Volatility in bonds continues with a big intraday move in yields yesterday, as the 10Y moved off the 5% level and fell 15bps. The move was largely attributed to be market reaction to tweets by Bill Ackman and a lesser extent Bill Gross (see XTODs below). Today yields are moving slightly higher with the 10Y up to 4.86% and the 2Y at 5.08%. In data it will be S&P PMI's (EU PMI's were weak this morning) and Richmond Fed Manufacturing. The Treasury will auction 2Y notes and in equities, the start of big tech earnings today with MSFT and GOOG after the close will be the highlight.
XTOD: We covered our bond short. There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates. The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests.
XTOD: Bill Ackman, once a vocal proponent for higher rates and shorting Treasuries, just covered his profitable bearish bet and stated that “the economy is slowing faster than the data suggests”. Hence this Treasury turnaround.
XTOD: This is incredible: At 9:45 AM ET today, Bill Ackman posted that he covered his bond shorts. 4 hours later, the 10-year note yield is down 15 basis points, on track for its biggest daily drop in 2 weeks. This comes nearly 2 months after he publicly took a large bond short position. Ackman said there is too much risk in the world to continue shorting bonds. He also said that the economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests. Bond markets continue to make history.
XTOD: Something's going on with NFL passing offenses. - Lowest passing TD% since 1993 - Most sacks per game since 1997 - Fewest yards per reception .... EVER??? All 33 NFL seasons with the fewest yards per reception in the history of the sport happened after Taylor Swift was born. These are just the facts okay.
XTOD: We made it through Black Monday
XTOD: “Everyone loves an early inflation. The effects at the beginning of inflation are all good. There is steepened money expansion, rising government spending, increased government budget deficits, booming stock markets, and spectacular general prosperity, all in the midst of temporarily stable prices. Everyone benefits and no one pays. That is the early part of the cycle. In the later inflation, on the other hand, the effects are all bad. The government may steadily increase the money inflation in order to stave off the latter effects, but the latter effects patiently wait. In the terminal inflation, there is faltering prosperity, tightness of money, falling stock markets, rising taxes, still larger government deficits, and still roaring money expansion, now accompanied by soaring prices and an ineffectiveness of all traditional remedies. Everyone pays and no one benefits. That is the full cycle of every inflation.” -Jens Parson
XTOD: Parents of young athletes: You're being sold a bill of goods… Early specialization…It's a fear campaign…Its a billion dollar dumpster fire saying: To become a great athlete you must: Specialize early…Train year-round…Compete often…If you don’t your child is going to miss out and fall behind ..And for the most part: It’s complete bullshit…What it really is: Early Development of sport-specific skills. Early success in sport..Little to no development of fundamental movement skills ...Poor performances later in the sport..Higher chance of injury..Higher Chance of Burnout from Sport - Early start…Early finish! It's a complete lack of understanding of how humans develop…
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