a lot of international law and taboos are being broken with very uncertain long term consequences.
XTOD: BREAKING - #Armenia's defence ministry reports numerous areas came under fire from #Azerbaijan last night, including areas around the villages of Movses, Chinari, Sotk, Verin Shorzha, Kut and Aravus. Troop movement reported near Ishkhanasar.
XTOD: Iowa-UConn WBB is ESPN’s most-viewed basketball game … ever. And it’s ESPN’s second-biggest audience for a non-football game … ever.
XTOD: The all-new 75th anniversary edition of this timeless Ben Graham classic will release on October 22, 2024. 640 pages of Graham's original book — "leaving his original text untouched" — alongside updated commentaries from Jason Zweig to explain how the Dean of Wall Street's wisdom still applies today.
XTOD: Nice review of "Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track" by Tom Hogan https://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?id=1926
https://x.com/InvestingCanons/status/1776585067302723742
https://x.com/InvestingCanons/status/1776596421669511254
https://x.com/joyofcompoundin/status/1776588887667654827
https://x.com/lukeburgis/status/1776592533516165516
https://x.com/ATabarrok/status/1776696701627093072
https://x.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1776711173242527888
https://x.com/kejca/status/1776606972411843009
https://x.com/JohnHCochrane/status/1776758147610472515
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