FOMC week is upon us, with the market pricing in effectively no chance that the Fed adjust policy rates from their current target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent when they make their announcement on Wednesday. Of course markets will again look for clues as to the future path of policy in both the statement and Powell's press conference, but the consensus view seems to be that we are likely at the peak in policy rates.
To start the day yields are up ~3bps with the 2Y at 5.04% and 10Y at 4.87%. Mike Pence drops out of the presidential race already. The similarity named, Mike Prince had his Presidential fate decided in the finale of the tv series Billions (I won’t spoil it).
XTOD: Pretty amazing that there's only a 19% chance of another hike over the next two meetings when Powells favorite inflation number rebounded to 5% annualized.
XTOD: The Fed still should not think that its job of bringing inflation down is done. In fact, there is a real risk that it drifts up to 3.5% or higher. But with long rates and other financial conditions doing much of the work for them no need to be planning any short-term rate hikes.
D is the ratio of debt to GDP
t indexes time
r is the interest rate
g is the growth rate
d is the ratio of the primary deficit to GDP
When r>g this is an explosive difference equation.
Currently we are in this case. This is unsustainable
Possibility 3. Rationing and price controls as we had in WWII. Prices are held down artificially and goods are rationed using coupons for food and fuel. There would be a substantial black market for those who can afford it.
XTOD: The only purpose of saving is to fund productive investment. The problem is that we live in a highly unequal global economy that systemically forces up the ex ante savings of the rich and of surplus countries seeking to externalize their own weak domestic demand.....The way for countries like the US to bring debt under control is not through austerity. It is through a reduction in income inequality and a refusal to absorb the excess savings of surplus economies. Otherwise austerity just means unemployment
XTOD: Personally this seems lost on many but I see an obvious connection between oil’s restraint so far especially in phys (Iran dumping everything they can for USD asap, just as Russia crushed wheat this past year), and crypto strength as Hamas and pals need money. It’s all connected.
XTOD: Imagine being a “long term investor” that didn’t see this coming. If there is a ever a chance for a limit down scenario to occur, Monday is the day.
XTOD: China is massively expanding its military and frequently the technology being used was stolen from the US.
XTOD: JUST IN: New South Park episode blasts Disney and says all their movies “suck now” and specifically blames Lucasfilm president Kathleen Kennedy. Remarkable.“Joining the Panderverse” drops today and all of the main characters have been replaced by minority women, an obvious mockery of the woke film industry. Cartman specifically blames Kathleen Kennedy for “why the Disney movies all suck now.” Kennedy was responsible for overseeing the Star Wars films.
XTOD: Don't let circumstances dictate your life. Don’t let circumstances shape whether you are working out, doing the necessary work, doing personal growth work, or anything else that is PERTINENT to YOU. Bottom line is that you have DREAMS and we can’t let circumstances deter or distract us from where we are going, what we are doing, and what we are about to create. Can you feel me?
XTOD: So goes the leader, so goes the culture. So goes the culture, so goes the company.
XTOD: Broncos celebrate win vs Chiefs with Taylor Swift music 👀
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