2024 has been off to an interesting start with some interesting headlines both economic and non-economic. On the economic front, we had a Friday Job report that seemed better than expected, though everyone is spent the remainder of the day looking for reasons to dismiss any strength in the report. Then we had ISM Services report showing the services employment index hitting a low not seen since the early part of Covid. Per the ISM press release: "Comments from respondents include: “Remote work is preferred for most, making it difficult to recruit skilled employees, and our skilled employees are leaving for hybrid options” and “Layoffs have increased in the professional services and staffing industries over the past several months as companies try to reduce cost amid the climate of economic uncertainty and decreasing customer demand." Real estate was listed as one of the industries where employment was challenged, go figure. The rest of the economic debate to start the year continues to be focused on whether or not you can have a soft landing and whether or not the Fed has any role in creating a soft landing or whether it was all supply shocks. I guess I'll add the debate over the end of QT to the list, especially given Lorie Logan's Saturday speech where she discussed monitoring the level of the Fed's ON RRP to determine when to slow or stop the pace of QT.
On the non-economic front, Boeing can't seem to get their problems behind them following the weekend's fuselage incident (aka holy crap a door of the plane got ripped off mid-flight and lucky no one got sucked out the of plane). This was the second incredible airplane story of 2024, following the collision in Tokyo where somehow most everyone escaped alive.
If crazy airplane stories aren't your thing you can read something like 10,000 to a million words from Bill Ackman as he fights 'Higher Education' and tries to figure out what actually constitutes plagiarism, what proper citation looks like, and whether and when AI will end all tenured professors careers by uncovering plagiarism.
While there are plenty of political stories, let's not forget two wars going on, one of which appears to be causing major shipping issues. On the positive (I guess?) it does look like a government shutdown might be avoided as there appears to be some agreement on spending that could lead to passage of appropriations bills before the January 19th deadline.
On the week ahead we'll get inflation data as the highlight. CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday.
XTOD: It is 1989, I am not born, Matt Darling is explaining how the median is not the average
It is 2005, I'm 3 years old, Matt Darling is explaining how the median is not the average
It is 2024, I'm 21 years old, Matt Darling is explaining how the median is not the average
XTOD: I want Matt to run for president one day so he can explain to the American public what a median is on the national stage
XTOD: people remember in the back of their brain that mean, median, and mode are 3 different things, one is "vulnerable to outliers" and another isn't, then see a statistic they dislike and go "oh yeah median, that's vulnerable to outliers", and misremember which one isn't vulnerable
XTOD: gonna make a bold prediction and say next year, economic statistics will confuse more people than ever before
XTOD: TUNA SELLS FOR RECORD-BREAKING $789K IN TOKYO, BUYER SAYS, 'I'D BEEN FEELING THAT THE ECONOMY WAS GETTING BETTER (MSN) In Tokyo’s Toyosu fish market, a bluefin tuna has been auctioned for an astonishing 114.24 million yen ($789,000), making it the fourth-highest price in recorded history. Full article:
https://msn.com/en-us/money/companies/tuna-sells-for-record-breaking-789k-in-tokyo-buyer-says-i-d-been-feeling-that-the-economy-was-getting-better/ar-AA1muvxX?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=e89bbb5821df46ac98cc929d5613dab4&ei=65
XTOD: "The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, the country’s second-largest pension fund, may borrow more than $30 billion to help it maintain liquidity without having to sell assets at fire-sale prices..."
XTOD: I love that the nyt deep dive on how the Harvard board turned on Gay is all about conversations taking place entirely at vacation spots for the superrich. ‘And the heiress to the tootsie roll fortune took an urgent call from her lodge in Aspen…’....The thing to understand about all of these lazy entitled pieces of shit is that this is how virtually every big public corporation in America is governed.
XTOD: Here's where I disagree with Krugman. If the inflation of 2021-22 had been *only* due to a supply shock (as in this picture), the economy wouldn't have boomed in 2021-22; we'd have had stagflation. What seems more likely to me is a supply shock AND a demand shock.
XTOD: There is no sin, there is no love, there is no God—there is no teleology whatsoever in Sam Altman’s worldview. The most fight is between “technological-driven growth” and decline. That’s it. That’s the whole future.
Helping people prepare for all the wrong battles.
https://x.com/Rohan65336929/status/1743796699405881370?s=20
https://x.com/RomanianLiberal/status/1743800988522156272?s=20
https://x.com/JosephPolitano/status/1743803086370382019?s=20
https://x.com/vebaccount/status/1743792675935982036?s=20
https://x.com/Fxhedgers/status/1743445304647528484?s=20
https://x.com/choffstein/status/1743327990639927621?s=20
https://x.com/matthewstoller/status/1743700411486200261?s=20
https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/1743750352636424203?s=20
https://x.com/lukeburgis/status/1743461919791464671?s=20
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