Catching up on Dalio latest, he doesn’t believe it is the most likely scenario, but if Trump loses in a close race, he believes that it is probable we see some form of Civil War. Unrelated to that view, at least we think, the equity markets had a rough day yesterday, led by a double digit decline in Tesla shares. Despite the tech led sell-off in stocks, the yield curve steepened and the 2's10's inversion is down to just 13bps. Both Goldman and ex-Goldman (Dudley) are now in the cut rates now camp.
Canada cut 25bps to 4.50% as expected, noted excess supply and cooling shelter cost. The Canadian Dollar is nearing it's weakest in the last year partly driven by the interest rate differtential with the U.S. In other international news, Netanyahu's visit to the U.S. to address Congress was met with plenty of protest in the D.C. area.
In data, home sales fell, higher inventories, smaller trade deficit and better than expected services PMI data. The current question based on the recent data is whether or not the economy is speeding up. Don't believe me look at the various GDP forecast/nowcast, they've all bounced off a low from early July.
On the day ahead it's GDP 2Q, jobless claims and the 7Y auction...and politics.
XTOD (I need someone to buy me this): i choose to believe that the audience for this exists https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1815789118988709888/o1OaYGu5?format=jpg&name=900x900
XTOD: SCOOP: OpenAI may lose $5B this year & may run out of cash in 12 months, unless they raise more $, per analysis@theinformation
Investors should ask: What is their moat? Unique tech? What is their route in profitability when Meta is giving away similar tech for free? Do they have a killer app? Will the tech ever be reliable? What is real and what is just demo?
XTOD: Karine Jean-Pierre just said that the President continues to believe that he can serve four more years and did not withdraw due to his diminished state. "It has nothing to do with his health." ...
XTOD: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 just had their worst drops since 2022
XTOD: A stunning 10% of Cuba’s population — more than a million people — left the island between 2022 and 2023, the head of the country’s national statistics office said during a National Assembly session
XTOD: Blackstone Mortgage REIT Cuts Dividend as Distress Increases @business
#CMBS $BXMT ▪BXMT to repurchase $150 million shares to blunt dividend news
▪Muddy Waters’ Carson Block shorted the trust in December
XTOD: “Think of yourself as dead. You have lived your life. Now, take what's left and live it properly. What doesn't transmit light creates its own darkness.” ― Marcus Aurelius, Meditations
https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1816116071226868085
https://x.com/JonathanTurley/status/1816194871918747777
https://x.com/WSJ/status/1816203727159656817
https://x.com/crampell/status/1816194783511208037
https://x.com/danjmcnamara/status/1816078866814750781
https://x.com/Mythos_Man/status/1816056907477704861
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