Monday, February 24, 2025

Daily Economic Update: February 24, 2025

I almost missed today’s blog post because I came down with “Covid 2.0 (aka Covid +)” which escaped a lab in Wuhan (not yet).  I tried to go through United Healthcare to coordinate treatment but they decided to bill Medicare for a bunch of treatments I didn’t actually need.  What a way to end a week.  As a result I missed my call to discuss the “Mar-A-lago” accord, you know the plan to devalue the U.S. Dollar and simultaneously get China to buy longer-dated treasuries. Now I’ve unanchored my inflation expectations and reported that to the UofM. Anyway, I blame Canada - ever since they beat the U.S. team in the 4 Nation Face Off everything in the news cycle went down hill. There, you have everything you need to know from late last week.


But do not be dismayed, we got Berkshire Hathaway’s annual letter on Saturday morning, nothing beats a coffee and Buffett.  So what did the GOAT have to say? 


TLDR:  Buffett believes in the core tenet of trust, he emphasizes transparency in leadership, urging CEO’s to acknowledge and correct their mistakes quickly, while also espousing the benefits of business instinct over formal education (be wary of flashy hires and managers who believe their own BS).  Despite reporting on the record level of cash at Berkshire, Buffett remains committed to equities over cash, warning of inflation risks.  He reaffirms his commitment to Berkshire's insurance model, highlights his Japanese investments and of course underscores the power of capitalism, savings and long-term compounding.


On Management Responsibilities

  • Buffett opens the letter explaining that he believes an Annual Report carries the responsibility of communicating to investors both the good and bad decisions in a manner that engenders the trust you put in the CEO.

  • “if you start fooling your shareholders, you will soon believe your own baloney and be fooling yourself as well.”

  • There is a level of lamentation about how few companies actually admit their mistakes.  

  • Reflecting on “mistakes” or “errors”, Buffett recalled the advice of the late Charlie Munger, that the cardinal sin related to mistakes is delaying the correction of mistakes - problems cannot be wished away.

  • Buffett shares a tribute to Pete Leigl, owner of Forest River, an RV company that Berkshire acquired in 2005

  • He uses Pete’s story to share that he doesn’t care about where people went to school, believes in lifelong learning and that a large portion of business talent is innate.

  • While Buffett believes in disclosing mistakes, he also knows that a single winning decision can make a huge difference. “Mistakes fade away; winners can forever blossom.”


2024 Performance:

  • Overall performance was better than expected but 53% of the Berkshire operating subsidiaries reported a decline in earnings.

  • Earnings were aided by a large gain in investment income from their massive T-bill portfolio.

  • Despite the weather related events, Buffett described how no “monster” event occurred in 2024, but that such an event could occur any day.

  • Insurance operations had a great year.


Where Berkshire is invested:

  • His “ambidextrous” approach to allocating shareholder capital, where on one hand Berkshire controls 189 operating companies and on the other they own a small interest in a dozen or so large, profitable businesses like Coca Cola, Amex, and Apple.

  • Buffett somewhat claps back at the commentary around the size of their cash position, stating “Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned” and “we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities”

  • His advice to investors is that “Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails.” “Fixed-coupon bonds provide no protection against runaway currency.”  Buffett believes “Businesses, as well as individuals with desired talents, however, will usually find a way to cope with monetary instability as long as their goods or services are desired by the country’s citizenry.”  Over his career he has depended on the success of American business and will continue to make that bet.

  • Buffett discusses the benefits of capitalism, the importance of savings and the magic of long-term compounding.

  • Buffett slips in some advice to politicians, “And never forget that we need you to maintain a stable currency and that result requires both wisdom and vigilance on your part.”


A note on the Property and Casualty Insurance business:

  • Buffett notes how the “money-up-front, loss-payment later” model has benefited Berkshire, allowing them to invest the float. 

  • Buffett expresses confidence that despite growing climate risk, writing one year policies against this risk is manageable. Acknowledging that Berkshire only assumes risk they feel is appropriately priced.

  • Berkshire can financially and psychologically handle extreme losses without blinking.


Berkshire’s Japanese Investments:

  • Buffett believes Berkshire’s investment in ITOCHU, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo are investments in companies that are very similar to Berkshire itself and are for the long-term.

  • He takes a minute to take a subtle jab at U.S. executive compensation, “their top managers are far less aggressive in their compensation programs than their U.S. counterparts.”

  • Buffett discusses that from time to time they borrow Yen at fixed rates only and seek a position of Yen neutrality.


We ended last week with a down day for the major equity indexes. The S&P 500 closed at 6,013 down 1.7%, but the index still remains at valuations that are in the 90th percentile on a P/E basis on a historical basis, with IT being the sector trading at the highest P/E’s. The 2Y yield moved back to 4.20% and the 10Y yield moved back down to 4.43%.


On the week ahead the focus will be on PCE data and Nvidia earnings.

Today: Dallas Fed Mfg, 2Y Note auction
Tue: Home prices, Fedspeak, 5Y note auction

Wed: New Home Sales, 7Y note auction, Fedspeak

Thur: Durable Goods, GDP 2nd Est. Jobless claims, Pending Home Sales

Fri: PCE, Income & Spending


XTOD (You are welcome to read Jim’s entire thread): : 1/16 A thread on The Mar-A-Lago Accord (MALA).  tl:dr  Take it seriously, not literally  The status quo cannot last. If we do nothing, it ends badly. What is the alternative?  Most of it has either already happened, or is underway. We weren't aware of the name.


XTOD: In other words if you want U.S. military security going forward you need to swap your century bonds and manipulate your currency higher

If you don't want our protection we will tariff you to achieve our goals


XTOD: An email was sent out tonight to all federal employees, even those not under the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) or Executive Branch, by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), demanding that they reply to the email with “5 bullets of what you accomplished last week” or face forced resignation. Several agencies and departments, including a number in the Department of Defense, have already instructed their employees not to respond to the email, as they are not under DOGE’s purview or the OPM.


XTOD: Jamie Dimon just sold 33% of his J.P. Morgan stock on February 20th  🤨  Co-CEO Troy Rohrbaugh also sold 20% yesterday.


XTOD: Beta-adjusted gamma. This is a pretty simple thing but worth discussing. 

So ordinarily you think about dollar gamma on your positions - if the underlying goes up by 1%, how much more dollar delta do you pick up?


XTOD: Everyone thinks Europe is finished. In 20 years, they'll wish they had bought in early.   AGI takes over. Productivity is infinite. Everything is automated.  So, tell me: what actually becomes scarce? 

NOT another piece of software — but authentic human experience.

When machines handle everything, what do people crave? Beauty. Meaning. Significance.

And Europe has been accumulating that for centuries.

It's sitting on the most undervalued asset of the AI age:

- 500+ UNESCO World Heritage sites (the US? 25)

- The world's greatest museums

- 50M+ cultural tourists in France alone

- Centuries-old universities, libraries, cafés

- The birthplace of opera, ballet, fine wine

The real arbitrage? Owning land in places machines can't replicate.  In the AI age, people will split into two groups: 

- New "landlords" stacking assets

- New "renters" living off AI welfare (UBI, digital credits, whatever comes next)


XTOD: Warren Buffett: "I think I stay healthy partly by being happy. It really helps if your stomach isn't grinding all the time [because] you're doing things you don't want to do or you're working with people [you don't like]."   "I'll usually sleep 8 hours a night."



https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1893349442293538872

https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1893294640792584509

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1893466912446922884

https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1893101972028285242

https://x.com/bennpeifert/status/1892789658201055714

https://x.com/kejca/status/1892977205547876767


Friday, February 21, 2025

Daily Economic Update: February 21, 2025

It was a down day in equity markets as the S&P 500 fell from record highs as blue chip stalwart Walmart offered up guidance that didn’t live up to market expectations, sending its shares down 6% on the day and dragging some other retail names down with it.

In data, jobless claims were a little above expectations and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index declined (we talked about economic indicators back here).  The internals of the LEI showed a more pessimistic consumer with declining manufacturing hours.

But don’t get too worried (yet) as the six-month and annual growth rates in the LEI's are still trending upwards and we haven’t triggered their 3D warning.  Go ahead, try to explain the duration, depth, and diffusion to your coworkers, they’ll probably just stare blankly, like they were watching a 3D movie without the glasses. Don’t be surprised in a few years when the FOMC news conferences are 3D holograms explaining the duration, depth and diffusion of some economic disaster they likely helped cause.

Over in fixed income, yields were a little changed, with the 2Y at 4.28% and the 10Y at 4.51% as Bessent doesn’t seem overly interested in increasing the duration of the Treasury issuance. In Fedspeak, St. Louis Fed head, Alberto Musalem expressed some concern over the risk of un-anchoring inflation expectations.


The dollar hasn’t exactly been killing it of late, but gold has.  Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke about both the Dollar and Gold yesterday.  With respect to the dollar he indicated that he favors a “strong dollar policy”, but believes China is manipulating their currency.  When it comes to gold, he clarified that “revaluing gold reserves is not what I had in mind.”


There is a saying that almost everything is noise. Obviously we strive to find some signal in the noise and often that is found by zooming out to see the broader patterns and trends because the small incremental changes are so hard to see in the moment, but ultimately compound to have large effects.  One broader pattern that seems to be at play currently is in the realm of international economics.  We talked about trade, but more broadly there is a topic called “Geo-economics”, which is the study of the interaction of geopolitics and economics in foreign relations.  Geo-economics is an attempt to discuss how countries use economic means of power to achieve their strategic objectives.  The term was coined by Edward Luttwak in 1990 who argued that power comes from "disposable capital in lieu of firepower, civilian innovation in lieu of military-technical advancement, and market penetration in lieu of garrisons and bases".  My personal introduction to the subject was via the book “Geo-Economics” by research analyst and former chief investment officerJoachim Klement.


I bring up the topic today because it seems to be a topic that is part of a pattern that has been playing out over many years now.  This week we all see the headlines about Ukraine and obviously China is always front and center, but in the headlines we tend to get myopic and can easily get trapped in the noise.  There are a few voices out there that help capture the broader trends, an example being Ray Dalio’s work, “The Changing World Order”, that attempts to provide deeper context to the barrage of headlines, but it is easy to have our attention stolen and focus on a trivial issue and miss the vital signals. I won’t write today about the various geo-economic forces between the U.S. and Russia, or the U.S. and China, but the message is to step back and in some ways get back to basics on what geo-economic risks are important and can possibly be quantified and what might be the impact on various assets.  What are sources of actual meaningful data, not just headlines that matter?  I don’t have all of the answers, but there are some geopolitical risk indexes and economic policy uncertainty indexes that might be useful.  From an investment standpoint it’s always difficult to discern what’s priced in and whether risk-premiums are appropriate, I'll leave it to you to decide.

On the day ahead it’s S&P PMI’s, Existing Home Sales, UofM Feb (final) and whatever news comes out about tariffs or whatever else.


XTOD: Satya is Out   TLDR: MSFT doesn’t believe in AGI, wary of overinvestment, OpenAI partnership is over
A. AI and AGI are overhyped  

- “Us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me. The real benchmark is: the world growing at 10%.”

B. Very negative on more capex spend from MSFT

- “[If you look at the Industrial Revolution] there was a lot of money lost”

- “…countries are going to deploy capital… I'm so excited to be a leaser… I build a lot, I lease a lot.“

C. Value in AI is in infra where there is overbuild, and B2C apps which OpenAI has won, negative on model layer 

- “in consumer, in some categories, there may be some winner-take-all network effect. ChatGPT is a great example [of a] at-scale consumer property that has already got real escape velocity”

- “[in enterprise] buyers will not tolerate winner-take-all. … where the buyer is a corporation, an enterprise, an IT department, they will want multiple suppliers.. That is what will happen even on the model side.”

- “In the model layer, one is models need ultimately to run on some hyperscale compute.”

Opinion 

————

1. Satya is calling the bubble in buildout. The crazy people like govts are entering the game. He’s happy to lease from them when they overbuild. His own capex spend is capped 

2. He’s disappointed in the OpenAI partnership - he sees them as having built a great consumer app for themselves with dominance in the category, but models for enterprise usage have gotten commoditized.  

3. He’s sooo done with the AGI talk. If you can’t get to 10% global growth your AGI talk is meaningless to him 

4. He’s backing MSFT from the capex precipice. It’s funny because he certainly did make Google dance, and now they’re committed to insane capex. But he’s outta here 

One of the most meaningful @dwarkesh_sp  interviews so far


XTOD: The last 24 hours has had SO much tech news.

— Microsoft Majorana 1 quantum chip

— Google AI co-scientist

— xAI Grok 3 model release

— Clone musculoskeleton

— Claude reasoning coming soon

— Arc institute biological model

— Sakana AI CUDA kernel optimizer


XTOD: BESSENT SIGNALS DOLLAR POLICY CHANGE 

BESSENT Wants the Chinese to play their part in a global rebalancing. 

Threading the eye of a needle, the US Administration wants strong dollar fundamentals but a drop in its value.  This will have huge repercussions across all assets 

As clear a message as ever there was one. There is a deal to devalue the “strong dollar” especially bs the RMB. This will have massive reverberations on risk assets. The dollar will drop precipitously. Stocks across the board will get a huge boost as global growth rises in a weaker dollar environment. The question is whether China and the US can come to some for of agreement where the trade off between hostile trade processes / tariffs is  sufficient to allow Chinese and other central banks buy US bonds. To be clear if that trade off can be found, we’ll see a massive reallocation out of gold and into US bonds. The message  rhe Trump administration are sending on the debt/deficit might with foreign CB participation at increasingly large  US debt auctions might be enough to stop US 10’s breaking 5%. One other dimension that is profoundly important is the recent focus by Xi on reinvigorating the private sector ( look where Chinese tech stocks were when Jack Ma was taken in for reprogramming ) and today.

In recent days we’ve also had a commitment to support consumption. 

In my mind Chinese tech stocks will continue to confound global investors where there is a massive underweight. Unfortunately the anti China hubris and invective means many are still way behind the 🎱on long China tech. 

So much lower dollar across the board.

I’m bearish gold 

I’m bullish US bonds but prefer buying nearer 5%, but you have to have some here.

Long China tech and the Mag 7.


XTOD: Roughly half the IRS agents being laid off are in the division that handles filings from small business owners and the self-employed, according to CBS.  Notable: Business owners and the self-employed are responsible for a massive chunk of tax dodging each year.


XTOD:“Think of how stupid the average person is and then realize half of them are stupider than that.”  - George Carlin



https://x.com/8teAPi/status/1892383248661274699

https://x.com/deedydas/status/1892456208466108527

https://x.com/CurrencyWar1/status/1892557401896685950

https://x.com/JHWeissmann/status/1892639316569939969

https://x.com/Super70sSports/status/1892594419196440785


Thursday, February 20, 2025

Daily Economic Update: February 20, 2025

Another record close for the S&P 500 at 6,144.  Despite the record highs, the equity performance has been relatively lackluster. It also seems like there is a decent amount of sector rotation going on beneath the surface.  If you want to dig into that there are probably better blogs and articles focused on the specific sector performance of late.  In the bond market, despite the threat of 25% tariffs on autos, semis, and pharmaceuticals, yields fell, with the 2Y treasury yield dipping back under 4.30 to 4.27% and the 10Y falling back to 4.54%. 


It was a day that ended in “y” so tariffs were in the headlines, however, there appears to be a shift in focus from the talking heads when it comes to the tariff topic. Sure inflation is still a big part of the narrative, but increasingly the talk seems to be centered on the impact on economic growth.  


Away from tariffs, but sticking close to the Trump Administration, DOGE has published their website which touts $55 billion in savings to date, but apparently only details around $8 billion. Much of the DOGE media attention has been focused on what was identified as $8 billion saved on a DEI contract, which turned out to be a typo or oversight and is really only an $8 million.  In fairness to DOGE an earlier version of the canceled contract had stated $8 billion as the amount, but it was definitely corrected and is only $8 million.  This has obviously been a source of fodder for all those who seem to hate DOGE.  Whether you agree with DOGE or not, it will be interesting to see how they deal with keeping this “wall of receipts” up to date and how they will account for Federal layoffs/buyouts and deal with things like canceled contracts that the government is still responsible for paying some portion of, amongst other cases.  These savings become increasingly important as Trump claims to want to give 20% of the savings to Americans, presumably through checks of some sort.

The Minutes of the FOMC meeting held on January 28-29, 2025 were released yesterday.  I’ll do my best to summarize them for you here. [Paraphrasing the Fed]:  Besides that stubborn inflation problem, everything looks good to us. In addition, please ignore the super-tight credit spreads and super low equity risk premium. We at the Fed are sure we’ve got no risks to financial stability.  And because we have more access to data than everyone and a track record that is pretty bad at forecasting, you should feel comforted that we have no clue about the scope, timing, and potential economic impacts of possible changes to trade, immigration, and fiscal policies. In the meantime, sit back until March 19th and don’t worry we’ve got this.


Jobless claims and Fedspeak on the day ahead.

XTOD: Dave Portnoy(@stoolpresidente) created $Greed and bought 357.92M $Greed (35.79% of the total supply).   He sold all $357.92M $Greed in a single transaction, causing the price of $Greed to crash by 99%.  And he made ~$258K from $Greed.  Next, Dave Portnoy created $Greed2 and currently holds 268.25M $Greed2(26.8% of the total supply). Keep your funds safe and be aware of risks!


XTOD: Imagine it’s 2035 and you’re looking back at 2025. What do you think is going to be glaringly obvious by then that isn’t obvious to most people now?


XTOD: We have a new report out, "Probabilities and Payoffs: The Practicalities and Psychology of Expected Value." We discuss some of the issues with the calculation of expected value, what the payoff picture means for investing, the implications of volatility drag, the psychology of dealing with probabilities and payoffs, and how these ideas can be helpful for investing in various asset classes.  2/Here's a link to the report: https://morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_probabilitiesandpayoffs.pdf


XTOD: Palantir taking a hit after everyone finally realized no one knows what the fuck this company does


XTOD: I've spent the last 8 months traveling to 20+ states, talking to young people about how they see their economic futures. I wrote about my findings (link below).  Gen Z faces a double disruption: (1) AI-driven technological change + (2) institutional instability. When I talk to young people, they're not just worried about finding jobs, they're worried whether "careers" as we know them will exist in 5 years.  We're seeing a version of the barbell strategy in how young people approach their futures. On one end, people are choosing trades over college debt. On the other, people are betting everything on creator economy/crypto/AI startups etc etc. The middle path exists, but it's increasingly blurry.  This shapes identity. When a single viral TikTok can outperform a year's salary, and traditional credentials lose value faster than you can earn them, young people aren't just changing careers—they're developing fundamentally different relationships with economic reality.  When I talk to people across the country, their concerns are greater than traditional political divisions. They're wrestling with questions of identity, meaning, and community in a world where traditional narratives about success and stability no longer hold.  What looks like a conservative shift among young voters might actually be something more foundational: a generation's attempt to navigate a world where institutions promise stability they can't deliver, where algorithms offer opportunity without security, and where the very nature of work and worth is being redefined. It’s constantly evolving, and it’s not just politics - it’s the very nature of self being called into question. Link in next post. https://t.co/fruEznSL8B


https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1892048208618193014

https://x.com/shivon/status/1891981099955355678

https://x.com/mjmauboussin/status/1892222741668925620

https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/1892316835539722354

https://x.com/kylascan/status/1892237843139018979


Wednesday, February 19, 2025

Daily Economic Update: February 19, 2025

Yields rose and stocks found a way to set a new record high.  The S&P finished at 6,129, despite Meta snapping its winning streak.  The 2Y ended the day at 4.31% and the 10Y reclaimed 4.50, now yielding 4.56%.


There was little in the way of tangible data, but home builder sentiment fell as tariff concerns on the cost side.


Gold hit new record highs at 2,934. Gold was also in the news as Elon toys with the idea of auditing Fort Knox at the urging of Rand Paul.


I’d write more, but I gave you a decent amount yesterday, did you read it all?  If so and you’re bored, use the search function and search for something like “uncertainty”.


On the day ahead we get new housing starts, FOMC Minutes and the 20Y auction.


XTOD: Pershing Square has submitted a proposal to Howard Hughes Holdings (NYSE: HHH) http://howardhughes.com to acquire 10 million newly issued shares of the company at $90 per share.  When combined with the 18.9 million shares that are currently held by the Pershing Square Funds, we will own 48% of the company.   If the transaction goes forward, I will become Chairman and CEO, Ryan Israel, CIO, and Ben Hakim President, and we will make available the full resources of Pershing Square to HHH to build a diversified holding company, or one could say, a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway.  

The new HHH will acquire controlling interests in private and public companies that meet Pershing Square's criteria for business quality.  HHH's principal subsidiary, Howard Hughes Corporation, led by David O'Reilly CEO, will continue on its mission and strategic plan to develop, grow, and own small 'cities,' or master planned communities. HHH's major holdings include the Woodlands in Houston, Summerlin in Las Vegas, Teravalis in Phoenix, and a 60-acre condominium development project on Waikiki Beach in Hawaii called Ward Village. 

Owning small and growing MPCs that will eventually become large cities in the best pro-business markets in the country is a great long-term business.  It's a lot better than a dying textile company.  You can learn the details about the transaction here: https://businesswire.com/news/home/20250218932320/en/Pershing-Square-Announces-Revised-Proposal-to-Howard-Hughes-Holdings  We look forward to sharing more about the story tomorrow at 9am EST.  The presentation will stream live from my X account 

@BillAckman


XTOD: Bill, why are you asking to get paid 1.5% of HHH's mkt cap every year? This is obviously not the way Buffett does it.


XTOD: "why shouldn't I charge a fee on market cap and call myself the next Warren Buffett?"


XTOD: Worth noting that all the recent news over plane crashes is probably just the result of attention bias Plane crashes are still on a downward trend  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GkFizhBWEAA745U?format=png&name=small


XTOD: Three questions determine 99% of the happiness in your life:

1. What am I working on and why? 

2. Who am I spending time with and why?

3. How well am I treating my body and why? 

Everything else is noise.

.

https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1891957378603491339

https://x.com/Seawolfcap/status/1891960752027627890

https://x.com/FrederikNeckar/status/1891985556449460422

https://x.com/IAmMarkManson/status/1891851918575599955



Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Daily Economic Update: February 18, 2025

As we recover from Valentine’s Day and a President’s Day lengthened weekend, we enter the week with the S&P at 6,114, the 2Y Treasury yielding 4.26% and the 10Y Treasury yielding 4.48%.  


Over the weekend SNL celebrated 50 years with some incredible performances and skits. While this blog will likely never make it to the 50 year mark (let alone 5 year mark), it has almost made it to the 50 day mark of 2025 and that’s a feat worth celebrating.  I couldn’t get Sir Paul McCartney to guest write today and Bill Murray wouldn’t do a top 10 for me, so you’re stuck with my best attempt to make a mildly entertaining list of topics or narratives that define the first 50-days of 2025.
T - tariffs, duh. You can add “reciprocal” in front to make it more fun too.

A - A.I., remember DeepSeek?

R - r-star of course.  I know the Fed forgets it, but I don’t.

I - inflation, did it ever really go away?

F - Federal Reserve, that last meeting, useless.

F - fiscal policy, unsustainable?


I guess Tariff is one of the best words in the dictionary.


We concluded last week’s economic data with a weak retail sales data point, which is already forgotten.  The real narratives of the last week are twofold (and I’m using “everyone” the way my kids use “everyone”).

First, everyone is now an expert in the GDP equation. So current narrative number 1 is centered on how reduced government spending and reduced government employment will “automatically” reduce GDP…because math, duh…G goes down.  Of course most of the thinking you find related to the current narrative stops at this first order and gives no consideration to what comes next, or in other words how the private sector responds.  A person laid off from a government job, do they collect unemployment (a government spend) or do they get a job in the private sector?  The bottom line is there is a lot to think through in terms of the impact on GDP.  Could there be demand side contractions due to government layoffs?  What does private sector absorption of those people look like?  What about increased entrepreneurship as a possibility?  What about the possibility that the laid off employee is way more productive in the private sector?  Ultimately productivity is a major factor in Real economic growth.

Second, everyone is mapping the current inflation prints to the inflation prints of the 1970s and writing their own opinions as to whether we’ll get a second inflation spike or not.  It’s fun, but since you can get the best economist in the world together in a room and it’s likely they will disagree about what caused inflation in the first place and what policies are most effective at curing inflation in the second place, the whole discussion just seems like media fodder.  I say that not to dismiss the risk of inflation rebounding, but to reiterate that the whole narrative should likely be couched as a discussion about risk, not simply passing around charts that overlay two time periods on top of each other as many are wont to do.


The week ahead in data is a slow one, so you’ll have to look to the Administration and DOGE for entertainment....and they probably won't dissappoint.


Today: Empire Mfg. Fedspeak

Wed.: Housing starts, building permits, FOMC Minutes, 20Y Bond Auction

Thur: Jobless claims, Fedspeak

Fri:  S&P PMI’s, Existing Home Sales, UofM Feb (final)


XTOD: NBA Player- “I can’t play in the back to back because my knee is a little sore 😖” 

NHL Player- “I am willing to die for my country in this exhibition”


XTOD: 'll admit I am not sure what @riteshmjn's (or Luke's) "second derivative" is here. I will, however, point out that if the USG suddenly stops paying X% of GDP into the economy, it does not mean the US GDP is instantly and permanently downsized X%.


XTOD: Zero chance the Dimon audio "leak" is unintentional. Zero.   It's the recruitment ad for the people who will replace the people who are huffy about it


XTOD: Meta stock has yet to have a down day since Zuck got caught starring at the cleavage


XTOD: “The universe wants you to be typical- in a thousand ways it pulls at you. Don’t let it happen.”


https://x.com/bigcontentguy/status/1890950449232011407

https://x.com/bauhiniacapital/status/1891075003203920039

https://x.com/HedgeDirty/status/1890263635274133550

https://x.com/allstarcharts/status/1890849977192022115

https://x.com/ImadeIyamu/status/1890628283865186717


Daily Economic Update: June 6, 2025

Broken Bromance Trump and Xi talk, but Trump and Musk spar.  I don’t know which headline matters more for markets, but shares of Tesla didn’...