Daily Economic Update: July 17, 2024

Yesterday's data featured a sizeable beat in core retail sales causing many economist to increase their forecast for 2Q GDP.   STL Fed GDP forecast is now back to 2.5%.  Import prices were flat, possibly a good sign for inflation in the U.S. and our neighbor to the north saw falling inflation.  Fed Gov. Kugler signalled some cautious optimism on rate cuts this year. The market is pricing in a Fed rate cut by September.  The 2Y is 4.43% and the 10Y is 4.16%.  In equities the outperformance of small caps of late is catching attention, but nonetheless equities continue to win. 

On the day ahead we get housing starts, industrial production and Fedspeak including Waller. 

XTOD: Russell 2000 ytd gains as of one week ago: +0.9%  Russell 2000 ytd gains as of today: +12.5%

XTOD: kendrick lamar’s ‘not like us’ is now the best selling rap song of 2024 in the US🤯

XTOD: Home Run Derby Anthem singer Ingrid Andress announced that she’s checking herself into rehab

XTOD: Everyone needs one person in the group that can do a good Trump impression. This is on my 2025 to-do list if he wins.  https://x.com/gb1121/status/1813177959777231172

XTOD: “Hear Me…”   Mike Tomlin GOLD “It’s not what you are capable of; it’s what you are willing to do.  Plenty of people are capable.  Fewer people are willing.”   This message is the ultimate TRUTH in sports.   No Deposit - No Return

XTOD: It's not typical to see a Catholic priest behind a DJ booth. But it's where Guilherme Peixoto shines. He rose to fame playing electronic dance music near his village church. Now the 49-year-old is playing at some of the world’s best nightclubs https://reut.rs/3Y302M4

https://x.com/awealthofcs/status/1813305482175500686

https://x.com/Genius/status/1813250376101208307

https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/1813268281513463870

https://x.com/RampCapitalLLC/status/1813212206995062813

https://x.com/gb1121/status/1813177959777231172

https://x.com/Reuters/status/1813030797395304800