Can AI repo a car?
I was going to write more, but I’ve been busy canceling my data center leases and watching my car get repossessed—at least a repo’d car can’t be tariffed… right?
Auto tariffs strike again
Shocker: Auto tariff news rattled markets, sending the S&P down over 1% to 5,712. 2025’s financial news cycle? SSDD—just swap in 'tariffs’.
…but cars save durable goods data - and still no one cares
Hard data matters—who am I kidding? But they keep releasing it, so I’ll keep writing. Durable goods orders surprised to the upside (+0.9% vs. -1.0% expected), led by vehicles and auto parts. Perfect timing for Trump to float new auto tariffs.
GDPNow: Tariffs Even Mess With Our Models
Following the recent data releases, the ATL Fed GDPNow was updated to 0.2%, of course after having to adjust for unusual gold flows that were impacted by tariffs.
The Fed: Data Dependent or Just Guessing - You Already Know the Answer
The Fed, ever 'data-dependent,' surely knows what to do. Right? Oh wait, they’re just guessing like the rest of us. Kashkari admits: "Some of the policy uncertainty that you all talked about in your word cloud is complicating our analysis of the economy." Musalem chimes in: "I would be wary of assuming that the impact of tariff increases on inflation will be entirely temporary..." Translation: The Fed’s crystal ball is as foggy as ever.
I always knew Jason Zweig’s definition of “Central Bank” in the Devil’s Financial Dictionary was correct.
Central Bankers Have A Retirement Plan - PIMCO
But I don’t feel bad for any of the Central Bankers, after all once their time in public service is up they can always go to PIMCO - just ask Janet Yellen.
Speaking of bonds, the 5Y Treasury auction tailed—despite strong foreign demand. The 2Y closed at 4.03%, while the 10Y yield climbed to 4.36%.
The Day Ahead - More Data to Ignore
The day ahead will feature jobless claims, another read of 4Q GDP and a 7Y treasury note auction. More data for the Fed to ignore.
Waiting for Liberation Day.
XTOD: BREAKING: President Donald Trump announced plans for long-promised tariffs of up to 25% on automotive imports, widening the global trade war he kicked off upon regaining the White House.
XTOD: I'm DEEPLY suspicious of why PE suddenly wants to get their sticky fingers on 401k cash. I suspect their real motivating driver is that in the new world of structurally higher rates, they've run out of buyers and need Main Street liquidity to bail them out of their investments.
XTOD: People are now referring to Pete Hegseth as “WhiskiLeaks” and I’m kinda pissed that I didn’t think of it first.
XTOD: On this episode of "Crashout of the Week" Balyasny Asset Management poached one of Citadel's top Healthcare guys with a $50 Million pay package. Citadel was fuming, so instead of the usual "No Comment" to Bloomberg they just roasted his drawdown. Humiliating. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gm-SmeRWYAEwM8o?format=jpg&name=900x900
XTOD: Some of you are too young to remember LIBOR and it shows
XTOD: >be me >grind for a decade trying to help make superintelligence to cure cancer or whatever >mostly no one cares for first 7.5 years, then for 2.5 years everyone hates you for everything >wake up one day to hundreds of messages: "look i made you into a twink ghibli style haha"
XTOD: To the game I’ve been obsessed with since I was a little kid, it’s been a hell of a ride! I’m so grateful to have played as long as I have and to have such an amazing support system throughout my career. I’m excited for the next chapter, the first one was incredible! https://x.com/KJS_4/status/1904174938363461997
https://x.com/Reuters/status/1905009270174683272
https://x.com/JulianMI2/status/1904639131289813319
https://x.com/BraddrofliT/status/1904582952513921091
https://x.com/blondesnmoney/status/1904902642607755525
https://x.com/eastvillageguy/status/1904522926486909133
https://x.com/sama/status/1904921537884676398
https://x.com/KJS_4/status/1904174938363461997
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