Friday's Job's Report showed a beat on the headline NFP, but downward revisions in the prior two months, as well as a increase in the unemployment rate to 4.1% and tepid average hourly earnings made the read of this report as "weak", sending yields lower. Stocks only go up and to the right, but you already knew that. September rate cut odds are building. 2Y is 4.62% and the 10Y is back under 4.30%.
Of course politics has been front and center both domestically and internationally. Calls for Biden to step aside continued following his interview on ABC. The second round of the French elections saw a defeat of the Far Right party led by Marine Le Pen, I'm not enough of an expert in French politics to opine, other than this was a reversal of results expected following the first round last Sunday and now looks like a left/centrist coalition will lead the National Assembly.
Other than that, I guess we'll have to learn whether or not
On the week ahead inflation will highlight data, we'll sell a lot of bonds and Powell will do his semi-annual Humprhey Hawkins testimony:
Monday: No Major Data
Tuesday: Powell Testimony Day 1, other Fedspeak, 3Y Note
Wednesday; Powell Day 2, 10Y Note, more Fedspeak
Thursday: CPI, Jobless Claims, 30Y Note
Friday: PPI and UofM survey
XTOD: Somewhere on a sunny beach is a managing director asking their associate how things are going in the office.
XTOD: "I’m so glad Bobblehead George was a fan fave. No, I don’t get anything for it except joy that 35 years after putting on those glasses people are still enjoying our work. The show was a gift from you to us. Thanks for keeping it alive. Serenity now." - Jason Alexander
XTOD: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Finance Professor, on CNBC: Since the 7 large tech companies have cash flows and earnings, they can be viewed as value stocks. The equity risk premium at 4.11% is the lowest it has been since 2008, before the financial crisis indicating a possible correction
XTOD: To beat the market, you need the ability to identify the 2% of winners that drive gains, a severe allergy to big losers, near-perfect behavior, a reckless disregard for your own career, and a whole lot of good luck. The odds are stacked high against you. @jasonzweigwsj explains how its going this year:
"Stock pickers are doing even worse than usual. In the first half of 2024, according to Morningstar, only 18.2% of actively managed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that compare themselves to the S&P 500 managed to outperform it." https://wsj.com/finance/investing/why-your-fund-manager-cant-beat-todays-stock-market-a5a14688
XTOD: Money should be used as a tool to live a better life, not simply something to make the spreadsheet happy.
XTOD: To do or not to do? To try or not to try? Most people will vote no, whether they consider themselves brave or not. Uncertainty and the prospect of failure can be very scary noises in the shadows. Most people will choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
https://x.com/dougboneparth/status/1809233352622276618
https://x.com/curb_david/status/1810104031856976353
https://x.com/DrDavidKass/status/1809312789615329705
https://x.com/Ritholtz/status/1809254703554863358
https://x.com/TKPPodcast/status/1809351598889447860
https://x.com/tferriss/status/1809230424008261871
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