Daily Economic Update: January 11, 2024

CPI day is here.  The consensus is for 0.3% MOM and 3.8% YOY increase in core and slightly lower prints in the headline numbers at 0.2% and 3.2% respectively.  I have no idea what the impact of Zuckerberg feeding his Hawaiian raised cows macadamia nuts and artisanal beers will have on current or future inflation.  

Yesterday, the spot BTC ETF's actually got approved (for real this time), the 10Y retook 4%, stocks rose and Matt Levine weighed in on some of his current favorite topics, Securities Fraud & Insider Trading, both while discussing Bitcoin ETF approvals and the Reddit thread: "Is it insider trading if I bought Boeing puts while I am inside the wrecked airplane? …"...classic stuff.

Yesterday, Japanese stocks hit a 34 year highs.  In his commentary to the 2003 edition of Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor, journalist Jason Zweig used Japan as an example of why owning foreign stocks is advisable.  Zweig states: "It's the end of 1989, and you're Japanese. Here are the facts: 

• Over the past 10 years, your stock market has gained an annual average of 21.2%, well above the 17.5% annual gains in the United States
• Japanese companies are buying up everything in the United states from Pebble Beach golf course to Rockefeller Center; meanwhile American firms like Drexel Burnham Lambert, Financial Corp. of America, and Texaco are going bankrupt.
• The U.S. high-tech industry is dying. Japan's is booming.

    In 1989, in the land of the rising sun, you can only conclude that investing outside of Japan is the dumbest idea since sushi vending machines.  Naturally you put all your money in Japanese stocks. 

    The result? Over the next decade, you lose roughly two-thirds of your money.

    The lesson?  It's not that you should never invest in foreign markets like Japan; it's that the Japanese should never have kept all their money at home.  And neither should you. If you live in the United states, work in the United States, and get paid in U.S. Dollars, you are already making a multilayered bet on the U.S. economy.  To be prudent you should put some of your investment portfolio elsewhere - simply because no one, anywhere, can ever know what the future will bring at home or abroad."

One difference that I see between the 2003 story and today is that there are many more multinational companies listed in both the U.S. and foreign markets that generate at least a decently high proportion of their earnings from non-U.S. markets, which should provide some international diversification inherently.  Nonetheless it's a good reminder that we're always facing the unknowable future.

With the spot BTC ETF approved and the continued inundation of investment outlooks, perhaps it's a good time to revisit the distinction between investing and speculating.  Doing so makes you realize how difficult it is to separate investing from speculation.  Everyone thinks that the distinction between those two terms is so easy (go ahead take out a piece of paper and try to clearly define each term), partly, I believe, because most people don't want to believe that they're speculating.  The classic definition of investing comes from Benjamin Graham where he describes investing as "an operation, which upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and adequate return."  Graham makes clear that investing involves a true analysis of the company whose securities are being purchased and that in making such analysis you ensure you are confident that serious losses and would be willing to hold the stock even if you had no way of knowing its daily share price.

Another definition of investing that I believe deserves serious consideration comes from Martin Fridson whereby he states: "Having rejected the customary bases for distinguishing between investment and speculation, I realized that the distinction that actually mattered was between holding the market portfolio and holding any other mix of securities and weightings. I dubbed the latter behavior “subdiversification.” "One might subdiversify for a specialized purpose, such as matching assets to a particular set of liabilities. That strategy aims at eliminating uncertainty and cannot reasonably be regarded as speculation. If, however, an individual overweights certain securities and underweights others with an eye toward outperforming the market portfolio, that individual is speculating."

Back in 2013, CFA's Future of Finance Forum had a panel on the topic of investing vs. speculating. Robert Hagstrom, CFA offered up his assessment as “An investor thinks foremost of the asset first then the price of the asset afterwards...“A speculator thinks foremost of price first and then the asset later or not at all.” And perhaps he summed up the topic best, lamenting: "“How is it an accountant can tell me the difference between debits and credits; a lawyer can define the differences between a felony and a misdemeanor; and a doctor can tell me what is the difference between a bacterial infection and a viral infection but we in the financial industry cannot answer . . . what is the difference between investing and speculation[?]”

XTOD: *FED'S WILLIAMS: RATES RESTRICTIVE ENOUGH TO REACH 2% PRICE GOAL

*WILLIAMS:MUST BE CONFIDENT INFLATION HEADED TO 2% BEFORE EASING

*WILLIAMS: DON'T SEEM CLOSE TO POINT OF SLOWING ASSET RUNOFF

XTOD: Todd Combs on reading what others don't: I think most people would probably be surprised how few people actually read annual reports and 10ks and so forth...let alone trade magazines and so forth. Like, I still read trade magazines and they're a phenomenal source of information...get information just as a journalist would.

XTOD: What we have learned from all the recent regional (NY, Philly, Dallas, etc…) Fed Surveys (as the name indicates, these come from the beast’s mouth) is that wage indicators have been showing an inflection higher for a few months now. 

That means AHE are likely to reflect this in q1 and inflect higher.  

Which makes you really wonder, how in the face of this adverse odds did the Fed and JPOW chose to perform their dovish pivot, knowing damn well that they ran a high risk of yet another policy mistake. 

You could argue, one more, one less, what’s the big deal. And no one can blame you for it.

XTOD:  Did you know America is now producing more oil and gas than any other nation on Earth?

XTOD (epic Airbnb thread - something like 30 million + views):  For a fun game, let's do a tour of the unit @Airbnb  refuses to give me a refund for! I'm sure they'd hate if you liked it shared this, which seems to be the only way to get their attention.  Let's start with the entryway. Not off to a great start re: cleanliness. https://x.com/SureAsMel/status/1744876406020915672?s=20

Daily Economic Update: January 10, 2024

Howard Mark's writing a memo that uses Edward Chancellor's excellent book, The Price of Time, as the source of Mark's inspiration, sign me up!  I've written about Chancellor's book in this LinkedIn article and I've mentioned Marks a few times on this blog (you can search) and have always enjoyed his thinking on risk and leverage, including this quote: 

"Leverage doesn’t add value or make an investment better. Like everything else in

the investment world other than pure skill, leverage is a two-edged sword – in fact,

probably the ultimate two-edged sword. It helps when you’re right and hurts when

you’re wrong. "

As for Mark's latest memo "Easy Money" , I would summarize and comment on Mark's thoughts as follows:

• Mark's notes (again) that the extended period of low interest rates had a major impact on business and the associated appreciation of assets.
• Mark's list the stimulative effects of lower interest rates, including pushing investors out into riskier investments in a classic 'search for yield'.
• He goes onto discuss some of the problems that occur with abnormally low interest rates, something Chancellor provides examples of in his book and something I equally mentioned in my LinkedIn article (above).  In my article I wrote - "As Chancellor states: “Without interest, future income streams are impossible to value. Capital can’t be properly allocated and too little is saved. If this situation continues for long, then the state investment would have to replace private investment and central banks would have to replace commercial banks as the major providers of credit.” "
• Mark's cites a number of "malinvestment" examples from the recent cycle of low yields including Argentinian 100 year bonds, financing of LBO's, Theranos & FTX scams, and the proliferation of 'zombie companies'.
• As always Mark's never misses an opportunity to discuss leverage, writing: "In much the same way, leverage can make otherwise unattractive investments investible....it must be noted that cheap leverage doesn’t make investments better; it merely amplifies the results. In times of low interest rates, absolute prospective returns are low and leverage is cheap.  Why not use a lot of leverage to increase expected returns?  In the late 2010s, money flowed to both private equity, given its emphasis on leveraged returns from company ownership, and private credit, which primarily provides debt capital to private equity deals.  These trends complemented each other and led to a significant upswing in levered investing."  Further providing, "Heavy leverage can render companies fragile and make it hard for them to get through the proverbial low spots in the stream"
• Mark's also talks about the perils of borrowing short to invest long, reminiscent of the March 2023 bank failures, and mentions some of the challenges of a psychological belief in lower for longer rates.
• After discussing the impact of the low interest rate cycle, Mark's moves onto to discussing the power of understanding financial history and specifically that of credit cycles.  Interestingly Mark's uses the same John Mills quote in his article that I used in mine....should I go all Bill Ackman on him?
• Mark's notes how similar the post-GFC years characterized by 'easy money' have been to other periods of financial history that did not end well for investors, yet, the lessons of the past fall on deaf ears.
• While avoiding making any predictions, Mark's does not believe we're going back to unusually low interest rates and characterizes current interest rates as "normal", believing that only a true economic emergency should lead to rates lower than 2-4% range over the coming years.
• Mark's believe the market is currently pricing in "goldilocks thinking" as it relates to either what will be the likely strength of weaknesses in the economy which will reveal themselves in the future and that such thinking will lead to disappointment.

Yesterday, stocks were little changed and yields remain largely rangebound with the 10Y Treasury seemingly caught in a trading range from around 4-4.05%. Spot BTC ETF's were "approved" until it turned out the SEC's Twitter account was "compromised".  Got to love how much crypto can and does get manipulated.

Treasury Supply (10Y auction today), earnings season and CPI on the horizon. 

XTOD: What's the lesson I want you to understand?  Greed and status can make you successful to the point of self-destruction. Leverage + taking instant IRS credits (filing taxes w/ accelerated depreciation) to live large, acquire properties, be that person on X, IG or TikTok talking about financial freedom through owning real estate is fun, until it's not.

XTOD: So, what is the purpose behind those who tell tales of cheap Canadian drugs? They seek to imply that our system is broken, and delivers only expensive drugs, when the socialist Canadian system delivers the goods for its people. Thus, they implicitly argue that we need to have socialism here. It's not complicated.  So, repeat after me. We could go with the Canadian system and have super cheap drugs, if only we can find a much bigger, more medically advanced, freer country right next to us to make miracle drugs for themselves, and then we insist that we pay them only a bit above their variable cost for our share, and then they in turn agree to let us be their parasite. Mexico, would you mind helping us out?”

XTOD: Hoarding talent backfires. Managers who fail to promote people wind up with weaker teams. 

Study of 96k job applications: Bosses who advanced their employees attracted more & better internal candidates for open positions.  People gravitate to leaders who invest in their growth

XTOD: Makes me happy to see one of my old blog posts still being read, liked, and shared.

https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2010/12/milton-friedmans-thermostat.html

XTOD: An analysis finds that nominal wage growth peaked in 2022. In 2023, wages were still increasing but at a slower rate, and growth has yet to fall to pre-pandemic levels https://ow.ly/EF4E50Qpc0s

Daily Economic Update: January 9, 2024

An everything rally to start the week as stocks generally rose (AI > airplane stocks on the day) while yields fell 3-4bps.  Elon's drug use, an oil price cut from the Saudi's, and the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations were the headlines.  Of those it's likely the oil and inflation expectations that mattered.  The NY Fed survey showed inflation expectations continue to decline with the 1-year ahead expectations hitting the lowest level since January 2021, further fueling rate cut speculation.

Fed Governor Bowman sounded hawkish citing upside inflation risk stemming from geopolitical risk to food and energy, the easing of financial conditions and a continued strength in labor markets.

XTOD: The FTPL view of the recent disinflation: "The model's account of the end of inflation is perhaps even more important than its account of the rise. A one-time fiscal shock leads to a one-time rise in the price level, to wipe out just enough real value of nominal debt. Inflation goes away on its own once that is achieved." (1/2)  @JohnHCochrane   https://grumpy-economist.com/p/fiscal-narratives-for-us-inflation

John also reminds us that the "US government borrowed about $5 trillion dollars [and] monetized about $3 trillion of that issue." This helicopter drop restored the dollar size of the economy to its pre-pandemic trend path, but also caused it to rise about $2 𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒍𝒍𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒂𝒃𝒐𝒗𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒅 (similar story for PCE). That above-trend surge in aggregate demand was a policy choice. One could easily imagine a world with rapid catchup growth to trend with far less overshoot of it. (2/2)

XTOD: If BofA is correct and QT is over by July what are you doing buying bonds?  Just go all in on Meme stonks, crypto and Gold.  Why bother with anything else.  NOT ADVICE

XTOD: Kind reminder that Bank Reserves + RRP are still running at circa 15% of US GDP.   Last time Fed broke markets in 19, they were closer 8%.   Keep this in mind when you hear all the « Fed should do this and that or else something will break »  System is still operating with a large reserves buffer in US

XTOD: One of the hot new trends in private credit is evergreen funds, that let investors put in and withdraw their capital more easily

XTOD: Nike says goodbye to Tiger Woods after a 27-year partnership.

Daily Economic Update: January 8, 2024

 2024 has been off to an interesting start with some interesting headlines both economic and non-economic.  On the economic front, we had a Friday Job report that seemed better than expected, though everyone is spent the remainder of the day looking for reasons to dismiss any strength in the report.  Then we had ISM Services report showing the services employment index hitting a low not seen since the early part of Covid.  Per the ISM press release: "Comments from respondents include: “Remote work is preferred for most, making it difficult to recruit skilled employees, and our skilled employees are leaving for hybrid options” and “Layoffs have increased in the professional services and staffing industries over the past several months as companies try to reduce cost amid the climate of economic uncertainty and decreasing customer demand."  Real estate was listed as one of the industries where employment was challenged, go figure.  The rest of the economic debate to start the year continues to be focused on whether or not you can have a soft landing and whether or not the Fed has any role in creating a soft landing or whether it was all supply shocks.  I guess I'll add the debate over the end of QT to the list, especially given Lorie Logan's Saturday speech where she discussed monitoring the level of the Fed's ON RRP to determine when to slow or stop the pace of QT.

On the non-economic front, Boeing can't seem to get their problems behind them following the weekend's fuselage incident (aka holy crap a door of the plane got ripped off mid-flight and lucky no one got sucked out the of plane).  This was the second incredible airplane story of 2024, following the collision in Tokyo where somehow most everyone escaped alive.  

If crazy airplane stories aren't your thing you can read something like 10,000 to a million words from Bill Ackman as he fights 'Higher Education' and tries to figure out what actually constitutes plagiarism, what proper citation looks like, and whether and when AI will end all tenured professors careers by uncovering plagiarism. 

While there are plenty of political stories, let's not forget two wars going on, one of which appears to be causing major shipping issues.  On the positive (I guess?) it does look like a government shutdown might be avoided as there appears to be some agreement on spending that could lead to passage of appropriations bills before the January 19th deadline.

On the week ahead we'll get inflation data as the highlight. CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday.

XTOD: It is 1989, I am not born, Matt Darling is explaining how the median is not the average

It is 2005, I'm 3 years old, Matt Darling is explaining how the median is not the average

It is 2024, I'm 21 years old, Matt Darling is explaining how the median is not the average

XTOD: I want Matt to run for president one day so he can explain to the American public what a median is on the national stage

XTOD: people remember in the back of their brain that mean, median, and mode are 3 different things, one is "vulnerable to outliers" and another isn't, then see a statistic they dislike and go "oh yeah median, that's vulnerable to outliers", and misremember which one isn't vulnerable

XTOD: gonna make a bold prediction and say next year, economic statistics will confuse more people than ever before

XTOD: TUNA SELLS FOR RECORD-BREAKING $789K IN TOKYO, BUYER SAYS, 'I'D BEEN FEELING THAT THE ECONOMY WAS GETTING BETTER (MSN)  In Tokyo’s Toyosu fish market, a bluefin tuna has been auctioned for an astonishing 114.24 million yen ($789,000), making it the fourth-highest price in recorded history.  Full article:

https://msn.com/en-us/money/companies/tuna-sells-for-record-breaking-789k-in-tokyo-buyer-says-i-d-been-feeling-that-the-economy-was-getting-better/ar-AA1muvxX?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=e89bbb5821df46ac98cc929d5613dab4&ei=65

XTOD: "The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, the country’s second-largest pension fund, may borrow more than $30 billion to help it maintain liquidity without having to sell assets at fire-sale prices..."

XTOD: I love that the nyt deep dive on how the Harvard board turned on Gay is all about conversations taking place entirely at vacation spots for the superrich.  ‘And the heiress to the tootsie roll fortune took an urgent call from her lodge in Aspen…’....The thing to understand about all of these lazy entitled pieces of shit is that this is how virtually every big public corporation in America is governed.

XTOD: Here's where I disagree with Krugman. If the inflation of 2021-22 had been *only* due to a supply shock (as in this picture), the economy wouldn't have boomed in 2021-22; we'd have had stagflation.   What seems more likely to me is a supply shock AND a demand shock.

XTOD: There is no sin, there is no love, there is no God—there is no teleology whatsoever in Sam Altman’s worldview. The most fight is between “technological-driven growth” and decline. That’s it. That’s the whole future. 

Helping people prepare for all the wrong battles.

Daily Economic Update: January 5, 2024

The first Job's Day in 'merica for 2024.  Consensus is calling for headline payroll increase of +175K and unemployment rate ticking up to 3.8%.

Yesterday: ADP better than expected, jobless claims lower than expected, EU inflation hotter than expected.  The 10Y yield trades back to 4% yield. We'll see what today's Job's report shows.

XTOD: When I grow up I want to be an uncorrelated asset.

XTOD: Pre-Payrolls Options Wager Targets 4.15% 10-Year By Friday Close: BBG

XTOD: I don't understand how anyone can justify rate cuts with initial claims close to 50 year lows

XTOD: This seems like a phenomenon crying out for explanation.  It's been 20 years since a majority of Americans have said they’re satisfied with the way things are going—a drought with no precedent in modern polling.  And it's worse now then ever.  via  @bpmehlman's new annual deck

Daily Economic Update: January 4, 2024

The 10Y crossed 4%, only to subsequently rally back to 3.92% while stocks sold off for a second straight session have made for a tough start to 2024.  Perhaps the market decided it was getting a little ahead of itself in pricing in complete euphoria at the tail end of 2023 or perhaps it's just really hard to create narratives to correspond with every daily market move.  Yesterday's JOLTS data continued to show some softening in the labor market with hiring and quits on the decline.  The FOMC minutes reaffirmed that the Fed had likely reached the peak of their policy rate, but there didn't seem to be provide much indication that the Fed was looking to cut aggressively any time soon.

On the day ahead jobless claims will be the main event ahead of Friday's Job's report.

XTOD: Highlight from FOMC minutes: “Several participants noted the risk that, if labor demand were to weaken substantially further, the labor market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions.”  They believe in the mechanics behind Sahm Rule.

XTOD: One thing I find myself shaking my head over pretty much daily is the size of the financial complexity complex v. the ease/simplicity of setting up a reasonable portfolio of cheap index funds.  

Why are so many people engaged in making it seem harder than it really is?

XTOD: The single family home is a terrible investment. Low return, high leverage, illiquid, idiosyncratic risk, value depends on local politics, home value falls with local economy and your job. Build "generational wealth" in stocks, which are far more "accessible." Stop subsidizing!

Daily Economic Update: January 3, 2024

2024 started with a sell-off in tech stocks following Barclay's downgrade of Apple shares and a higher 10Y yield, with the 10Y crossing 3.95%.  On the day ahead it's Richmond Fed's Barkin, JOLTS, ISM Manufacturing and FOMC Minutes.

XTOD: Scratching my head over the debate about whether inflation was caused by supply constraints (team transitory) or excess demand. Inflation is a result of imbalances between the two. Pouring massive monetary stimulus into a supply constrained economy was going to inevitably lead to inflation.

XTOD: I knew the 90s were back, but I didn't realize it was so back that Abercrombie and Fitch shares are at all-time highs.  The stock is now at 90.96, with a 690.96% all time percentage gain.

XTOD: Jimmy Kimmel threatens legal action against quarterback Aaron Rodgers for suggesting that his name would be on the Epstein associates list.

Daily Economic Update: January 2, 2024

2024 is upon us. I wanted to start the year with a list of words and phrases that I think can be retired and I don't want to hear used in 2024, however, I've been a bit under the weather and didn't get too far.  Feel free to create your own list or add words in the comments:

• "Data-dependent" - as it relates to the Fed or really any business decision, of course the decision was data-dependent. Until you can show me the time that no data was considered at all, this phrase should be retired.  How many times did you hear the Fed's decisions are now "data-dependent".  Come on, that implies the previous decisions considered no data. The Fed employees thousands of researchers and economist who run models using data, everything they do is data-dependent.
  
  
• "Reimagine" - I thought this one was slowly fading from the vernacular, but I feel like I saw a reemergence late in the year. Enough imagining, if you can identify the problem and know a good solution, just make a meaningful change to the thing.

We finished 2023 with stocks (9 straight winning weeks) and bonds rallying post the December 13th FOMC meeting and the market pricing in nearly 7 rate cuts for 2024 and equity strategist revising their S&P targets higher.  The consensus seems to be pricing in a "soft landing", a phrase for which there is no consensus as to it's meaning and as to whether and when it is achieved.  Economist of different stripes continue to argue over whether this period of inflation was "transitory".

Holiday travel and spending seemed strong and Atlanta Fed's wage growth tracker shows wages tracking 5.2% higher than the prior year and that's before we head into raises and bonus season.  If wages continue to rise at a 5% clip, it would seem that it could create challenges for further disinflation, especially if the Fed begins to cut rates without unemployment rising.

If you are looking for narratives that run counter to the current consensus calling for lower yields there are a handful out there, one of which is Canadian economist William White's "new age of scarcity" prediction.  White, who worked at the BIS with Claudio Borio, has been writing about how the world is transitioning from what he calls an "age of plenty" to an "age of scarcity".  He points to:

• The period from the 80's through 2020 as being characterized by positive supply shocks that lowered inflation and increased growth.
• He sees 5 area's where previously positive supply-side forces are now working in reverse:
1. Globalization - at present countries are de-risking supply chains, engaging in protectionism, all reversing trends that began with the break up of the Soviet Union and the opening up of China's economy.
2. Labor Markets - at present the global labor market is shrinking and labor participation is falling, as well as evidence of global skills mismatches.
3. Production Processes - moving from efficiency to resiliency.
4. Energy and Natural Resources - decarbonization and the need for new metals for electrification will be costly.
5. Digitalization - White believes it too early to tell whether there will be meaningful productivity gains from AI and other new technologies.

White further posits that the challenges associated with each of the aforementioned supply shocks will likely be met by increased expenditures by governments that will increase demand.  In summary he believes economies will face higher inflation and higher real rates for much longer than most expect.

I have no clue what views will be right in 2024, but I'm going to guess that the advice Paul Volcker left in his 2018 biography, "Keeping At It", may not be entirely lost on JPOW.  That advice is:

"A lesson from my career is that such successes [in maintaining low inflation] can carry the seeds of its own destruction. I've watched country after country, faced with damaging inflation, fight to restore stability.  Then, with victory in sight, the authorities relax and accept a "little inflation" in the hope of stimulating further growth, only to se the process resume all over again."

On the week ahead, the most attention will be on Friday's Jobs Report, but we'll also get JOLTS and FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and ISM data on both Wed and Fri. 

XTOD: Compare 2020 to 2023.  Use Phillips curve if you like.  Supply is the same.  Inflation is the same.  Inflation expectations are the same.  UE is the same.  Real demand is largely the same (people don’t drastically change their lifestyle in a few years).  The only thing left is the supply of currency, which went up massively during Covid.  The most obvious answer is fiscal impulse driven by deficit spending.  If you don’t fix the rate of deficit spending you will not fix inflation.  Deficit spending declined after the huge fiscal impulse but is accelerating again.  Yellen will want JPOW to print money to finance the debt, and JPOW will want yellen to issue duration to finance the debt.  So 2024 is either more inflation or much higher rates.  I would like a supply shock theorist to address this because I genuinely don’t understand how this can be ignored.

XTOD: So... Jamie Dimon, who has called bitcoin a "hyped up fraud", "worse than tulips", etc, is going to be the Authorized Participant for the biggest bitcoin ETF soon to be approved by @GaryGensler

, and run by the Fed's shadow money manager   Couldn't make this up

XTOD: ....Future historians will marvel at all this. It will seem obvious by 2033, if not sooner, that the pax americana faced a well-coordinated challenge from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea in the early 2020s. The first move was the invasion of Ukraine. The second was the war of Iran’s proxies against Israel. The third will most likely be a Chinese challenge to American primacy in the Indo-Pacific, perhaps — if Xi Jinping is bold — a blockade of Taiwan. 7/10....The pax americana seems to be ending. The fate of Ukraine — of Israel and Taiwan, too — hangs in the balance. I cannot say I am surprised. It was always very likely that the overreach of the Global War on Terror would be requited in this way: with a resurgence of isolationism.

XTOD (this was a pretty epic and long retort to some comments made by OpenAI's Emmett Shear): Emmett, Emmett, Emmett.   I'm not "accusing you of socialism".   I'm pointing out that you just articulated the single most Bolshevik idea ever suggested since an unemployed German intellectual, living off das kapital gains, wrote a book demanding that all investors should be murdered during a mass armed robbery.  https://x.com/Devon_Eriksen_/status/1739993013638623537?s=20