The last day of posting quotes from the TV series 'The Wire'. The inspiration for using these title quotes was stated here. That post as a whole is probably worth a second read... unfortunately for Orioles fans their playoff run was quite short. Equities have not been spooked to start Halloween following up on solid gains yesterday. Even as equities rose, yields were rising yesterday. Also yesterday, we learned Stanley Druckenmiller has a negative opinion of Janet Yellen and that Janet Yellen will be issuing less Treasuries in the 4Q than the market expected, but still $776 billion.
Today yields start the day lower by 3-5bps with the 2Y ~5.02% and 10Y ~4.82%, spurred in part by lower than anticipated treasury supply, the BOJ's tweak to it's yield curve control being implemented in a 'dovish' way, redefining 1% as a "loose cap" on the 10Y yield. As expected, BOJ held short term rates as -0.1% as they still aren't confident in inflation sustainably hitting 2% there. USD-JPY over 150 at 150.666. EU area inflation came in below estimates this morning at 2.9% yoy.
On the day ahead we get employment cost index data, some housing data and some consumer confidence data.
The month started with strikes front and center, worker strikes that is, and while those seem to be slowly resolving, with UAW closing in on deals, the month concludes with concerns about other strikes, the kind made with missiles and artillery, unfortunately.
On the bright side, unless today is really bad, at least this October did not have a bank panic or stock market crash that rivaled Black Monday or Black Thursday.
If you're not going as Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce for Halloween, you can go as: (via Bloomberg Opinion's Jessica Karl)
XTOD: Have you received an official looking letter in the mail, supposedly from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York – or even the Chairman of the Federal Reserve – saying you’re owed a massive amount of money and all you have to do is call a number to give some vital information and pay a transfer fee before they release it to you? DO NOT call that number! It’s a scam! If you think your personal information has been compromised, contact your bank and local law enforcement immediately!
XTOD: Yeah, the Fed takes money through inflation. It never gives it away. Common sense people.
XTOD: Stan Druckenmiller on bonds: “I am currently short bonds and long the front end”
XTOD: This Gavin Newsom video is something. Dude thinks he's on the Globetrotters. Keeps trying to spin a basketball on his finger and then commits an egregious offensive foul on a little Chinese kid and then wrestles him after he knocked him over.
XTOD: "If the SPX closes below 4288 on Tuesday, it will be its third consecutive monthly decline. It hasn’t been down four straight months since 2011 and hasn’t been down four straight months ending in November since 1946:" BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky
XTOD: ”Defeat is a state of mind; No one is defeated until defeat has been accepted as a reality.” -Bruce Lee
XTOD: Charles Schwab is undergoing mass layoffs today per multiple employees - some laid off employees stating they will be on payroll until January 5th before being terminated. Likely to affect thousands of employees.
XTOD: Given the gap between objective and subjective perceptions of where the US economy stands, a serious question: Can social media amplify only bad news? Any example of good news amplification?
XTOD: Every $1 you cut IRS funding will lose about $2 of revenue.....So that means this bill would add about $30 billion to the deficit.
https://x.com/federalreserve/status/1719069245194035389?s=20
https://x.com/monetization_x/status/1719069512366973120?s=20
https://x.com/Stephen_Geiger/status/1719032318801674260?s=20
https://x.com/stoolpresidente/status/1718802987290693764?s=20
https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1718920579628085417?s=20
https://x.com/brucelee/status/1719068065764393365?s=20
https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1719019171558637824?s=20
https://x.com/ojblanchard1/status/1719015776378573280?s=20
https://x.com/MarcGoldwein/status/1719079522958553124?s=20
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