Daily Economic Update: May 21, 2024

Is Morgan Stanely's Mike Wilson switching from market bear to bull a sign of the top or should we just give the guy some credit for being able to change views?  After all, "“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?” ― John Maynard Keynes

What do people do when there is no inflation, employment or growth data to obsess over?  I guess they listen to Dimon express pessimism despite his stock price being up pretty massively the last 2 years or they catch up on Matt Levine's writing about Red Lobster's BKO, or they hear Loretta Mester and Bostic imply higher for longer.

Tuesday's is another light day for economic data, so you'll have to read about copper, gold, shrimp, cybersecurity, whoever announces something involving AI (see AI PC's), wars, hear the same Fedspeak, etc.

XTOD: Jamie Dimon: "We do know the consumers are running out of excess money.  Small businesses are running out of excess money. We don't know when it's going to end, but it looks like sometimes early next year..."

XTOD: A record 55% of fund managers surveyed this month by Bank of America say global fiscal policy is too stimulative. Easier monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy could be positive for US 30-year Treasuries: BofA's Michael Hartnett

XTOD: Details from Red Lobster’s bankruptcy filing are wild and so much mismanagement:

▫️$1B in debt, $30m in cash   ▫️Previous PE owner sold land and leased it back to Red Lobster at “above market rates” ▫️$20 Endless Shrimp cost it $11m but the interesting part is that one of the chain’s owners is Thai seafood firm Thai Union (which also owns Chicken By The Sea) and it may have used Endless shrimp to dump its own shrimp supply through the 578 restaurants in North America  - Thai Union became the only Red Lobster shrimp vendor, overcharging for shrimp and skipping quality reviews (Thai Union has written off its $500m+ investment) ▫️Red Lobster has had 5 CEO in the last 5 years (!!!)

▫️Sales down 30% since 2019

XTOD: BofA: The bar for hikes is high, but cuts are still a way off... Also, we reject the "stagflation" narrative that has resurfaced recently. The consumer spending outlook is solid.

XTOD (If you want a long thread on shipping...I don't): Global containerized ocean freight prices are surging to levels not seen since the pandemic supply chain crunch. Some key trade lane rates are up 140% since mid-December and increasing by the week. What’s happening, why, and what it means for businesses needing products moved? 

XTOD: The fact that inflation is mostly in services means that these disruptions probably haven't added to inflation yet. Which is why they're so worrying -- it means a supply shock is coming and hasn't been felt yet.

XTOD: What is the cost of inaction? What is your status quo costing you, and how can you make the pain painful enough to drive you forward?

XTOD: You just have to be willing to look like an idiot while you figure it out.

Because once you figure it out, everyone else looks like an idiot for doubting you.

Daily Economic Update: May 20, 2024

Are my daily economic updates best read from the bottom up?  

Friday featured the Chinese property market bailout. It's been a good month for equities.  The week ahead is light on economic data so Fedspeak and the Minutes of the FOMC meeting will likely be the highlights as will Nvidia earnings.

Mentioned in Friday's post, the recent Blanchard and Bernanke paper on the last mile of inflation seemed to advocate a very Phillip's Curve dominate mentality, that unemployment will have to rise before inflation can return to target.  I thought this post from NGDP Targeting proponent Marcus Nunes, citing comments from economist George Selgin, laid out some interesting thoughts in retort to Blanchard and Bernanke.  You be the judge of the merits of the arguments.

4.83% on 2s and 4.42% on 10s is where we start the week in fixed income. 

On the week ahead:

Monday & Tuesday: Fedspeak

Wednesday: Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes

Thursday:  Jobless Claims, flash PMI's, New home sales

Friday: Durable Goods, consumer sentiment and Waller

XTOD: 1. Tweet triggered by some of the discussion following the publication of my new paper with Ben Bernanke. To clarify an important point. Finding that pre-pandemic era inflation was mostly due to relative price movements, especially the relative price of commodities, and that the labor market played a limited role, does not settle the issue of the role of aggregate demand and monetary policy in generating the inflation.  2. It may well be that part of the increase in commodity prices reflected higher world demand for commodities, triggered in part by lose monetary and fiscal policy, in particular but not only US fiscal policy. 3. Indeed, if one believes that individual commodity prices reflect a common aggregate demand component together with largely commodity specific supply shocks, one can use a principal component analysis to extract this common aggregate demand component. We did this in Bernanke Blanchard 2023. https://shorturl.at/s9IGs , Figure 5.  The conclusion that it indeed played an important role, at least until the end of 2022.

XTOD: GOLDMAN'S PASQUARIELLO: ".. a handful of the biggest money managers I know have recently made strong arguments for ongoing durability in the US economy.  if there’s a common thread across them, it’s the momentum behind spending on AI, infrastructure, onshoring and defense.  I agree with the broad thesis and will register that GS is calling for Q2 GDP growth of 3.2%, while the 

@AtlantaFed  is predicting 3.6% .. it stands in contrast to the ongoing pessimism I see in the press and hear on the street (specifically regarding the consumer, which I don’t agree with)."

XTOD: 7/7  When the Fed starts cutting rates at an all-time high, the stock market is signaling that the Fed is not restrictive and/or inflation is not a problem. If the market thought the Fed was restrictive and/or inflation was a problem, it would not be at a new high. So, when easier money comes, stocks boom.  But when stocks are not at an all-time high, the market signals a problem. Easy money is either not a fix or contributes to that problem, like spurring inflation. In this case, stocks struggle to break even.  Finally, if the Fed cuts a year before a recession, the signs of a recession were most likely evident, like an inverted yield curve in 2019, crashing housing prices in 2007, or the tech stocks deflating in 2001.   In this case, the Fed cut attempts to reverse this trend (read: panicking to stop the recession), and it is unsuccessful.   Conclusion  The problem with thinking rate cuts would produce lower spending is rooted in the belief that rate cuts are like candy raining down from the sky. Rate cuts only produce pleasure and never pain. So, cut rates, watch inflation fall, and stocks can boom.  It is not that simple. If markets do not believe interest rates are a problem, cutting them could produce an adverse outcome. In this case, stocks might boom and supercharge inflation via a demand-driven wealth effect. Right now, the markets do not yet see inflation as completely stamped out. Cutting rates could spur fears of more inflation and drive interest rates higher.

XTOD: It takes a special kind of elite intelligentsia to suggest that rate cuts would ease inflation. 

An out-of-control externally funded fiscal deficit drove inflation skyward, inflation is now becoming embedded in expectations, and the “contrarian” position is that the central bank should be dovish to — tame inflation.  Spiking interest payments that jack the Gini coefficient and raise inequality because the 0.1% collect rates while peasants pay them is not inflation. It’s Brazilification.  You know how I have mentioned over and over on recent podcasts that the US asset mgmt industry has absolutely zero knowledge or concept of EM-ification and what this means for assets? Consider this clip Exhibit A. 

Behold your financial leaders in action, ladies and gentlemen….the CIO of fixed income at the world’s largest asset manager. FIXED INCOME! 

Rieder has zero concept what he is signing up for. If he is indeed representative of intelligent financial leadership in America, I know *exactly* what to do with all this, and I’m here for it.

XTOD: "Margin of safety—you can also call it room for error or redundancy—is the only effective way to safely navigate a world that is governed by odds, not certainties. And almost everything related to money exists in that kind of world."  — Morgan Housel

XTOD: There are 4 types of wealth: 

1. Financial wealth (money)

2. Social wealth (status)

3. Time wealth (freedom)

4. Physical wealth (health)

Be wary of jobs that lure you in with 1 and 2, but rob you of 3 and 4.

XTOD: “Sometimes when I reflect on all the beer I drink, I feel ashamed. Then I look into the glass and think about the workers in the brewery & all of their hopes and dreams. If I didn't drink this beer, they might be out of work and their dreams would be shattered"

Babe Ruth

Daily Economic Update: May 17, 2024

Dow ~40K, risk assets doing well, people apparently ordering $1,000 Beef Cases in Vegas nightclubs, all against a backdrop where Fed officials stress higher for longer and as some people worry about the consumer.  Macro is hard.  

"There are better things to be doing than watching the ticker all day, swinging from bull to bear, obsessing over stuff no ne will remember in five years.  Lester Freeman said it best on The Wire: "A life, Jimmy, you know what that is? It's what happens while you're waiting for moments that never come." - Joshua Brown (Ritholtz Wealth Management)

Speaking of The Wire, remember that last October I started every post with a quote from The Wire?  Those quotes were probably contain more wisdom and value than any commentary on the most recent CPI data. 

In data, which data didn't seem to matter, jobless claims were low and perhaps under-looked was the rise in import prices which seems weird given dollar strength, but I didn't investigate.  Away from the data in Fedspeak Barkin said it will take more time for inflation to come back to target and Mester echoed much of the same citing the fact that the economy is strong and the Fed risk little by keeping rates higher for longer.  Bernanke and Blanchard basically came out and said people need to lose jobs for inflation to come down, kind of what Powell said when he said "there will be pain" in the fight to get inflation back down.

Jamie Dimon believes there are a 'lot of inflationary forces in front of us' but that he believes the markets are failing to properly price risks to a soft landing, including that of higher rates due to higher inflation.

Dimon isn't in the business of predicting rates per se, when he does, he's often wrong, but I do believe he has a track record as a prudent risk manager.  When it comes to risk management, remember, 'The price of long term stock market returns is uncertainty and volatility.' - Morgan Housel.   And I think what you can learn from everyone wiser than me is what the late great Peter Bernstein said: "survival is the only road to riches. Let me say that again: Survival is the only road to riches. You should try to maximize return only if losses would not threaten your survival and if you have a compelling future need for the extra gains you might earn."

On the day ahead, it's Friday.  Maybe re-read the quotes above.  The leading indicators and Gov. Waller can wait.

XTOD (this doesn't sound fun): 2. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tighter labor markets, and the resulting rises in nominal wages, have become relatively more important sources of the remaining inflation in many countries. What happens in labor markets will largely determine the cost of the “last mile”. In several countries, including the United States, curbing wage inflation, and returning price inflation to target may require a period of modestly higher unemployment

XTOD: If you don’t eat, don’t have a home and don’t have a car, inflation is gone  The homeless are seeing deflation here! Time to cut rates  The homeless can jet from tent village to tent village with a pretty decent discount though! Happy days

XTOD: Compounding is great, except when it comes to inflation...

▪ Inflation hasn't fallen in a single month since Jan 2021

▪ YoY inflation hasn't dipped below 3% in 37 consecutive months

▪ Prices are up 19.5% in less than 4 years, wiping out 1/5th of the Dollar's purchasing power 

Welcome to compounding inflation

XTOD: Starwood’s $10bn property fund taps credit line as investors pull money via ⁦ @FT

⁩ #CMBS https://www.ft.com/content/1b0ce791-e387-4ea4-852a-14d59b3ced1f?sharetype=blocked

XTOD: Show me a person who has never failed, and I will show you a failure of a person. What we learn from failure, and what we do with that knowledge, is what matters –– and it's what makes us who we are.

Daily Economic Update: May 16, 2024

CPI downside surprise allows risk assets to reach new record highs (I'm working on my poetic prowess).  Taking stock of stocks S&P at 5,308 with records for Nasdaq and Dow as well.  Does one CPI print coming in lower than estimate after 3 straight higher than expected prints really mark a new trend? Does it matter Powell says no hikes ever again or something like that and he’s never pivoted, right? (Remember “we’re along way from neutral” in 2018? )

Headline CPI came in at at 3.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM vs. consensus of 3.4% and 0.4%. The MoM Core reading at 0.3% v. the 0.4% est and prior seemed to be what caused the market to rejoice. Slowing primary and owners equivalent rents, declining car prices were highlighted but there still seem to be some persistent inflation in personal services, healthcare and car insurance

Retail sales were unchanged coming in below consensus and showed a decline in the control group.

Still lots of chatter expressing concerns about labor market and loan delinquencies, guess time will tell.

Yields fell 10bps with markets pricing in about 2 rate cuts, with some pulling forward their forecast for the first cut to come in July.  The 2Y is 4.73% and 10Y is 4.34%.

On the day ahead it is jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilization on the data front and Fed's Williams as the highlight of Fedspeak.

You can start looking forward to a Presidential debate in June.

XTOD: Forecasters got this month exactly right. Monthly core CPI inflation rate eased off a little from the last few months but still high.

Annual rates:

1 month: 3.6%

3 months: 4.1%

6 months: 4.0%

12 months: 3.6%

Bottom line: A relatively dull report that won't change anything. Inflation is still too high. A tiny bit of easing but no surprise there--there never was any reason to believe underlying inflation was anything like the 4.5% pace we had been seeing in recent months.

XTOD: Ed Yardeni: “If the Fed does start to lower interest rates that could create a meltup” on the S&P 500, meaning “we’d blow right through 5,400 in a heartbeat, and we could very well get to my target of 6,000 for the end of next year by the end of this year.”

XTOD: BMO: “.. it has become clear to us that we underestimated the strength of the market momentum .. As such, we are increasing our 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,600, which currently represents the highest forecast based on the latest Bloomberg strategist survey. .. the market is behaving in a similar fashion to 2021 and 2023 – years where we did not give enough credit to the strength of market momentum, something we are trying to avoid this time around.” [Belski.

XTOD: The bull case for stocks for year end.  It's a magical place where term premiums stay at zero. 30 yr bonds yield 4% AND earnings grow 11% a year this year and next. That level is 6350 or a 19% return.  It would require earnings growth AND multiple increases from 21.2 to 23.5 $SPY

XTOD: At my hedge fund, I pay an analyst to walk around parks in Austin, SF, and NY and ask these people who are tanning at 2pm on a Tuesday where they work.  We then short the stock.We’re up 728% this year.

Daily Economic Update: May 15, 2024

CPI Day is here, the anticipation is palpable. Unless you care more about meme stocks, anything involving AI, crypto meme coins, longer term ramifications of geopolitics, tariffs, the 2024 election, sports, your family, etc. (hopefully not in that order)...this is the day you've been waiting for all week.

PPI came in hot, maybe those consumer and business inflation surveys mentioned yesterday were onto something. Headline PPI was up +0.5% MoM above the 0.3% est. with services up 0.6%.  A lot of attention seems to have landed on the 3.9% increase in the cost of portfolio management.  Markets going up, leads to portfolio management fees go up and that is in PPI.  That gives a new sense of how/why "financial conditions" matter.  Remember when the Fed said they were relying upon financial conditions tightening to do some of the work for them, has that happened?  Even yesterday Powell said that he thinks about monetary policy through its "effect on financial conditions more broadly and on the economy".  Judging by PPI, I guess the answer to whether financial conditions are tightening is found by asking your financial advisor, after all they are likely making more money because your assets are up.

In other Fed news, both NY Fed and STL Fed had reports out that express some concern in rising credit card delinquencies, something to add to your list of things to keep an eye on.

Powell kept the script on being data dependent as it relates to "higher for longer" and that he isn't ready to prejudge whether inflation will remain persistent going forward.

On the day ahead it's CPI, Retail Sales and moar Fedspeak.

I guess I'll get back to drawing pictures to animate and Tweet out in an effort to cause certain stocks to moon, I'll report back when complete.

XTOD: The market is beyond satire, you can’t make it up

XTOD: Here's   what should be done to address inflation: cut government spending, lower overnight rates, and remove the excess liquidity that's still sitting in the RRP facility.

XTOD: I just imposed a series of tariffs on goods made in China:  25% on steel and aluminum,  50% on semiconductors,  100% on EVs,  And 50% on solar panels.  China is determined to dominate these industries. I'm determined to ensure America leads the world in them.

XTOD: And are lumber tariffs next? This is not the path to a healthier economy!

XTOD: Don't understand how "protecting/hiding" our companies from the global competitive reality helps America "lead." In contrast, it will make our companies weaker by limiting their fitness. It will also drive further inflation.  Certainly the lobbyists in DC are happy w/ outcome.

XTOD: People talking abt election odds should be paying attention to the fact that the (actuarial) probability of at least one of the 2 main presidential candidate dying over the next year is ~12%**plus or minus adjustment for current health.

XTOD: Time is the greatest ally of compounding and confers exponential powers upon those who think and act long term.   n is the only element in the compound interest equation that exists in the exponent and is the numeric that the entire expression is raised to the power of.

Daily Economic Update: May 14, 2024

Aside from the fun times with GameStop meme trading as "Roaring Kitty" resurfaced on X for the first time in 3 years, it was a pretty quiet market days with all eyes towards inflation data with PPI today and CPI on Wednesday.  If you're curious about GameStop, Andrew Tate (I thought he was in jail) vowed to never sell the GameStop shares he bought today, no matter what, "PERMA DONATIONS TO THE CAUSE AGAINST THE SYSTEM".  I'm not sure exactly what that means, but time to revisit my post from January on finfluencers and civilization https://edwardquince.blogspot.com/2024/01/daily-economic-update-january-29-2024.html

Yesterday's NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed increasing median inflation expectations at both the 1Y and 5Y ahead horizons to 3.3% and 2.8% respectively.  Consumers also showed confidence in their job prospects.  Separately the Cleveland Fed's Survey of Firms Inflation Expectations also showed CEO's and executives raising their 1Y ahead inflation expectations, in this case up to 3.8% from 3.4% back in January.  Inflation is so under control that everyone thinks it's not under control, crazy reverse, psyops I'm sure.

If trading meme stocks and inflation data isn't your thing feel free to join the discussion over bat speed and swing length.

On the day ahead it's PPI at 830am and Powell at 10am as the highlights.

XTOD: Yeah so basically GameStop is so back, it’s wild. RoaringKitty just tweeted a random photo after 3 years and that was seen as a bullish signal so the stock ripped 100% and so did other meme stocks. You should get in before we head to the moon haha I’ll send you my robinhood link

XTOD: $GME has already traded almost a third of its outstanding shares and it's not even noon. 97.7M shares traded so far of 306M shares outstanding.

XTOD: In the coming decades, all of East Asia’s main states will experience an era of depopulation, making it more difficult for them to generate economic growth, mobilize armed forces, and extend influence abroad, writes Nicholas Eberstadt.

https://trib.al/bonL4w5

XTOD: You either grow into your potential or you keep living the same six months over and over again.   The difference is how many hard conversations you’re willing to have and how fast you have them once you realize you need to.

XTOD: The depth of your understanding is reflected in the simplicity of your explanations.

Daily Economic Update: May 13, 2024

Last week was a good week for equities, despite Friday's UofM report showing further concerns about inflation with rising year ahead inflation expectations (likely due to gas prices).  Speaking of inflation, on the week ahead it's all about CPI.  The internet and fintwit was ablaze with creating a CPI coffee controversy, with the BLS supposedly removing coffee from the CPI.  The story was based on this https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/discontinued-series.htm  however all indications that coffee is very much still in CPI and is an incredibly small component. 

Anyway,  we'll see what CPI brings unless something else comes along to change the narrative.  Lest we forget about two wars, including an apparent assassination attempt against Zelensky in Ukraine.  Or the Kendrick Lamar v. Drake beef for that matter (apparently the Biden campaign used Lamar's diss track "Euphoria" in a campaign video and Lamar's "Not Like Us" broke a Spotify streaming record to become the most streamed American hip-hip song in a single-day with 6.59 million).

If you're not into following Kendrick vs. Drake diss tracks, you could read the latest posts from John Cochrane's Substack called  "Fiscal Tidbits".  As a starting point, remember, "Fiscal theory does not say that deficits cause inflation. It only says that the fraction of deficit people do not expect to be paid back, either by higher future surplus or by lower future interest costs, is inflationary."  In the first post there is an interesting thought on how at higher levels of debt, deficits have a lower impact on inflation. 

"surpluses relative to debt drive inflation. Given deficits and expected surpluses, more debt means less inflation. Your intuition about debt being bad is also correct, because it typically means it will be harder for a country to promise future surpluses to pay off deficits. Beware in reading history, or judging whether more debt makes inflation more likely, just what is actually held constant and what is not".....

"The interest cost is important. 1% interest rate means 1% of GDP primary deficit at 100% debt to GDP. It means 2.5% primary deficit at 250% debt to GDP. That’s a reason that, contrary to last point, more debt means more inflation danger. It means more exposure to interest rate changes."

Taking stock we have 2Y yield at 4.87% and 10Y at 4.50%.  The last Atlanta Fed GDP Now is at 4.2% vs. 2.23% for the NY Fed GDP Nowcast and the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting has inflation still running above target.   

On the week ahead it's:

Monday:  Fed Jefferson

Tuesday: NFIB Small Business, PPI,  Powell speaks at 10am

Wed: CPI, Retail Sales and Fedspeak

Thur: Jobless claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed, Fedspeak including Williams

Friday: Leading indicators, Fed Waller

XTOD: The birth rate is the first indicator of a people’s hope. Without children and young people, a country loses its drive for the future.

XTOD: I think one of my biggest fears is that the ‘fake economy’ just collapses over my lifetime.  As in after 40 years of escalating corporate BS and proliferation of prestigious makework “Strategy Director” and ppt-making jobs, society collectively just realizes it’s all pointless

XTOD: Only one investor can say their competitive advantage is "I'm smarter than everyone else" and it's clear that was Jim Simons.

XTOD: I am gonna go full-on plunger on Blackstone.  That stock is a zero.

XTOD: Here’s how I think of this concept.   Govt “money printing” or deficits add a money-like instrument to the aggregate domestic economy. This money printing also creates a liability for the aggregate domestic economy. Money (in financial asset form) is always an asset and liability.  

The key question is whether the subsequent spending of that instrument has a multiplier effects which results in the creation of the real resources that make it inflation neutral.  

Like all debt creation the answer is more complex than just “debt/money creation = inflation”.  

But Lyn is correct. It creates a surplus of money and all else equal this would be inflationary. All else isn’t always equal of course. Reality is messy.

.XTOD: Money is emotional, not rational. That's why debt is often the result of deep-rooted mindset issues, not income levels.

XTOD: That was the most remarkable inning I have ever seen in person.

5:24 PM: Paul Skenes pulled in the 5th after allowing two hits. 6-1 PIT.

5:26: Kyle Nicolas comes in and gets two quick outs.

5:28: HBP loads the bases.

5:29: 4 pitch BB. 6-2 PIT

5:31: 4 pitch BB. 6-3 PIT

5:33: 4 pitch BB. 6-4 PIT

PITCHING CHANGE

5:37: 5 pitch BB: 6-5 PIT

5:40: Infield single. 6-6 CHC

5:41: Game delayed by rain

PITCHING CHANGE

8:01: Game resumes

8:03: 4 pitch BB. 7-6 CHC

8:04: 5 pitch BB. 8-6 CHC

8:05: Inning ends

Daily Economic Update: May 10, 2024

As expected the BoE was on hold, though confidence in rate cuts coming as soon as June increased. In the U.S. jobless claims seemed to get the message that people (see Jim Bianco here) were concerned that the data was manipulated after many prints at 212K in the data set, so this time they spiked up to 231K.   The 30Y Auction was strong, easing concerns about market demand for longer-term debt (for today at least).  Yields moved lower and stocks moved higher, but I'm not sure anyone cares much until next week's CPI data.  2Y is around 4.80% and 10's are around 4.45%.

On the day ahead, UofM sentiment is the highlight.  Markets will continue to watch the situation in Gaza and the possibility that the U.S. will cut off certain weapons shipments if Israel invades Rafah.

XTOD: You will never find one answer to what makes you happy. There are many answers, and they change based on your current state.  People need to relax, but if all you do is sit on the beach, it gets old. People find meaning in work, but if all you do is work, it gets exhausting. People benefit from exercise, but if all you do is exercise, it gets unhealthy.  Happiness will always be fleeting because your needs change over time. The question is: what do you need right now?

XTOD: "Girard’s theory of mimetic desire describes our fundamental compulsion to want what others want or have. 'We don’t even know what our desire is. We ask other people to tell us our desires'...'you desire stuff exclusively because other people desire it.'"

XTOD: This ad is (unintentional) perfect metaphor for today's creative dark age: compress organic instruments, joyful/imperfect machines, tangible art, our entire physical reality into a soulless, postmodern, read-only device a multi-trillion $ corporation controls what you do with

XTOD: The MMT people's disgraceful attempt at a "gotcha" on Jared Bernstein should warn us away from their movement. But what's far more dangerous is their idea that governments can pay for their spending by increasing the money supply. That way lies disaster.  https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-macro-arsonists

XTOD: MMT works so long as nominal rates can be held at zero This is the bind that our Japanese brothers find themselves in The collateral bedrock of global money creation is presently set at 5.5pc

They need to raise rates But their debt load makes this impossible They can huff and puff and bluster and intervene But they are the Ohbayashi Maru A stricken vessel in a universe of MMT far, far away

And I don't think their currency is coming back

XTOD: “The world will ask you who you are, and if you don’t know, the world will tell you.”

~Carl Jung