Yesterday CPI came in mostly in line with a bit higher than expected core reading. CPI Core came in at 0.3% MoM v. 0.2% est. Rents rising more than expected was a bit of a surprise to most, with OER hitting its highest pace since January. Of course some of the narrative is that housing inflation doesn't really matter, it’s backwards looking, so we should strip this stuff out. In an event, unless something crazy comes about with PPI, seems hard to see the 50bp cut.
In Fed news Bostic violated some trading policies, but what else is new at the Fed. His defense was o was just tracking the Pelosi portfolio.
Stocks were falling until NVDIA wasn't. Yields rose. The 2Y was volatile but rose to 3.66% and the 10Y to 3.67%
ECB rate decision, PPI and Jobless claims on the day ahead.
XTOD: J Powell called supercore CPI "the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation." Yet, he's going ahead with cuts with supercore CPI at over 4.5%. Bottom line in soft-landing there's no reason to own bonds.
XTOD: A lone bonfire ignites on H4L Island
XTOD: Three possible explanations for the painful meltdown in commodities:
- Global growth is slowing hard
- China has hit a brick wall
- Someone (a trading house? A large hedge fund? An investment bank?…) has funded large commodity trades with JPY borrowing and is now being “tapped on the shoulder”
The recent strong daily correlation between the JPY and the oil price leads me to believe that it is the latter…
XTOD: You’re not consuming content; you’re being consumed by a medium
XTOD: This is one of Charlie Munger’s favorite biographies and one of my favorite paragraphs in the book: "Success in life is being a good husband, a good father and you end up being a second father to hundreds of other men and women.
Last night I attended a wedding of a young man from our office.This young man told me that two men had influenced his life, his father and me. That’s worth more than money."
https://x.com/JulianMI2/status/1833875971079840133
https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1833848105420161148
https://x.com/gave_vincent/status/1833779028488229055
https://x.com/lukeburgis/status/1833923002242924559?s=46&t=D2AESCsaw42dAEzgmjXHQA
https://x.com/founderspodcast/status/1833900575311766006?s=46&t=D2AESCsaw42dAEzgmjXHQA
No comments:
Post a Comment