A ho-hum news day. Stocks finally rose with tech names like Nvidia rebounding and yields rising. No Fedspeak and perhaps some optimism that Middle East tensions won’t spark a larger regional conflict provided a somewhat supportive backdrop for markets.
Yields await the major data of the week in the form of GDP and PCE. Ahead of today's 2Y auction we have the 2Y at 4.97% and the 10Y at 4.61%.
On the day ahead it's S&P PMI's, New Home Sales and the 2Y Treasury Auction.
XTOD: The 10-year yield was 3.78% in late December. As this story notes, it hit 4.70% last week, almost a 100 basis point rise in four months. The story asks if the 10-year yield can hit 5% as if this were a bold call. It's not. Saying the 10-year will NOT hit 5%, or the yield rise has no more than 29 basis points left, is a bold call! --- This says a lot about sentiment. It suggests that predicting the bond sell-off has no more than 29 bps left is still the safe call. However, it is "tricky" to predict yields may rise another 30 basis points. Bullishness still prevails. Only when yields rise enough that everyone dusts off Jamie Dimon's 8% prediction from two weeks ago and proclaims him Nostradamus is it over.
I think it happens when yields get above 5%. Then it is safe to be bearish. So, almost there but have some work left. https://wsj.com/economy/central-banking/path-for-10-year-u-s-treasury-yield-to-5-is-possible-but-tricky-e29be0c9?mod=latest_headlines
XTOD: america’s problems solved in one tiktok https://twitter.com/i/status/1782536475244150808
XTOD: is that Stephanie Kelton
XTOD (evidence that the tik-tok and Kelton are in action?) Today, my Administration is investing $7 billion in a new program called Solar for All that will enable over 900,000 low-income households to have solar on their rooftops for the first time. Solar for All will give folks more breathing room – and cleaner breathing room at that.
XTOD: “A DCF is like the Hubble telescope - turn it a fraction of an inch and you're in a different galaxy.” - Curtis Jensen
XTOD: Most insufferable man I matched with on Hinge was a middle-aged CRE guy. Asked him to let me know the make and model of his car so I could have a guest parking pass preemptively printed for him. (We were meeting at my place and walking to a spot in midtown for drinks.)
He says, "you'll know it when you see it."
Already annoying as that doesn't help at all. My concierge cannot print a pass with this information.
Guy proceeds to show up in a base model Porsche with vanity tags.
I cancelled the date.
XTOD: What commission-based profession has the best reputation?
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1782419740654473624
https://x.com/TikTokInvestors/status/1782536475244150808
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1782562180614778972
https://x.com/POTUS/status/1782563790778740826
https://x.com/mastersinvest/status/1782524902840443167
https://x.com/AllyTaft/status/1782381353566138572
https://x.com/morganhousel/status/1782398541631205436
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