Ah yes—Thanksgiving. A time for family, gratitude, and the annual retelling of the greatest parable in modern finance: Taleb’s Turkey, patron saint of naïve extrapolation.
The turkey is fed every day.
Every feeding reinforces its belief in a benevolent, orderly universe.
Right up until the afternoon before Thanksgiving, when its philosophical framework undergoes a sudden… revision.
Taleb’s punchline:
“The turkey’s feeling of safety peaked precisely when the risk was highest.”
This is how financial markets behave before Minsky moments.
The longer the calm, the deeper the complacency.
The more stable the environment, the more fragile it becomes.
We confuse “never seen” with “impossible.”
We mistake “historically safe” for “permanently safe.”
We fall in love with our own data sets.
Until we don’t.
Financial Takeaway:
This Thanksgiving, learn from the turkey—by doing the opposite of the turkey.
Stability breeds overconfidence.
Overconfidence breeds fragility.
When everything feels safe, tighten your helmet strap.
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