The 10Y crossed 4%, only to subsequently rally back to 3.92% while stocks sold off for a second straight session have made for a tough start to 2024. Perhaps the market decided it was getting a little ahead of itself in pricing in complete euphoria at the tail end of 2023 or perhaps it's just really hard to create narratives to correspond with every daily market move. Yesterday's JOLTS data continued to show some softening in the labor market with hiring and quits on the decline. The FOMC minutes reaffirmed that the Fed had likely reached the peak of their policy rate, but there didn't seem to be provide much indication that the Fed was looking to cut aggressively any time soon.
On the day ahead jobless claims will be the main event ahead of Friday's Job's report.
XTOD: Highlight from FOMC minutes: “Several participants noted the risk that, if labor demand were to weaken substantially further, the labor market could transition quickly from a gradual easing to a more abrupt downshift in conditions.” They believe in the mechanics behind Sahm Rule.
XTOD: One thing I find myself shaking my head over pretty much daily is the size of the financial complexity complex v. the ease/simplicity of setting up a reasonable portfolio of cheap index funds.
Why are so many people engaged in making it seem harder than it really is?
XTOD: The single family home is a terrible investment. Low return, high leverage, illiquid, idiosyncratic risk, value depends on local politics, home value falls with local economy and your job. Build "generational wealth" in stocks, which are far more "accessible." Stop subsidizing!
https://x.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1742631010699714666?s=20
https://x.com/christine_benz/status/1742579162139828538?s=20
https://x.com/JohnHCochrane/status/1742579311029391385?s=20
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