Daily Economic Update: June 12, 2024

The big day is here.  Is CPI > FOMC today?  What will the Dots show (2 cuts vs. 3 in March and rising longer-run neutral rate)?  

Yesterday's NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey showed an increase in optimism, albeit still below average, along with rising uncertainty.  My favorite line from the report was this (underline is mine): "The government’s share of GDP has grown as has government employment, but hiring more IRS agents is not going to improve consumer well-being. Unsustainable debt levels, including the national debt, risk destabilizing events in financial markets. And, the election promises to bring major changes in the tax and regulatory environment, regardless of who wins. All of this presents a very uncertain outlook for small business owners and uncertainty is the enemy of progress."

The 10Y Auction looked strong trading 2bps through where WI was trading on strong foreign demand and with it yields fell on the day.  The 10Y ended at 4.41% and the 2Y at 4.85%.  Stocks hit new record highs...Oracle, Apple...AI.

Anyway, just remember this is the most important Wednesday of your career, don't blow it.  

XTOD: Roger Federer: "In tennis, perfection is impossible... In the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches... Now, I have a question for all of you... what percentage of the POINTS do you think I won in those matches? Only 54%. In other words, even top-ranked tennis players win barely more than half of the points they play. When you lose every second point, on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot"

XTOD: I'm one of the few Biden supporters who *does* think that society should prioritize marriage and kids.  Family is the best technology we have for mass-producing meaningfulness. Without family, most people will be left to seek meaning from bullshit jobs or misguided activism.

XTOD: Was curious about fertility demographics people have been discussing, so pulled some data myself this morning.   Even though I knew it, striking how much of the childbirth change is from age 15-25.  Also didn’t appreciate how much the college education trends might explain some of this

XTOD: Big new annual report on kids shows "decades of lost progress" due learning loss during - and even after - Covid.  Math & reading scores keep falling.  Many kids just simply stopped going to school, with nearly 15 million "chronically absent" even post-Covid in 2022.   This while tens of billions of the 2021 "reopen schools" money still hasn't been spent.   Tough but necessary read.  

Keep in mind that no western nation kept kids out of school nearly as long as we did.  Most not even close.    Tough but necessary read.  We owe so much to making it up to the kids. 

2024 KIDS COUNT Data Book - The Annie E. Casey Foundation

XTOD: JUST IN: Tuttle Capital just filed for a Congressional Trading ETF $NPEL  The ETF will invest in the stocks that sitting members of 🇺🇸 Congress and/or their spouses have reported owning through public disclosure filings - Bloomberg

XTOD: In 1958, a 20-year-old Hunter S. Thompson wrote a letter to a friend with his advice on finding his life purpose.  It is a work of art.  5 brilliant lessons on finding purpose (everyone should read this):....Lesson 5: Live by Design, Not Default  You get one shot. Stop playing games by default. 

You have the power to choose how you live your life. That doesn't mean you will choose, but you always have the power to choose.  Find the Ninth Path. Live life by design, not default. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GPtlA3lbsAI8Bhn?format=jpg&name=small

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