Month-end meets central banks with the BOJ overnight and the FOMC in the afternoon. Yesterday's data started with a EU GDP data beat, though German growth was negative while their inflation was above estimates. Stateside the JOLTS data showed jobs openings above estimates but measures of labor turnover in terms of quits, layoffs and hiring were below pre-pandemic levels. The low level of quits may be a sign that employees no longer are seeing higher bids for their services away from their current employer.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index survey showed consumers still hate inflation and perhaps this commentary lines up with the JOLTS data: “Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead. Meanwhile, consumers were a bit less positive about current labor and business conditions. Potentially, smaller monthly job additions are weighing on consumers’ assessment of current job availability: while still quite strong, consumers’ assessment of the current labor market situation declined to its lowest level since March 2021.”
Likely more important than data were the Israeli airstrike in Beruit which killed a Hezbollah commander who reportedly had planned the attack that killed 12 in Isreal's Golan Heights. The possibility of an expanding middle-east conflict may lead to further risk-off. Add U.S. airstrikes in Iraq to the list of mid-east risk. And let's not forget Elon vs. Venezuela.
After hours MSFT was down after earnings dissappointed in their cloud business.
On the day ahead we'll see if the FOMC provides any better sense on the likelihood of a September rate cut. I might write a FOMC Recap, I might not.
XTOD: BREAKING: The Magnificent 7 stocks have now erased a combined $2.6 TRILLION of market cap over the last 20 days. That's an average of $125 billion of market cap PER DAY for 20 days sight. Nvidia, $NVDA, alone has erased over $1 trillion in market cap since its high seen one month ago. In other words, the Magnificent 7 have lost as much value as Nvidia's ENTIRE current market cap in 20 days. That's also $200 billion more than every stock in Germany's stock market combined.
What happened to big tech?
XTOD: The new labor market spider chart published by the @AtlantaFed today shows a striking divergence between the private job openings rate and the private hires rate.Turnover (as measured by employee quit rates) has fallen YoY in all sectors, and is now lower than the 2015-2019 average rate in half of major sectors
XTOD: “Go for the pain of discipline because it weighs ounces. The pain of regret weighs tons.” ~ Jim Rohn
XTOD: "You can either lower your goals to match your effort, or you can raise your effort to match your goals." (Coach K)
XTOD: Stop efficiently running meetings you shouldn't be holding at all.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1818386268545245234
https://x.com/juliaonjobs/status/1818329073443336345
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1818070657495716048
https://x.com/CoachBechler/status/1818257986852184272
https://x.com/GregoryMcKeown/status/1818340288752238965
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