A solid day for stocks with the S&P up 1% in regular trading as earnings season is proving solid. There was Elon optimism after the bell, as he promises more affordable vehicles and the every elusive robotaxi. On the data side, the flash PMI's showed some slowing, especially in manufacturing, while sales of new homes beat estimates. In other news the Senate passed the Ukraine funding bill that includes Tik Tok ban. We also had FTC passing a vote on a final rule banning non-competes:
"Under the FTC’s new rule, existing noncompetes for the vast majority of workers will no longer be enforceable after the rule’s effective date. Existing noncompetes for senior executives - who represent less than 0.75% of workers - can remain in force under the FTC’s final rule, but employers are banned from entering into or attempting to enforce any new noncompetes, even if they involve senior executives. Employers will be required to provide notice to workers other than senior executives who are bound by an existing noncompete that they will not be enforcing any noncompetes against them."
It will be interesting to see how this plays out and (a) whether it survives legal challenges and (b) whether it will lead to the amount of new businesses and increased pay that the FTC anticipates.
Aside from that you've got students looking for refunds from Columbia.
Today's data features Durable Goods and we'll get the 5Y Treasury note auction. The 2Y was little changed and is 4.94% and the 10Y at 4.61%
XTOD: 🚨 Excited to announce we have launched the Macro Musebot! 🚨 Powered by insights from 400+ episodes of the Macro Musings podcast, this AI is your personal guide to the world of macroeconomics, monetary policy, and all our past guests! (1/n) https://ai.macromusings.org
XTOD: I dislike Taleb in a lot of ways, but his greatest contribution to knowledge is this Medium post, a chapter from SKIN IN THE GAME, about the intransigent minority.
Explains Columbia, explains trans rights, explains every social issue we've been dealing with. https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15
XTOD: tbh sleeping in a tent on a city street seems like a pretty good life skill to practice for a humanities grad in 2024
XTOD: “This odd combination — higher stock valuations despite higher rates — has not happened in any period of Fed tightening going back to the late 1950s.”
XTOD: This is a HUGE policy change, if it’s right. President Biden previously called for extending the tax cuts below $400k — which could cost $1.5 to $3.5 trillion. Letting them expire would cost $0!!
XTOD: The best way to regulate anger is not to vent right away. It’s to calm down first.
154 studies: Deep breathing, meditation & yoga are better antidotes to aggression than yelling, punching & running. Anger management is about lowering your heart rate, not raising it. Relaxing reduces rage. http://scientificamerican.com/article/feeling-angry-chilling-out-helps-more-than-blowing-off-steam
https://x.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1782864089896694224
https://x.com/dailydirtnap/status/1782887566959689898
https://x.com/ilyasu/status/1782604161307291849
https://x.com/tomkeene/status/1782638793079599492
https://x.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1782920263316996104
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