I wonder if there is a Reddit about trading Reddit shares? There probably is. Reddit and shares of some AI stocks did well while the major indexes closed slightly lower. Yields rose 3-6bps across the curve as Fedspeak from Bostic and Cook leaned slightly more hawkish against the usually dovish Goolsbee. Bostic is on record calling for only one rate cut this year. The 2Y at 4.63% and the 10Y at 4.25% as traders position for markets being closed on Friday as PCE data hits.
Meanwhile as we wait for PCE, it looks like two staples, chocolate and gasoline, will continue to be expensive. Cocoa prices continue to reach new all-time highs due to supply shortages largely related to weather and oil prices are rising related to geopolitical supply concerns.
Away from economics and markets, it was heavy in pop culture news: P. Diddy investigated for human/sex trafficking, Ohtani says he never bet on sports and was stolen from, Trump couldn't post bond but gets more time, Huberman can't manage dating five woman at the same time, and the Terminator had a pacemaker put in.
Today's we'll get durable goods orders (does all the Boeing issues - now with a C-suite shakeup ever show up in this data?) , home price data and some consumer confidence data. We also have the 5Y Note Auction.
XTOD (Andy Constan - who to the best of my knowledge coined "H4L Island"...now leaving): FWIW I have left H4L island and expect NGDP to be lower than longer than expectations. I am sailing in the Economic Slowdown Sea. The only destinations on my journey are Recession Island or Soft Landing island. My guess is the former.
XTOD: A few smart things I've read lately: https://collabfund.com/blog/smart-words-from-smart-people/
XTOD: Imagine working hard to get into a good university, studying to get into a competitive IB job, and toiling away for 90+ hours a week to earn $150-175k in comp after your first year, only to have teenagers yolo shitcoins with no inherent value and gain millions of dollars
XTOD: I don't think it's the price of being an A podcaster—there are many honest ones. It's the price you pay for selling yourself as someone you're not, and making millions off it by engaging in a form of deception that is supported by an oligarchy of deceivers, all of whom emerged in the wake of the pandemic. These were people who knew how to take advantage of other's vulnerability. I don't feel bad for him.
https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1772276864888787415?s=20
https://x.com/morganhousel/status/1772266364742361313?s=20
https://x.com/litcapital/status/1772102592987791768?s=20
https://x.com/lukeburgis/status/1772377373570134078?s=20
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