Refunding announcement showed continued high bill issuance, unchanged from current auction sizes. JOLTS data showed a large decline in job openings, ISM showed weakening activity and really the only economic beat yesterday was in ADP Employment. Of course now of this really mattered as the main event was Powell's presser, which was aptly summed up in this tweet from Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro: "One gear: dovish. Powell says policy is restrictive and the presser ended almost as soon as it started. The 2-year rallies for the 5th straight Fed decision-day." That dovishness and the reduction in QT was enough to send yields lower and stocks higher. The 2Y is back under 5% at 4.96% and the 10Y is 4.63%.
If you'd like a little more on the Fed check out my recap here.
On the day ahead it's Jobless Claims, Productivity & Unit Labor Cost, Factory Orders and Apple earnings.
XTOD: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, fires back at Kendrick Lamar
XTOD: "The Treasury has continued to stick to their prior market guidance of not expecting to increase nominal coupon auction sizes for next several quarters...because if they were to deviate from that and increase, we WILL have a resumption of the term-premium scare..." @Nomura #McE
XTOD: Feed the transcript from today's FOMC press conference to ChatGPT. Here is its summary: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMhLEfzXMAAPbV4?format=png&name=small
XTOD: Apparently, the secret to a long and happy marriage is…proposing at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting? https://wsj.com/finance/berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-romance-25eb77fc?st=npgr0xi3cucb39s via @WSJ
XTOD: “I’ll just work until I have X dollars and then do what I want.” If you don’t define the “what I want” alternate activities, the X figure will increase indefinitely to avoid the fear-inducing uncertainty of the void.
XTOD: The best antidote to burnout is not teaching people coping skills to handle stress. It's redesigning work to reduce stress. The cure for exhaustion is removing overwhelming demands and the norm of self-sacrifice. Healthy workplaces value well-being as much as performance.
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