It was a day that ended in “y” so tariffs were in the headlines, however, there appears to be a shift in focus from the talking heads when it comes to the tariff topic. Sure inflation is still a big part of the narrative, but increasingly the talk seems to be centered on the impact on economic growth.
Away from tariffs, but sticking close to the Trump Administration, DOGE has published their website which touts $55 billion in savings to date, but apparently only details around $8 billion. Much of the DOGE media attention has been focused on what was identified as $8 billion saved on a DEI contract, which turned out to be a typo or oversight and is really only an $8 million. In fairness to DOGE an earlier version of the canceled contract had stated $8 billion as the amount, but it was definitely corrected and is only $8 million. This has obviously been a source of fodder for all those who seem to hate DOGE. Whether you agree with DOGE or not, it will be interesting to see how they deal with keeping this “wall of receipts” up to date and how they will account for Federal layoffs/buyouts and deal with things like canceled contracts that the government is still responsible for paying some portion of, amongst other cases. These savings become increasingly important as Trump claims to want to give 20% of the savings to Americans, presumably through checks of some sort.
The Minutes of the FOMC meeting held on January 28-29, 2025 were released yesterday. I’ll do my best to summarize them for you here. [Paraphrasing the Fed]: Besides that stubborn inflation problem, everything looks good to us. In addition, please ignore the super-tight credit spreads and super low equity risk premium. We at the Fed are sure we’ve got no risks to financial stability. And because we have more access to data than everyone and a track record that is pretty bad at forecasting, you should feel comforted that we have no clue about the scope, timing, and potential economic impacts of possible changes to trade, immigration, and fiscal policies. In the meantime, sit back until March 19th and don’t worry we’ve got this.
Jobless claims and Fedspeak on the day ahead.
XTOD: Dave Portnoy(@stoolpresidente) created $Greed and bought 357.92M $Greed (35.79% of the total supply). He sold all $357.92M $Greed in a single transaction, causing the price of $Greed to crash by 99%. And he made ~$258K from $Greed. Next, Dave Portnoy created $Greed2 and currently holds 268.25M $Greed2(26.8% of the total supply). Keep your funds safe and be aware of risks!
XTOD: Imagine it’s 2035 and you’re looking back at 2025. What do you think is going to be glaringly obvious by then that isn’t obvious to most people now?
XTOD: We have a new report out, "Probabilities and Payoffs: The Practicalities and Psychology of Expected Value." We discuss some of the issues with the calculation of expected value, what the payoff picture means for investing, the implications of volatility drag, the psychology of dealing with probabilities and payoffs, and how these ideas can be helpful for investing in various asset classes. 2/Here's a link to the report: https://morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_probabilitiesandpayoffs.pdf
XTOD: Palantir taking a hit after everyone finally realized no one knows what the fuck this company does
XTOD: I've spent the last 8 months traveling to 20+ states, talking to young people about how they see their economic futures. I wrote about my findings (link below). Gen Z faces a double disruption: (1) AI-driven technological change + (2) institutional instability. When I talk to young people, they're not just worried about finding jobs, they're worried whether "careers" as we know them will exist in 5 years. We're seeing a version of the barbell strategy in how young people approach their futures. On one end, people are choosing trades over college debt. On the other, people are betting everything on creator economy/crypto/AI startups etc etc. The middle path exists, but it's increasingly blurry. This shapes identity. When a single viral TikTok can outperform a year's salary, and traditional credentials lose value faster than you can earn them, young people aren't just changing careers—they're developing fundamentally different relationships with economic reality. When I talk to people across the country, their concerns are greater than traditional political divisions. They're wrestling with questions of identity, meaning, and community in a world where traditional narratives about success and stability no longer hold. What looks like a conservative shift among young voters might actually be something more foundational: a generation's attempt to navigate a world where institutions promise stability they can't deliver, where algorithms offer opportunity without security, and where the very nature of work and worth is being redefined. It’s constantly evolving, and it’s not just politics - it’s the very nature of self being called into question. Link in next post. https://t.co/fruEznSL8B
https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1892048208618193014
https://x.com/shivon/status/1891981099955355678
https://x.com/mjmauboussin/status/1892222741668925620
https://x.com/alifarhat79/status/1892316835539722354
https://x.com/kylascan/status/1892237843139018979
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