Daily Economic Update: April 3, 2025

Tariff Bomb Dropped - Now What?

Well, it happened. The long-anticipated tariff announcement is here. The summary? A 10% baseline tariff plus a sprawling list of reciprocal tariffs across 180 countries. You can find the full breakdown on major media outlets—or just check Trump’s Truth Social for the unfiltered version.

Markets weren’t thrilled. After a volatile trading session that somehow ended in the green, the tariff news hit, and as of this writing, S&P futures are down ~3.5%.

What’s the Math?

Social media was quick to notice an interesting pattern: the column listing “Tariffs Charged to the U.S.”—which includes currency manipulation and trade barriers—looks suspiciously like a simple ratio of the U.S. trade deficit with each country divided by their exports to the U.S. I haven’t verified it, but if true, it suggests these tariffs are being applied under a premise that the U.S. should have no trade deficit with any country.

Tariffs: A Congressional Comeback?

This blog won’t settle the global trade debate, but one question no one seems to be asking: Will these tariff experiments eventually push Congress to reclaim its role in setting trade policy? After all, tariffs are just taxes by another name.

Dalio’s Take on Second-Order Effects

Before the tariff announcement, Ray Dalio weighed in on tariffs (generally) - talking about not just the first order effects of tariffs but the second order and beyond.  Dalio also brings the tariff discussion back to the U.S. dollar where shares some musings on ‘exorbitant privilege’ and the strong dollar, thoughts that are worth a read.

Data? What Data?

There’s economic data today—jobless claims and ISM services—but let’s be honest, it’s all background noise. The real focus? How deep this equity selloff goes and whether Treasuries catch a flight-to-quality bid as global growth gets reappraised.

Buckle up.

XTODs:

XTOD: This guy cracked the tariff formula:@orthonormalist It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us. Yes. Really.  Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1

Deficit = 123.5  123.5/136.6 = 90%

XTOD: approaching, and surpassing, frightening level of Veep

XTOD: This has to be one of the biggest unforced economic policy errors in US history.

XTOD: Treasury Secretary Bessent tells @annmarie   the equity market selloff is quote 

“A Mag7 problem not a MAGA problem”

XTOD: 13 best  @naval quotes from newest episode with  @ChrisWillx :  ("I don't want to tell anybody how to live their life" edition)

1. “If you get 10,000 error corrections at anything, you will be an expert at it.”

2. “The people who are really extraordinarily successful didn’t sit around watching success porn, they just went and did it.”

3. “I’ll take the happy route that involves material success, thank you.”

4. “The journey isn’t just the reward, it’s the only thing there is.”

5. “Money solves money problems.”

6. “If you want to be successful, you have to be choosy about your desires.”

7. “You can create love anytime, the craving to receive it is the problem.”

8. “I think happiness is just being okay with where you are.”

9. “The easiest and best way to improve your quality of live is to observe your own mind and thoughts and be observant of yourself more objectively.”

10. “Can’t go against your gut, it’ll bite you later.”

11. “If I take myself too seriously, then I’m going to get trapped, I’m going to circumscribe myself again into a limited set of behaviors and outcomes that keep me from being free, spontaneous and happy.”

12. “If you want an automatic built-in meaning to life, have kids.”

13. “All of nature, all of society, all of capitalism, all of human endeavors are underpinned by physical violence.”

https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1907568233239949431

https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1907584344593453506

https://x.com/DavidBeckworth/status/1907556005661090134

https://x.com/FerroTV/status/1907548620984885569

https://x.com/podcastnotes/status/1906869316076888312

Daily Economic Update: April 2, 2025

Liberation Day

Liberation Day is here. At 3pm, the tariff truth drops—assuming we get one. Until then, the market is in a holding pattern.

Markets are not focused on much else and the odds we get full clarity on tariffs today seem slim to none.  In the background the consumer seems to be holding up relatively well. Despite all of the headlines of government related layoffs, there has been little in the way of data indicating that it is having an impact on the overall economic picture - at least not to date. Just look at yesterday’s JOLTS data, the quits rate, hiring rate and layoff rate were unchanged.  However over in manufacturing land the ISM data showed a worsening employment picture, muddied by tariffs.

Sit Down, Be Humble

While we wait, a reminder: this blog exists to cut through the noise, question consensus, and keep you thinking beyond the headlines. If you find it valuable, share it.

[Be Humble] About Tariffs

If you need a refresher on the “t” word, I’ve written my share - still far less than others - go back to my UFC Fight & Thucydides Trap analogy from a month ago for a primer.  Or you can go back two months and ponder who actually bears the tariff tax and how exchange rates might respond. 

What Act Are We In Again?

The point is that we’ve all read a lot about tariffs and I don’t know that we’re really any smarter for it.  Nonetheless, perhaps ‘Liberation Day’ marks the beginning of the beginning of the end, or to quote Winston Churchill, “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

If it’s the end of the beginning, what Act of this drama are we in?  This is a transformation, not a conclusion. The real impact of tariffs—beyond today’s noise—will play out over time.

The long-term consequences, further negotiations, and potential shifts in policy will determine the true "end" of this tariff narrative, which is still far from being written.

What Are You Doing For Today’s Holiday?

I don’t know about you, but I’m having pancakes with maple syrup and canadian bacon for breakfast, moving onto burritos and margaritas with tariffed tequila for lunch and finishing out the tariff press conference with a bottle of tariffed champagne.

I might as well live large now before my 401K turns into a 201K.  We head into the Liberation Day announcements with the S&P 500 Index at 5,633 and the ‘growth terrified’ 2Y and 10Y treasuries at 3.88% and 4.16% respectively.  

The yield curve is still inverted between the 3-month and 10-year—something we covered in February. Back then, it shared the headlines with Mary Kate Cornet. She’s back, suing ESPN. And the recession signal? Still flashing.

Anyway, it’s all about the tariffs for now.

XTODs

XTOD: Torpedo bats? Back in my day, players did anabolic steroids, like men.

XTOD: The U.S. stock market typically declines by:  10% every other year

30% every 4-5 years  50%+ once a generation  Invest accordingly.

XTOD: "Smartphone theory of everything" explains many trends: 

• worsening mental health, esp women

• rise of addictive gambling behavior, esp men

• cognitive decline

• lower coupling rates, so lower fertility

• new information bubbles and global rise in populism

XTOD: There will never have been a transformation of a Country like the transformation that is happening, for all to see, in the United States of America. Companies are pouring into our Country at levels never seen before, with Jobs (and Money!) to follow. It is a beautiful thing to watch!

XTOD: A comment on my new essay, "Everything is Fast", that I think is worth sharing https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GnPZTeJXMAA8Kum?format=jpg&name=900x900

https://x.com/troptoberfest/status/1906790496766218675

https://x.com/dollarsanddata/status/1907047922136412582

https://x.com/arpitrage/status/1907075166535852224

https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1906780813204836475

https://x.com/lukeburgis/status/1906106020759269409

Daily Economic Update: April 1, 2025

Powell Rangers & Tariffed Tequilas: March 2025 Market Madness

Alright, let's dive into the financial circus that was March 2025.  March kicked off with markets still reeling from February’s “growth scare.” The S&P 500 wobbled, and investors squinted at economic data like it held the meaning of life—or at least their 401(k) balance.

The “t” word, tariffs! They were still the economic equivalent of that annoying song you can't get out of your head. Remember the pause on Mexico? Me either, but that felt like a brief moment of sanity in a world increasingly fueled by tariffed tequila dreams. But the talk of "reciprocal" tariffs kept the markets on edge, wondering which beloved consumer good would be next in line for a price hike.

Inflation remained the uninvited guest at every economic party, with Atlanta Fed President Bostic pretty much telling everyone the Fed's 2% target was a pipe dream for the foreseeable future. Rate cut hopes for 2025 were fading faster than my spring break suntan. The Fed, those Powell Rangers, were still in data-dependent mode, which, as usual, meant they were just as confused as the rest of us.

Consumer confidence took a nosedive, hitting a 12-year low and flashing recession warning signs, though some of us were probably just feeling the effects of tariffed tequila. The "Expectations Index" was well below that ominous threshold of 80. So, consumers weren't exactly brimming with optimism.

AI continued to be the shiny object distracting everyone. The CoreWeave IPO hiccup raised some eyebrows about the sustainability of the AI boom, even with $NVDA potentially playing the role of knight in shining armor. Was AI the answer to stagflation, or just another overhyped tech bubble waiting to burst? The jury was still out, and probably still trying to figure out what AI actually is.

Speaking of bubbles, the private credit market was getting some scrutiny too. Despite the rapid growth and attractive expected returns compared to equities, the inherent risks weren't being ignored entirely.

Market performance in March saw the S&P 500 attempting to recover from earlier dips, but volatility was the name of the game. The Magnificent 7 were showing some cracks. Bonds were reacting to inflation data and Fed speak, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields doing their usual dance.

Some random happenings that caught the eye:

• The rise of burrito-backed loans – yes, you read that right. Consumers taking out loans to fuel their DoorDash habits via Klarna. Peak 2025 finance? Maybe.

• ARK Invest apparently lost more money than any other fund manager in the past decade. Ouch. 

• The Berkshire Hathaway meeting was apparently going to cost you a cool $5,680 a night for the Hilton across the street. Start saving those burrito loan proceeds!

Investor attention was highlighted as a crucial driver of how markets react to macroeconomic news. So, all those doomscrolling hours might actually be market research? Doubtful.

Overall, March felt like a continuation of the uncertainty that had been brewing. Tariffs, inflation worries, and the ever-present AI hype kept the markets guessing. Consumer confidence was shaky, and the economic outlook was about as clear as mud after a few too many tariffed tequilas. Nobody really knew what was going on, but that, as always, didn't stop anyone from having a strong opinion. And as Mark Twain wisely said, "It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so". 

So, take all of this with a healthy dose of "I don't know" and maybe go watch some baseball. It's probably less confusing than the markets right now - despite the early season controversy over torpedo bats.

Some March Learnings:

• Beware of first-order thinking and understand second-order effects - be careful reaching quick and certain conclusions in a world mired in uncertainty and complexity

• Market narratives drive pricing, but can be fleeting - the line between rational optimism and collective delusion can be blurry

• Question conventional wisdom and “what’s priced in” - what’s thought to be priced in isn’t always understood

• Recognize the importance of long-term perspectives and patience - Zoom out. Your investment horizon is longer than a news cycle. Most of this is just noise—unless, of course, it’s about your tequila budget

Because You Already Forgot January and February

Missed the first two months of the year? Don’t worry, the themes haven't changed: AI savior complex, tariff tantrums, and inflation drama. 

The year kicked off with everyone and their mother trying to figure out if AI was going to save us all or just lead to sentient paperclips. DeepSeek threw a wrench in the GPU-guzzling narrative, making everyone question if $NVDA was the next Pets.com

Trump was back and so were his beloved tariffs. Every other headline was a new tariff threat from champagne to tequila, making happy hour increasingly unhappy. 

The Mag-7 have shown cracks, bonds have been all over the place reacting to inflation data, Fedspeak, tariffs and the overall uncertainty. Gold has hit new record highs - e tu Bitcoin?

The first quarter of 2025: a swirling vortex of AI hype, tariff tantrums, inflation anxieties, and enough market volatility to give you whiplash. Nobody really knew what was going on, but that didn't stop the financial news cycle from spinning wildly. As always, blame Canada.

So what awaits us in April and beyond?

Hold on, let me grab my crystal ball. Obviously eyes are glued to April 2nd ‘Liberation Day’, but the correct answer when asked about the financial future is “I Don’t Know.”  As for advice, what we covered a couple of weeks ago might be the best I can muster.

We start April with the S&P at 5,612, the 2Y treasury yield down at 3.90%  and the 10Y yield at 4.21%. In due time, we’ll see if the April narratives will be different from those of March.

XTODs

Will return tomorrow - not an April Fools.

Daily Economic Update: March 31, 2025

 The ‘93-’01 Boom: When Surpluses and Compact Disc Were a Thing

Friday gave us more stagflation vibes, with UofM inflation expectations hitting their highest since ‘93 at 4.1% and PCE sitting at 2.8%—while growth seems fleeting (just check the Atlanta Fed GDPNow). But as a counterpoint, I’ll just throw it out there: 1993 was a solid year for rap and rock music, and, call me crazy, but the economy from ‘93 to ‘01 wasn’t half bad either.

Let’s take a quick trip back. The U.S. economy in that period? Absolutely cooking. GDP growth averaged around 4% annually, job creation was strong, and by the end of the decade, unemployment had fallen to a near 30-year low of 3.9%. Productivity surged, fueled by the tech boom—back when dot-com wasn’t just a punchline.

Inflation? Tame. The Fed, under Alan Greenspan, mostly kept CPI in check, with inflation averaging just above 2%. Meanwhile, the federal budget actually ran a surplus from 1998 to 2001—yes, a surplus, a concept so foreign today it might as well be a VHS tape. This was helped by a mix of spending restraint and tax hikes under Clinton, plus a flood of capital gains revenue from the stock market euphoria.

Speaking of markets, the S&P 500 went on an absolute tear, gaining over 400% from 1993 to its peak in early 2000. Then, of course, came the dot-com bust, reminding us all that stocks don’t just go up forever.

So yeah, the ‘90s economy had its share of good times—before the hangover of 2001 hit with the recession, tech crash, and all.

The lesson might be something we talked about early in the year, I call it the “trees don’t grow to the sky” narrative, one that deals with cycles and mean reversion.  In the case of the ‘90s economy,  the stability and complacency that resulted from numerous favorable conditions coming together over that period may have sowed the seeds for future problems as investors assumed these conditions would go on indefinitely and given little attention to the underlying imbalances that were building up.

Speaking of Nostalgia: The Fed Dusts Off 'Transitory'

The Fed has been so nostalgic for the word “transitory” that they’ve revived it. We’ve reached peak nostalgia—now ‘transitory’ and ‘tariffs’ are like a toxic couple that just won’t break up.  For example -  Don’t worry the impact of tariffs will be transitory.  

Second-Order Thinking: The Market’s Favorite Trick Play

If I told you that inflation data all pointed to inflation being stronger than expected and asked you to guess the direction of bond yields, my assumption is you would say yields would move higher.  But despite higher inflation expectations and sticky inflation, yields fell. Of course you’ll say something like, but growth concerns and stock market volatility led to a “flight to quality”.

The lesson? Second order effects - we talked about this as the separator of good and bad economist.  We don’t always understand “what’s priced in”, “positioning”, and overall second order effects and beyond. The most poignant example of second order effects that I can recall was during the start of Covid in 2020, when yields on the presumptive safe-haven assets, U.S. treasuries unexpectedly rose during March 2020.  If you focused solely on first-order effects of a global pandemic, the sale of risky assets like equities and the purchase of U.S. Treasuries made perfect sense and indeed it's what happened from February until March 9, 2020.  From there however second-order effects began to dominate. It turned out investors needed to sell Treasuries to raise cash for all kinds of reasons - meeting investor redemptions, meeting margin calls, to factors impacting foreign holders of treasuries. 

I call to mind the Treasury market dynamics of 2020 because of the recent media attention around a paper arguing that the Fed should set up a program to close out hedge funds treasury basis trades in times of market stress.   

More Lessons: Twain, Housel, and the Art of Being Wrong

Perhaps the real lesson is immortalized in the words of Mark Twain: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.“  

We’re tempted to draw quick and certain conclusions from data or market narratives - but as Morgan Housel reminds us, “if you’ve relied on data and logic alone to make sense of the economy, you’d have been confused for a hundred straight years.”

You don’t have to wait 100 years to be confused, I’m sure this week will suffice.

The Week Ahead: Can Liberation Day Be A Holiday Yet?

We enter the week with the S&P 500 index at 5,580.  The 2Y treasury yield at 3.91% and the 10Y at 4.25%.  

Tariffs and Jobs will be the focus.

Today: take a breather and finish month end/ quarter end

Tue: ISM mfg, JOLTs and April Fools Day

Wed: Liberation Day

Thur: Jobless Claims, ISM services

Fri: Jobs Day in ‘merica, Powell speech

XTODs

XTOD: New: Trump privately pushing aides to go bigger on tariffs as April 2 “Liberation Day” nears  President revived idea of flat universal tariff single rate on most imports  Feels 1st term advisers went too small & soft with exemptions  Bannon pitches “Liberation Day” as federal holiday next year

XTOD: Shocking report by @andrewtlevin at @mercatus  showing that growth in Fed salaries massively outpaced other sectors. In my own experience at the New York Fed I affirm that there the organization is massively overstaffed and overpaid.

XTOD: Probably no better formula than “high passion and low status” for an area to go work in and create things  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GnOtm__WQAAzrZa?format=jpg&name=900x900

XTOD: Reminder: If you don’t prioritize your life, someone else will.

https://x.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1905947983062904832

https://x.com/FedGuy12/status/1905637468746977400

https://x.com/patrick_oshag/status/1906057956988219392

https://x.com/GregoryMcKeown/status/1906058792795865343

Daily Economic Update: March 28, 2025

Wop Pan Ghilbi Style Will Have To Hold You Over To Liberation Day

I hope your Friday is filled with ChatGPT generated Ghibli memes - the whole Ghibli thing was news to me until this week.  Too bad ChatGPT won’t spit out Ghibli-style Ben Bernanke images for me - when it comes to images of central bankers, your favorite AI’s are 100 excuses, zero magic - in other words AI is exactly the same as central banking.

I guess we’ll have to settle for Ghibli-style memes to numb us from stock losses, as the S&P 500 index was down, closing at 5,693. 

TikTok Diplomacy: The Bargaining Chip You Didn’t Know You Needed

Speaking of Liberation Day, headlines indicate that Chinese tariffs may be reduced if the Chinese are willing to toss TikTok our way. Parent’s get it, Xi’s over there like, “No tantrums, you can have TikTok on your phone.”  My kid’s screen time is now a trade war chip. Genius or madness?

“Amistics” and the Tech Choices That Shape Our Future

Your reflection for the weekend is the term “amistics”, it was coined by Neal Stephenson in his book Seven Eves.  Never heard of the term, that’s ok, that’s why I’m here - "Amistics" is derived from the word "Amish," and it refers to the intentional selection of technologies a society chooses to adopt or reject.  Personally, I’m not sure that we, as a society, have given enough thought about what technologies we allow to proliferate, especially when it comes to social media.

Maybe the Amish were onto something - Feel free to find a few articles on the concept.

The Data - Is Anyone Paying Attention?

Until Liberation Day we should focus on the data. The final read of 4Q GDP was 2.4%, but since it’s backwards looking, no one cares. Jobless claims which are a coincident indicator remained benign at +224K.  All of the data remains secondary to the “t” word and the latest on AI.

Feels Like The First Time - Foreigner & The 7Y

Over in bond land, the notorious 7Y point on the curve had a pretty dismal showing with a 0.4bp tail printing 4.233%, weak bid to cover, and foreigners failed to show up for it.  Personally I don’t put a lot of stock in reading the tea leaves based on the 7Y auction, no matter the situation it just always feels like a crapshoot, but perhaps rising yields in places like Japan and in the EU are such that foreigners don’t need to chase yield in the U.S.

Will all the talk of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s focus on the 10Y yield has gone the wrong direction and is now 4.37%.  The 2Y hovers right around 4.00%

The PCE Report: Is It Really the Fed’s Favorite? Or Is Baseball Season the Real Inflation Gauge?

Speaking of yields, we’ll see how they move after the release of today’s PCE report - the Fed’s favorite.

You could pay attention to PCE or you could just live in the real world and see how much it costs to buy tickets to a baseball game and then a meal and beer once you’re there, that’s an inflation gauge worth monitoring.  

March Madness, Baseball, and Real World Inflation: Why Are You Reading This?

It’s Friday—March Madness, baseball’s here. Why fret AI capex, Coreweave IPOs, private credit bubbles, or tariffed tequila?

XTODs:

XTOD: AI and private assets have been these two mega-booms powering at least the financial economy if not the real economy forward, and CoreWeave not having a bid and $NVDA needing to step in to save the IPO raises questions about both.

XTOD: In case you need a room for Berkshire $BRK meeting.  The Hilton across the street is only $5,680 per night.

XTOD: Things you say when your credit business is 6x the size of your PE business: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GnDkKUNWwAA1hhX?format=jpg&name=900x900

XTOD: "No fund-management firm has lost as much money in the past decade as ARK Invest, $ARKK," per MW.

XTOD: Financial markets react to macroeconomic news, but does investor attention shape how they react? I study this question by analyzing market responses to macroeconomic news announcements (e.g. CPI and Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) announcements). 3/16  In summary: Investor attention is a crucial—and previously overlooked—driver of how macroeconomic news is priced in financial markets. I have more details and results in the paper. So please take a look! Also, feel free to reach out if you have comments and suggestions!  16/16

XTOD: "I saw that it was the artificial needs of life that made me a slave; the real needs of life were few." - William Dawson

https://x.com/conorsen/status/1905255220705210379

https://x.com/eriksen_tim/status/1904988787127758975

https://x.com/junkbondinvest/status/1905273514359177293

https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1905202385942950342

https://x.com/KronerNiklas/status/1905006224749560002

https://x.com/morganhousel/status/1905270424814113163

Daily Economic Update: March 27, 2025

Can AI repo a car?

I was going to write more, but I’ve been busy canceling my data center leases and watching my car get repossessed—at least a repo’d car can’t be tariffed… right?

Auto tariffs strike again

Shocker: Auto tariff news rattled markets, sending the S&P down over 1% to 5,712. 2025’s financial news cycle? SSDD—just swap in 'tariffs’.  

…but cars save durable goods data - and still no one cares

Hard data matters—who am I kidding? But they keep releasing it, so I’ll keep writing. Durable goods orders surprised to the upside (+0.9% vs. -1.0% expected), led by vehicles and auto parts. Perfect timing for Trump to float new auto tariffs.

GDPNow: Tariffs Even Mess With Our Models

Following the recent data releases, the ATL Fed GDPNow was updated to 0.2%, of course after having to adjust for unusual gold flows that were impacted by tariffs.

The Fed: Data Dependent or Just Guessing - You Already Know the Answer
The Fed, ever 'data-dependent,' surely knows what to do. Right? Oh wait, they’re just guessing like the rest of us. Kashkari admits: "Some of the policy uncertainty that you all talked about in your word cloud is complicating our analysis of the economy." Musalem chimes in: "I would be wary of assuming that the impact of tariff increases on inflation will be entirely temporary..." Translation: The Fed’s crystal ball is as foggy as ever.

I always knew Jason Zweig’s definition of “Central Bank” in the Devil’s Financial Dictionary was correct.

Central Bankers Have A Retirement Plan - PIMCO

But I don’t feel bad for any of the Central Bankers, after all once their time in public service is up they can always go to PIMCO - just ask Janet Yellen.

Speaking of bonds, the 5Y Treasury auction tailed—despite strong foreign demand. The 2Y closed at 4.03%, while the 10Y yield climbed to 4.36%.

The Day Ahead - More Data to Ignore

The day ahead will feature jobless claims, another read of 4Q GDP and a 7Y treasury note auction. More data for the Fed to ignore.

Waiting for Liberation Day.

XTOD: BREAKING: President Donald Trump announced plans for long-promised tariffs of up to 25% on automotive imports, widening the global trade war he kicked off upon regaining the White House.

XTOD: I'm DEEPLY suspicious of why PE suddenly wants to get their sticky fingers on 401k cash. I suspect their real motivating driver is that in the new world of structurally higher rates, they've run out of buyers and need Main Street liquidity to bail them out of their investments.

XTOD: People are now referring to Pete Hegseth as “WhiskiLeaks” and I’m kinda pissed that I didn’t think of it first.

XTOD: On this episode of "Crashout of the Week" Balyasny Asset Management poached one of Citadel's top Healthcare guys with a $50 Million pay package.  Citadel was fuming, so instead of the usual "No Comment" to Bloomberg they just roasted his drawdown.  Humiliating.  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gm-SmeRWYAEwM8o?format=jpg&name=900x900

XTOD: Some of you are too young to remember LIBOR and it shows

XTOD: >be me  >grind for a decade trying to help make superintelligence to cure cancer or whatever >mostly no one cares for first 7.5 years, then for 2.5 years everyone hates you for everything >wake up one day to hundreds of messages: "look i made you into a twink ghibli style haha"

XTOD: To the game I’ve been obsessed with since I was a little kid, it’s been a hell of a ride! I’m so grateful to have played as long as I have and to have such an amazing support system throughout my career. I’m excited for the next chapter, the first one was incredible!  https://x.com/KJS_4/status/1904174938363461997

https://x.com/Reuters/status/1905009270174683272

https://x.com/JulianMI2/status/1904639131289813319

https://x.com/BraddrofliT/status/1904582952513921091

https://x.com/blondesnmoney/status/1904902642607755525

https://x.com/eastvillageguy/status/1904522926486909133

https://x.com/sama/status/1904921537884676398

https://x.com/KJS_4/status/1904174938363461997