Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Daily Economic Update: July 2, 2024

ISM Mfg was below forecast, showing weakness in price pressures and employment, but an increase in new orders. Construction Spending was also below forecast.  On the day ahead it's Powell and JOLTS data.  

It seems like it's been a quiet rise in yields over the last couple of weeks, but the 10Y has been up over 20bps since mid-June and is nearly back to 4.5% The move is the Yen has also been perhaps a little understated in the mainstream media but USD:JPY is over 161.

While the employment picture will be a major economic focus for the week, the political landscape is perhaps a bigger focus.  How much of an impact political uncertainty will have on how businesses investment is the question mark.  On the political front much of the talk has now shifted to Biden securing the nomination as early as mid July.

One place that nothing political or economic is stopping American's is travel.  TSA screenings continue to set records this summer.

XTOD: SECRETARY BLINKEN:  Well, look, I think China’s objectives are clear.  Over time, over the coming decades, they would like to be the leading country, the dominant country, in the international system militarily, economically, diplomatically.  That’s clear.  And if their vision for the world actually matched ours or matched many other countries, that would be one thing.  But they have a different vision, a different vision of what that future looks like https://state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-conversation-on-u-s-foreign-policy-at-the-brookings-institution/

XTOD: Jill Biden is on the July cover of Vogue. Just dropped this AM. 
https://vogue.com/article/first-lady-jill-biden-august-2024-cover-interview

XTOD: I am seeing arguments in favor of hiring, for the highest ranking job in the country, someone completely incompetent at any human task, who would not even qualify for any single job in the same country --not one.   And don't tell me that things are not going downhill.

XTOD: Monkeys and Pedestals: It is a mental model that helps you quit sooner. It boils down to some very good advice.  
- Figure out the hard thing first.  
- Try to solve that as quickly as possible.  
- Beware of false progress.

XTOD: 82% (!) of the American population is headed on vacation this summer and 42% (!!) are going on multiple trips

XTOD: Which of your current habits is least aligned with the type of person you hope to become?

https://x.com/niubi/status/1807854545688559706
https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1807798934472908962
https://x.com/AlexThomp/status/1807725012213735664
https://x.com/readswithravi/status/1807246949956911582
https://x.com/kylascan/status/1807772650246197594
https://x.com/JamesClear/status/1807761856699765114

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