Another Jobs Day in 'merica is upon us. Except maybe not for her as Peloton lays off another 15% of their workforce.
Market is looking for a headline jobs print of around 250K, though immigration, a topic Powell discussed this week, is a major wildcard with the possibility for an upside surprise and recently considered a major source of divergence between headline payrolls from the CES/Establishment Survey and the data on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation which comes from the Household Survey and is based on census data. Anyway, feel free to ask a real economist.
Yesterday's nonfarm productivity showed a 0.3% mom increase and a 2.9% YoY increase, but as (or more) importantly increased by 4.7% which was above estimates. In jobless claim data, apparently approximately the exact same number of people file for claims every week.
Stocks traded higher and bond yields fell. The 2Y is 4.88% and 10Y is 4.59%. Apple’s earnings and $110bln buyback led to further equity gains after hours as we head into payrolls.
On the day ahead it's Jobs, PMI's and bring on Fedspeak, including NY Fed's Williams at 815am.
XTOD: The last 13 weeks of initial unemployment claims. It finally moved off 212k, but barely.
Again, we are a $30 trillion economy with over 160 million workers. Unemployment insurance is a state program, meaning there are 50 states with 50 rules, 50 different ways to sign up, and 50 websites. Filling out these forms takes work. That alone should give a variability of more than a thousand or two a week. Unemployment insurance is highly seasonal; little things like a holiday on the week make a difference (see around Feb 16, President's Day, and March 29, Easter). Yet, given all this, these numbers barely move. I'm not accusing anyone of anything. Rather I would like someone from the BLS (who collects the data, seasonally adjusts it, and releases it) to offer an explanation for the lack of volatility. (This is a screenshot from Bloomberg; it must have glitched as April 12 is missing. That was also 208k, same as this week.)
XTOD: The last several weeks have been remarkable in that a series of considerably firmer #inflation, #wage and #economic data points have dramatically re-rated the market-implied probability of
@federalreserve policy rate cuts by year end.
XTOD (I think he read my Dark Matter post...): Amount of attention, digital ink spilling and coverage the FOMC gets is totally out of proportion with the level of signaling it carries. These guys are systematically wrong and literally have no fucking clue what they are doing or where they are heading. They don’t have a plan and keep getting punched in the sack. When inflation was staring right in the face their informed view was not to think about thinking about hiking rates. When inflation set on it’s largest, possibly structural, surge of the last half a century, they labelled it transitory and carried on with unholy QE while driving real rates into deep negative territory. When inflation was about to get sticky and re-accelerate they touted victory in their infamous Dec 23 dovish pivot. Now they have no clue and are saying as much, just waiting for the next data punch. Next is after denying stagflation, to call it transitory. Not sure Trump setting monetary policy would do much worse to be honest. Hell a monkey would do better. And never any accountability.
XTOD: Jerry Seinfeld on why he still works hard: "Because the only thing in life that's really worth having is good skill. Good skill is the greatest possession. The things that money buys are fine. They're good, I like them, but having a skill - I learned this from reading Esquire magazine. They did one issue about Mastery. This is a very Zen Buddhist concept: pursue mastery. That will fulfill your life. You will feel good. I know a lot of rich people. They don't feel good - as you think they should and would - they don't. They're miserable. So I work because if, you don't, in standup comedy, if you don't do it a lot, you stink."
https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1786017610871849053
https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1785958043361972685
https://x.com/RickRieder/status/1786032627130282229
https://x.com/NeckarValue/status/1786044600131404081
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