Markets await Powell and inflation data as well as the start of earnings season. The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed consumers generally lowering their inflation epxectations, while continuing to show persistently high levels of inflation uncertainty. Little changed in yield land with 2's at 4.62% and 10's at 4.27%
Other than continued speculation over Biden's future, French election fallout, the impact of Hurricane Beryl on oil and gas, I'm sure some Boeing plane had an issue, but beyond the usual, it was a pretty slow market news day (at least in my opinion).
On the day ahead, 10am is Powell in front of Senate Banking committee, 3Y Note at 1pm and Fed's Bowman at 1:30pm.
XTOD: BREAKING: The Federal Reserve is considering a 75 bps rate hike after seeing footage of Michael Rubin's white party in Bridgehampton
XTOD: This is one of the longest streaks ever without a 2% drop for the S&P 500. Of course, looking back further in history this streak could last a lot longer than most think.
XTOD: The immaculate disinflation of 2H 2023 during a period of exceptionally strong nominal GDP was chalked up to a material step up in productivity (GDP/worker). It now seems clear this was in fact due to undercounting workers due to the surge in immigration. Which led to some of our lowest core MoM CPI prints of this cycle. This is what got everyone excited about rate cuts for this year. If we overestimated productivity, by default we underestimated inflation in this period. Immigration may have incorrectly flattered CPI progress. The immigration surge is truly historic and is thus making analysis of the economic data more difficult than it normally would be. I think policymakers should take their time to figure out all of the impacts before making any decisions they may regret, in either direction.
XTOD: Back in January, Blackstone said it's buying Tricon (which owns 35,448 homes) The
@commobserver is now reporting that Tricon will absorb Blackstone-owned Home Partners of America (which owns 26,516 homes) "The majority of HPA [Home Partners of America] staff are being asked to stay on through March 2025 and will receive retention packages that include their salaries, year-end bonuses and severance, plus payments to cover the extension of health care benefits and other outplacement support."
XTOD: Clear writing and clear speaking are simply outputs of clear thinking.
XTOD: Opportunities in life come through people. Who do you need to connect with to gain access to the opportunities you want?
https://x.com/litcapital/status/1810359993163522490
https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1810342189026697315
https://x.com/DannyDayan5/status/1810387435542462969
https://x.com/NewsLambert/status/1810388938676478381
https://x.com/naval/status/1810241925867577403
https://x.com/JamesClear/status/1810298539907354930
No comments:
Post a Comment