Daily Economic Update: August 7, 2023

8/7/2023: Yields up 6-7bps to start the day, 2Y at 4.83 and 10Y at 4.10%. No major reason for the climb in yield, but over the weekend Gov Bowman was "hawkish" saying more rate hikes needed and likely the continued focus on fiscal issues. If you followed the comments in Friday's post the term "fiscal dominance" seems to be going mainstream. Over the weekend MS analyst Mike Wilson used the term (yes, the same bearish Mike Wilson who recently made a mea culpa and flipped bullish after being wrong on equities all year) saying "fiscal dominance - i.e. monetary policy is subject to the whims of fiscal policy" and stating that "the fiscal impulse has returned with a vengance..and allowed the economy to grow faster than forecast." On the week ahead the focus will be on CPI Thursday and PPI Friday with Treasury auctions in between.

Monday: Bostic and Bowman 
Tue: Trade balance, inventories, 3Y note 
Wed: no data, 10Y Note 
Thur: CPI, jobless claims, 30Y bond 
Fri: PPI, UofM

TTOD: MAGA fans suddenly realize that they've shot themselves in the feet with their "Let's Go Brandon" chants as it's revealed that President Biden's "Dark Brandon" campaign merchandise is flying off the shelves — and fueling his reelection. 

TTOD: What’s most impressive about the current state of the labor market — low unemployment, rising real wages, falling inequality — is that Dark Brandon personally created each and every one of the millions of new jobs since he took office. Each job lovingly hand-crafted. 

TTOD: Nominal wage growth appears to be speeding up. Annualized growth for average hourly earnings for private / production & non-supervisory: 1 month: 5.1% / 5.5% 3 months: 4.9% / 5.0% 6 months: 4.4% / 4.8% 12 months: 4.4% / 4.8% 

TTOD: Bills folks. Bills 

TTOD: I think it's funny that a majority of Americans basically never think the stock market is going to go up over the next year even though obviously it does and has gone up most years  

TTOD: Cadillac just priced its new Celestiq electric sedan at a cool $340,000. We’re living in a simulation. 

TTOD: Elon Musk reportedly microdoses ketamine to treat depression and takes full doses of the drug at parties, per the WSJ. 

TTOD: If you were unfairly treated by your employer due to posting or liking something on this platform, we will fund your legal bill. No limit. Please let us know. 

TTOD: Xi airs a new 8-part documentary in China showcasing the PLA military and aggrandizing the unification of Taiwan. This is the psychological realm where Xi carefully drums up public support for the invasion of Taiwan …Xi marches closer to WAR. 

TTOD: How many times has someone been dropped in a baseball fight? I can only remember Mickey Rivers/Bill Lee in 1976. Odor/Bautista came close. Now Ramirez / Tim Anderson. 

Citations to TTOD (in order):

@OccupyDemocrats. "BREAKING: MAGA fans suddenly realize that they've shot themselves in the feet with their "Let's Go Brandon" chants as it's revealed that President Biden's "Dark Brandon" campaign merchandise is flying off the shelves — and fueling his reelection..." Twitter, 4 Aug 2023, https://twitter.com/OccupyDemocrats/status/1687512482049601536?s=20

@mattyglesias (Matthew Yglesias). "What’s most impressive about the current state of the labor market — low unemployment, rising real wages, falling inequality — is that Dark Brandon personally created each and every one of the millions of new jobs since he took office. Each job lovingly hand-crafted." Twitter, 4 Aug 2023, https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1687600356635590656?s=20

@jasonfurman (Jason Furman). "Nominal wage growth appears to be speeding up.  Annualized growth for average hourly earnings for private / production & non-supervisory:  1 month: 5.1% / 5.5%  3 months: 4.9% / 5.0% 6 months: 4.4% / 4.8% 12 months: 4.4% / 4.8%" Twitter, 4 Aug 2023, https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1687496025920196608?s=20

@dampedspring (Andy Constan) "Bills folks. Bills" Twitter, 5 Aug 2023. https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1687961741475430400?s=20

@JosephPolitano (Joey Politano) "I think it's funny that a majority of Americans basically never think the stock market is going to go up over the next year even though obviously it does and has gone up most years", Twitter, 6 Aug 2023 https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1688143268788183040?s=20

@CarDealershipGuy "Cadillac just priced its new Celestiq electric sedan at a cool $340,000.  We’re living in a simulation. (via Automotive News)". Twitter, 4 Aug 2023, https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1687627674254970880?s=20

@unusual_whales "Elon Musk reportedly microdoses ketamine to treat depression and takes full doses of the drug at parties, per the WSJ." Twitter, 5 Aug 2023, https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1687871335824056320?s=20

@elonmusk (Elon Musk). "If you were unfairly treated by your employer due to posting or liking something on this platform, we will fund your legal bill.  No limit.   Please let us know."  Twitter, 5 Aug 2023, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1688022163574439937?s=20

@Jkylebass (Kyle Bass). "Xi airs a new 8-part documentary in China 🇨🇳 showcasing the PLA military and aggrandizing the unification of Taiwan. ‼️ This is the psychological realm where Xi carefully drums up public support for the invasion of Taiwan 🇹🇼…Xi marches closer to WAR. "  Twitter, 4 Aug 2023, https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1687569857582133250?s=20

@BillSimmons (Bill Simmons). "How many times has someone been dropped in a baseball fight? I can only remember Mickey Rivers/Bill Lee in 1976. Odor/Bautista came close. Now Ramirez / Tim Anderson. Waiting on  @GlobeBobRyan  for official answers."  Twitter, 5 Aug 2023, https://twitter.com/BillSimmons/status/1688008656036765696?s=20