Jobs Day in 'merica. The street is expecting headline job gains of ~185K with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Of course you'll hear all about the effect of things like seasonality, immigration, hurricane Beryl and plenty about how many jobs were in government. While reviewing the data, remember the headline number comes from CES/Establishment Survey while the labor force participation rate and unemployment rate comes from census data, feel free to read a few articles on how immigration may impact employment data. A summer Friday, with rate cut speculation heightened against a backdrop of perceived recession risk, political and geopolitical considerations being repriced, could make for interesting market reactions to this report.
August started with a big down day for equities. After hours Intel got smoked and AMZN was down, while Apple was up. Yields also fell double digits again yesterday, with the 10Y breaches 4% for the first time since Feb. The catalysts include fallouts from yesterday's FOMC, perhaps the "hawkish" BoE rate cut, weaker than expected ISM Mfg, higher than expected jobless claims, positioning ahead of today's Jobs numbers and likely some of the heightened geopolitical risk. The 2Y is at 4.16% whil the 10Y is at 3.98%.
XTOD: Past 3 weeks:
-NATO summit
-Attempted Trump assassination
-RNC + Vance VP pick
-Biden stepping down
-Harris becoming Dem nominee
-Netanyahu visit
-VZ elections
-Hamas/Hezbollah assassinations
-Plea deal for 9/11 attackers
-Biggest prisoner swap deal w/ Russia since Cold War
XTOD: poor guy, we've all been there https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GT54BiDWUAAHw1D?format=jpg&name=900x900
XTOD: Joe Rogan suggests Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election, says "people are giving into the bullsh*t." Rogan pointed to the media's PR work for Harris and argued that their strategy is working.
"She’s gonna win," Rogan said to Michael Malice who disagreed. "Everybody forever was like, 'Kamala Harris is the worst vice president.'" "She’s the least popular vice president of all time, and then in a moment in time, all of a sudden she’s our solution. She’s our hero." "[Now], everybody’s with her. All these social media posts about her. Try Googling a negative story on her, you won’t find one."
"I feel like we are in this very bizarre time where people are giving into the bullsh*t in a way that I never suspected people would before." "They're willing to gaslight themselves."
"I’m saying it because she could [win]. I’m not saying it because I think she’s going to and I’m not saying it because I want her to. I’m just being honest. I could see her winning."
XTOD: The S&P 500 withstood a sell-off in tech to end July 1.13% higher than at the start of the month. With the 10-year rate dropping to 4.09%, the ERP for the index stands at 4.12% and the expected return on stocks is 8.21%. http://Damodaran.com
XTOD: Signs point to the upper-limit being reached for what consumers will spend before looking for alternatives, leading to price pushback hurting company profits. “Top White House economist Jared Bernstein told a room of researchers and reporters Tuesday that price sensitivity would help complete inflation's ‘round trip’ — that is, bring it back to pre-pandemic norms.”
XTOD: We have the meme of the year: At the Olympics shooting, everyone is wearing ear protection, lenses, glasses, and futuristic gear Then he arrives from Turkey, 51 years old, with a t-shirt, hands in his pockets, a serene look, and wins the silver medal 🥈 Unlocking a new level
XTOD: “Show up every single day and do the work.” - Kobe Bryant https://x.com/i/status/1818299747154923658
XTOD: The top 10% of alcohol drinkers in the US consume 74 drinks per week.
[forbes.com/sites/trevorbu… This article does a good job of explaining the flawed methodology of the study that generated this implausible data. It was based on self-reported data (which is unreliable) and multiplied responses uniformly by 1.9. ]
[forbes.com/sites/trevorbu… This article does a good job of explaining the flawed methodology of the study that generated this implausible data. It was based on self-reported data (which is unreliable) and multiplied responses uniformly by 1.9. ]
https://x.com/RobbieGramer/status/1819097908890722545
https://x.com/AndrewStilesUSA/status/1819023327261765707
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1818810173080977584
https://x.com/nomiprins/status/1819071384355487932
https://x.com/mamboitaliano__/status/1818758411632492730
https://x.com/i/status/1818299747154923658
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