In a data heavy day, durable goods new orders both headline and core exceeded expectations, while shipments were below expectations and home prices rose more than expected. The S&P Case Shiller home price index showed increasing home prices MoM generally in line with expectations and clocking in at a rate of 6.6% YoY. The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey was slightly below expectations and showed “Consumers’ assessment of the present situation improved in March, but they also became more pessimistic about the future,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. Despite some pessimism in the report, the data showed consumers continuing to reduce their recession odds and still consider jobs to be plentiful.
Stocks ended down for a 3rd straight day while cocoa prices hit new all-time highs. Yield were down slightly with the 2Y at 4.60% and the 10Y at 4.23%. We'll get some of Fed Governor Waller on the day ahead.
In tragic news, the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore following a massive container ship losing power causing it to ultimately hit one of the bridge's support columns, is an abject reminder of uncertainty. Investigations will continue to try to assess what could have been done to prevent this accident and what can be done to prevent these types of accidents from occurring in the future. Certainly some lessons will be learned. I wouldn't be surprised if we find that some of the problems in this disaster were tied to the topics of complexity and tight coupling, but time will tell.
I've written about the topic of uncertainty (and it's close cousin risk) a ton on this blog, you can find those instances here and further find the word "uncertainty" with a good old fashion Ctrl+F search on the page.
XTOD: It’s easier to be lazy than it is to fail. As soon as you actually try you realize how little you have to do to beat the people who do nothing. There are far fewer people who’ve failed than people who were too lazy to try.
XTOD: Is there a known law for a long-life of compounded positive reputation DESTROYED at end (Ala @nntaleb turkey’s life before thanksgiving)?.....Paraphrasing Buffett + PE’s Buffett (and Lux godfather) Carlyle’s Bill Conway “10 years to build a rep 10 seconds to lose it”....Coach Wooden nailed it: Care about your CHARACTER over your REP, because it’s what you really are REP is just what others think you are
XTOD: We put round pizza in a square box and eat it in triangles.
XTOD: Many different methods will deliver training results. The only two non-negotiable factors for success, though, are effort and consistency. Adaptation won't happen unless you force it.
XTOD: Is what I'm about to do today connected to what I'm going to value over the long-term?
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