I hope your Friday is filled with ChatGPT generated Ghibli memes - the whole Ghibli thing was news to me until this week. Too bad ChatGPT won’t spit out Ghibli-style Ben Bernanke images for me - when it comes to images of central bankers, your favorite AI’s are 100 excuses, zero magic - in other words AI is exactly the same as central banking.
I guess we’ll have to settle for Ghibli-style memes to numb us from stock losses, as the S&P 500 index was down, closing at 5,693.
TikTok Diplomacy: The Bargaining Chip You Didn’t Know You Needed
Speaking of Liberation Day, headlines indicate that Chinese tariffs may be reduced if the Chinese are willing to toss TikTok our way. Parent’s get it, Xi’s over there like, “No tantrums, you can have TikTok on your phone.” My kid’s screen time is now a trade war chip. Genius or madness?
“Amistics” and the Tech Choices That Shape Our Future
Your reflection for the weekend is the term “amistics”, it was coined by Neal Stephenson in his book Seven Eves. Never heard of the term, that’s ok, that’s why I’m here - "Amistics" is derived from the word "Amish," and it refers to the intentional selection of technologies a society chooses to adopt or reject. Personally, I’m not sure that we, as a society, have given enough thought about what technologies we allow to proliferate, especially when it comes to social media.
Maybe the Amish were onto something - Feel free to find a few articles on the concept.
The Data - Is Anyone Paying Attention?
Until Liberation Day we should focus on the data. The final read of 4Q GDP was 2.4%, but since it’s backwards looking, no one cares. Jobless claims which are a coincident indicator remained benign at +224K. All of the data remains secondary to the “t” word and the latest on AI.
Feels Like The First Time - Foreigner & The 7Y
Over in bond land, the notorious 7Y point on the curve had a pretty dismal showing with a 0.4bp tail printing 4.233%, weak bid to cover, and foreigners failed to show up for it. Personally I don’t put a lot of stock in reading the tea leaves based on the 7Y auction, no matter the situation it just always feels like a crapshoot, but perhaps rising yields in places like Japan and in the EU are such that foreigners don’t need to chase yield in the U.S.
Will all the talk of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s focus on the 10Y yield has gone the wrong direction and is now 4.37%. The 2Y hovers right around 4.00%
The PCE Report: Is It Really the Fed’s Favorite? Or Is Baseball Season the Real Inflation Gauge?
Speaking of yields, we’ll see how they move after the release of today’s PCE report - the Fed’s favorite.
You could pay attention to PCE or you could just live in the real world and see how much it costs to buy tickets to a baseball game and then a meal and beer once you’re there, that’s an inflation gauge worth monitoring.
March Madness, Baseball, and Real World Inflation: Why Are You Reading This?
It’s Friday—March Madness, baseball’s here. Why fret AI capex, Coreweave IPOs, private credit bubbles, or tariffed tequila?
XTODs:
XTOD: AI and private assets have been these two mega-booms powering at least the financial economy if not the real economy forward, and CoreWeave not having a bid and $NVDA needing to step in to save the IPO raises questions about both.
XTOD: In case you need a room for Berkshire $BRK meeting. The Hilton across the street is only $5,680 per night.
XTOD: Things you say when your credit business is 6x the size of your PE business: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GnDkKUNWwAA1hhX?format=jpg&name=900x900
XTOD: "No fund-management firm has lost as much money in the past decade as ARK Invest, $ARKK," per MW.
XTOD: Financial markets react to macroeconomic news, but does investor attention shape how they react? I study this question by analyzing market responses to macroeconomic news announcements (e.g. CPI and Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) announcements). 3/16 In summary: Investor attention is a crucial—and previously overlooked—driver of how macroeconomic news is priced in financial markets. I have more details and results in the paper. So please take a look! Also, feel free to reach out if you have comments and suggestions! 16/16
XTOD: "I saw that it was the artificial needs of life that made me a slave; the real needs of life were few." - William Dawson
https://x.com/conorsen/status/1905255220705210379
https://x.com/eriksen_tim/status/1904988787127758975
https://x.com/junkbondinvest/status/1905273514359177293
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1905202385942950342
https://x.com/KronerNiklas/status/1905006224749560002
https://x.com/morganhousel/status/1905270424814113163
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