Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Daily Economic Update: October 25, 2023


 A little stability in yields, at least relative to the moves of the last week.  Currently the 10Y is 4.86% and the 2Y is 5.08%.  Yesterday's 2Y note auction was largely uneventful and Bitcoin continues to rise on demand hopes. Just when you thought UAW was falling out of the news they waited for GM earnings announcement and then announced strikes on one of their most profitable factories.  It appears Mike Johnson will be the Speaker of the House, but we've seen how that goes. 

On the day ahead markets continue to speculate around the BoJ and their YCC band as their 10Y JGB hit a new high.  We'll get AMZN and META earnings after the bell as MSFT and GOOG shares moved opposite directions as markets weighed the growth of each companies cloud divisions following their releases yesterday.  In data it's new Home Sales and Bank of Canada decision. We'll also get the 5Y note auction

XTOD: "I'm always amazed that the market seems to think there's going to be a hard pivot here – I think it's going to be higher for longer."  @TDCowen   President Jeffrey Solomon offers his outlook for the Fed, predicting that bond yields are now "closer to the top than not."

XTOD: Jamie Dimon said the fact that central banks got financial forecasting “100% dead wrong” about 18 months ago should prompt some humility about the outlook for next year. 
He should know since JPMorgan Chase forecasts weren't exactly, you know, accurate.

XTOD: Dozens Of States Sue Meta For Sparking Youth Mental Health Crisis

XTOD: "The fallacy of ‘Term Premium’ | Is ‘Term Premium’ the lump under the rug where undesired inflation expectations are hidden?" |  

XTOD: So many people asked us about the rampant train robberies taking place in Arizona and New Mexico that we wrote an article about it.   If you're moving cargo by rail, you need to understand this new risk to your supply chain. https://www.flexport.com/blog/the-great-train-robbery-everything-we-know-so-far/

XTOD: Regional banks taking out their post SVB lows.

XTOD: New from me: Cruise withheld key footage of its car dragging an injured pedestrian 20 feet while executing a "pullover maneuver" when showing footage to DMV investigators. When the DMV found out, it suspended their license to operate driverless cars.

XTOD: NEW: The off-duty pilot who attempted to cut off a plane's engines mid-flight told an officer it was his first time using psychedelic mushrooms, per the federal complaint 
"I'm admitting to what I did. I'm not fighting any charges"

XTOD: What we consider defining moments, like promotions or a new house, matter less to life satisfaction than the accumulation of tiny moments that didn't seem to matter at the time. In the end, everyday moments matter more than big prizes. Tiny delights over big bright lights.



https://x.com/SquawkStreet/status/1716856161243213937?s=20
https://x.com/trengriffin/status/1716837808315453755?s=20
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1716880552022696218?s=20
https://x.com/rcwhalen/status/1716854044835164416?s=20
https://x.com/typesfast/status/1716842483282252172?s=20
https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1716842139571691584?s=20
https://x.com/A_W_Gordon/status/1716892781984227384?s=20
https://x.com/EvanWatsonNews/status/1716868497815580936?s=20
https://x.com/ShaneAParrish/status/1716772375969062925?s=20

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