Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: Remembering Munger - Inversion

 Edward Quince (EQ): Charlie, you often advocate for thinking backward, or using "inversion," to solve problems. Rather than seeking brilliant success, you focus on avoiding catastrophic failure. Can you explain why trying to be merely "not stupid" has been such a successful strategy?

Charlie Munger (CM): It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. Avoiding terrible mistakes prevents you from risking permanent loss of capital.

EQ: Many investors strive to be brilliant; they want the spectacular home run. But you suggest that chasing brilliance can actually lead to the kind of serious error you seek to avoid.

CM: Exactly. The strong swimmers often drown. We often see intelligence overridden by ego, insecurity, immorality, bad incentives, or impatience. That overconfidence and delusion of omnipotence can lead to taking unwarranted risks. This is why if you refuse to accept anything but the best you very often get it, but only if you avoid the mistakes that take you out of the game.

EQ: If the primary goal is avoiding stupidity, what is the investor’s most important defense?

CM: You don't have to be brilliant, only a little bit wiser than the other guys, on average, for a long, long time. The key is to be extremely clear about the limits of your knowledge. It's hardly a competence if you don't know the edge of it. If you have a misapprehension regarding your own competency, that means you lack competency. You're going to make terrible mistakes.

EQ: So, investing successfully is less about finding genius solutions and more about maintaining discipline over time.

CM: The goal is to achieve satisfactory long-term results by focusing on process versus outcome. A majority of life’s errors are caused by forgetting what one is really trying to do. This requires discipline and patience. We are not big fans of résumés; we focus on brains, passion, and integrity.

The Edward Quince Takeaway

Focus on avoiding mistakes that lead to permanent capital loss, prioritizing "consistently not stupid" behavior over attempts at spectacular brilliance. Cultivate humility, rigorously define the edge of your competency, and recognize that superior results are built slowly through disciplined non-action, because the big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: Remembering Munger - Continuous Learning

Edward Quince (EQ): Charlie, welcome. You and Warren Buffett have famously spent decades reading and thinking. For someone starting their career, how critical is the commitment to continuous, daily learning in achieving long-term success, both financially and personally?

Charlie Munger (CM): It is fundamental. The game of life is the game of everlasting learning. At least it is if you want to win. You should spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. The truly wise people I have known are constant readers; In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn't read all the time — none, zero.

EQ: In a market saturated with opinions and news, what should that learning focus on? Should we try to read everything?

CM: The goal is to cognitively own a great book rather than just reading it. We should seek to compound knowledge faster than money. The core process is a multidisciplinary pursuit of wisdom. I paid no attention to the territorial boundaries of academic disciplines and I just grabbed all the big ideas that I could. If you skillfully follow this multidisciplinary path, you will never wish to come back.

EQ: That intellectual rigor—the ability to grasp ideas from various fields—seems to be key to generating superior insights.

CM: Absolutely. The first rule is that you can't really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang 'em back. Real, true learning is acquired on the job. You must combine natural gifts with dedication and effort. True excellence comes from combining gifts with dedication and effort.

EQ: Lastly, beyond the sheer volume of material, what attitude must accompany this relentless drive to learn?

CM: You must master desire. The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more. We should recognize that we must constantly strive to get a little smarter every day.

The Edward Quince Takeaway

Treat every day as an opportunity to become wiser than you were yesterday, focusing on compounding knowledge through continuous reading and multidisciplinary study. The real advantage in life and investing is gained not by remembering isolated facts, but by possessing deep understanding and applying simple ideas seriously.

 

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites : The Thanksgiving Series - The Advantage of Being Consistently Not Stupid

 The ultimate goal of investing is not to look brilliant—it’s to avoid looking extinct.

Catastrophic failure is almost always the result of a single bad assumption married to a long period of comfort. This is how the “permanently high plateau” crowd always earns their reminder.

Charlie Munger distilled the antidote into one unforgettable maxim:
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage we’ve gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

This is the anti-Degen worldview:
Avoid ruin.
Stay solvent.
Don’t interrupt compounding.
Be boring.
Let time do the heavy lifting.

Nomad Investment Partners mastered this. They weren’t chasing hot dots. They were playing the longest game in the room, powered by “the aggregate patience of its Partners.”

Compare that to the febezzle—the period when everyone feels wealthy because prices are rising and fees are flowing. Emotional wealth, not actual wealth. The hangover is always included.

Financial Takeaway:
The job is not to predict the future.
The job is to avoid the future that ends your journey.

Build your process around not blowing up, and the compounding will take care of itself.

This Thanksgiving, give thanks for the underrated superpower of survival.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: The Thanksgiving Series - Why You Must Pay for a Margin of Safety

Happy Thanksgiving!  

If the future is unknowable—and it is—then what is an investor to do?

Predict harder?
Model with more decimals?
Channel your inner clairvoyant?

No.
You buy a Margin of Safety.
You pay the price of uncertainty upfront, not at the crash site.

Ben Graham’s enduring genius is simple:
Margin of Safety exists to make precise forecasting unnecessary.
It is humility converted into portfolio construction.

Because the greatest danger in markets is not ignorance.
It’s the things we’re certain about that are dead wrong.

Mark Twain captured it beautifully:
“It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

Margin of Safety also means keeping flexibility—liquidity you didn’t deploy, leverage you didn’t take, options you preserved for when (not if) reality surprises you.

Financial Takeaway:
Survival requires humility.
Protection > Prediction.

Margin of Safety is not a constraint; it is the admission price for staying in the game long enough for your ideas to matter.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: The Thanksgiving Series - Taleb’s Turkey and the Black Swan of Certainty

 Ah yes—Thanksgiving. A time for family, gratitude, and the annual retelling of the greatest parable in modern finance: Taleb’s Turkey, patron saint of naïve extrapolation.

The turkey is fed every day.
Every feeding reinforces its belief in a benevolent, orderly universe.
Right up until the afternoon before Thanksgiving, when its philosophical framework undergoes a sudden… revision.

Taleb’s punchline:
“The turkey’s feeling of safety peaked precisely when the risk was highest.”

This is how financial markets behave before Minsky moments.
The longer the calm, the deeper the complacency.
The more stable the environment, the more fragile it becomes.

We confuse “never seen” with “impossible.”
We mistake “historically safe” for “permanently safe.”
We fall in love with our own data sets.

Until we don’t.

Financial Takeaway:
This Thanksgiving, learn from the turkey—by doing the opposite of the turkey.
Stability breeds overconfidence.
Overconfidence breeds fragility.

When everything feels safe, tighten your helmet strap.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: The Thanksgiving Series: The Comfort of Familiarity — Ignoring the World That Just Changed

 One of the great Thanksgiving traditions is pretending the same recipes will work forever. Markets do this too.

Our brains like familiarity. When nothing bad has happened recently, we assume nothing bad will happen soon. This is known as the familiarity heuristic, though “emotional laziness” also works.

Extended calm seduces us into thinking we understand the landscape—right up until the landscape shifts beneath our feet.

“Often we don’t realize the world is changing until long after it has changed.”

Today’s economic environment is full of shifting tectonic plates: labor dynamics, energy transitions, geopolitics, technology, supply chains. Central bankers say the quiet part out loud now: the traditional transmission mechanisms may no longer work like they used to.

And when a regime change arrives, your old assumptions become liabilities.
That beloved negative stock-bond correlation?
Yeah, it may take its Thanksgiving break indefinitely.

Financial Takeaway:
Stability is not safety. Familiarity is not knowledge.
The snowpack looks peaceful—until the avalanche.

We need to fight our instinct for comfort and remember the real job of risk management isn’t predicting the future; it’s building resilience for the futures we didn’t predict.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: The Thanksgiving Series: The Deceptive Calm — Why Observed Frequencies Betray Us

Welcome back to the digital saloon, where the turkey isn’t the only thing getting carved this week. As we drift toward a holiday built on gratitude (and stuffing), let’s give thanks for something else entirely: the humbling reminder that the past is a terrible forecaster of the future.

Modern finance operates under a quiet delusion:
that what we’ve observed is the full menu of what can happen.

It isn’t.

As Elroy Dimson famously put it:
“Risk means more things can happen than will happen.”
A line so simple that most financial models immediately ignore it.

Relying on observed frequencies—the stuff we can neatly count and chart—creates the illusion of certainty. It tells us the world is calm, stable, and predictable. A lovely story, completely false.

The markets live not in the tidy middle of the bell curve but in the uncharted corners. The improbable disasters. The “this wasn’t supposed to happen” events.
If you’ve ever wondered why models blow up exactly when you need them not to—this is why. They are backward-looking by design.

Financial Takeaway:
Don’t confuse the narrow sliver of reality you’ve observed with the full distribution of possibilities. The world is constantly changing, and sometimes the thing that “never happens” shows up precisely because everyone believes it can’t.

Be grateful—but don’t be complacent.

Edward Quince's Wisdom Bites: The Inverse Degen Trader pt.5

 “I’m 100% Sure” — The Four Most Expensive Words in Finance

The Degen Cliché:
"I'm certain. My analysis is flawless. LTCM? Those guys were amateurs."

Translation:
“I have never met humility.”

This is the apex predator of arrogance—a trader who believes the universe takes orders. They confuse skill with luck, precision with wisdom, and backtests with divine revelation.

Every crash in history started with someone who was “sure.”

The Inverse Degen Trader’s Wisdom: Intellectual Humility and Process Over Outcome
Veteran investors know the truth:
Nobody knows anything. And that’s okay.

Forecasting is a probabilistic art form wearing a lab coat. The goal is not to predict the future but to behave sensibly in uncertainty.

Mark Twain’s line (which he may or may not have said, but we’ll use it anyway) nails it:
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

Lesson:
Your edge isn’t brilliance. It’s humility. Make “not stupid” your baseline operating system.

Final Analogy:

The degen trader treats markets like a casino—jumping from table to table, chasing the loudest crowd.
The inverse degen treats markets like an ocean.
He builds a sturdy ark (Margin of Safety), loads it with supplies (Patience), studies the currents (Valuation), and sails only when conditions are right.

One gets wet.
The other gets wealthy.